Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification

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Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification Method NCEP Stage IV data used for precipitation verification Stage IV is composite of rain fall observations and radar estimates ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification


1
Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification
2
Method
  • NCEP Stage IV data used for precipitation
    verification
  • Stage IV is composite of rain fall observations
    and radar estimates
  • Data has a resolution of 4km
  • http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpanl/stage
    4/
  • Nearest neighbor is used to move stage iv data to
    model data to observation site
  • Verification was performed on 12 hour
    accumulations at various forecast hours
  • For the 24 hr model forecast, verified the
    amount of precipitation accumulated for the 12 hr
    period ending at the time the 24 hour forecast is
    valid (i.e. for a 24 hr fcst from a 15 Nov 00Z
    model run, verify the precipitation that fell
    during the period 15 Nov 12Z 16 Nov 00Z
  • Statistics generated for several precipitation
    thresholds gt1mm, gt6.25mm(.25in),
    gt12.5mm(.5in),gt25mm(1in)

3
Nov 25 12Z Model RunWRF 5.4 km
  • On the following displays, the solid color is the
    model forecast
  • Dots and other symbols are the Stage IV
    precipitation observations
  • The color and shape of observations symbols
    represent the amount of precipitation accumulated
    in a 12 hour period ending at the forecast valid
    time
  • Statistics calculated for data displayed in the
    image

4
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
18hr Accumulation Period 20081125 18Z 20081126
06Z
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
24hr Accumulation Period 20081126 00Z 20081126
12Z
5
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
30hr Accumulation Period 20081126 06Z 20081126
18Z
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
36hr Accumulation Period 20081126 12Z 20081127
00Z
6
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
42hr Accumulation Period 20081126 18Z 20081127
06Z
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
48hr Accumulation Period 20081127 00Z 20081127
12Z
7
Nov 25 12Z Model RunWRF 1.8 km
8
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
18hr Accumulation Period 20081125 18Z 20081126
06Z
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
24hr Accumulation Period 20081126 00Z 20081126
12Z
9
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
30hr Accumulation Period 20081125 06Z 20081126
18Z
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
36hr Accumulation Period 20081126 12Z 20081127
00Z
10
Model Run 20081125 12Z Forecast
42hr Accumulation Period 20081126 18Z 20081127
06Z
11
Domain Verification
  • Period of verification is from 15 Oct 28 Nov
    2008
  • During this period there were two major
    precipitation events over the area of interest
  • Not sure why the 30hr forecast shows higher skill
    compared to other forecasts
  • Probably due to the limited number of forecasts
    with precipitation for period

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