Title: Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification
1Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification
2Method
- NCEP Stage IV data used for precipitation
verification - Stage IV is composite of rain fall observations
and radar estimates - Data has a resolution of 4km
- http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpanl/stage
4/ - Nearest neighbor is used to move stage iv data to
model data to observation site - Verification was performed on 12 hour
accumulations at various forecast hours - For the 24 hr model forecast, verified the
amount of precipitation accumulated for the 12 hr
period ending at the time the 24 hour forecast is
valid (i.e. for a 24 hr fcst from a 15 Nov 00Z
model run, verify the precipitation that fell
during the period 15 Nov 12Z 16 Nov 00Z - Statistics generated for several precipitation
thresholds gt1mm, gt6.25mm(.25in),
gt12.5mm(.5in),gt25mm(1in)
3Nov 25 12Z Model RunWRF 5.4 km
- On the following displays, the solid color is the
model forecast - Dots and other symbols are the Stage IV
precipitation observations - The color and shape of observations symbols
represent the amount of precipitation accumulated
in a 12 hour period ending at the forecast valid
time - Statistics calculated for data displayed in the
image
4Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
18hr Accumulation Period 20081125 18Z 20081126
06Z
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
24hr Accumulation Period 20081126 00Z 20081126
12Z
5Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
30hr Accumulation Period 20081126 06Z 20081126
18Z
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
36hr Accumulation Period 20081126 12Z 20081127
00Z
6Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
42hr Accumulation Period 20081126 18Z 20081127
06Z
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
48hr Accumulation Period 20081127 00Z 20081127
12Z
7Nov 25 12Z Model RunWRF 1.8 km
8Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
18hr Accumulation Period 20081125 18Z 20081126
06Z
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
24hr Accumulation Period 20081126 00Z 20081126
12Z
9Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
30hr Accumulation Period 20081125 06Z 20081126
18Z
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
36hr Accumulation Period 20081126 12Z 20081127
00Z
10Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
42hr Accumulation Period 20081126 18Z 20081127
06Z
11Domain Verification
- Period of verification is from 15 Oct 28 Nov
2008 - During this period there were two major
precipitation events over the area of interest - Not sure why the 30hr forecast shows higher skill
compared to other forecasts - Probably due to the limited number of forecasts
with precipitation for period
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