Scenario Planning

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Scenario Planning

• Marlie Sanderson
• Director of Transportation Planning

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Location Map

• University of Florida

Gainesville
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Gainesville MPO- Voting Members
City of Gainesville Commission
Alachua County Commission
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Before Scenario Planning
Year 2025 Failing Roads

• Get the red out of the plans

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Before Scenario Planning
Too much reliance on computer data
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Scenario Planning

• Year 2025 Plan
• Year 2035 Plan
• Year 2040 Plan

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Scenario Planning

• Year 2025 Plan
• Year 2035 Plan
• Year 2040 Plan

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• Year 2025 Plan
• Transportation / Land Use Interaction

4 Land Use Scenarios
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(No Transcript)
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Land Use Evaluation

• Amount of new land consumed

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Land Use Evaluation

• Daily Transit Ridership

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Land Use Evaluation

• Congested Lane Miles

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Land Use Evaluation

• Change in Vehicle Emissions

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Scenario Planning

• Year 2025 Plan
• Year 2035 Plan
• Year 2040 Plan

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Year 2035 Plan

• One Land Use/
• Peak Oil Scenario

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Increase Cost of Gasoline
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Peak Oil Scenario- Adjustment Factors
Increase gasoline cost from 2.50 to 10.00 per
gallon
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Peak Oil Scenario- Adjustment Factors
Adjust automobile ownership
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Peak Oil Scenario- Adjustment Factors
Adjust automobile ownership in traffic analysis
zones (TAZ)
High Accessibility TAZ Adjustment Factor
0 auto households 10 increase
1 auto households 15 increase
2 auto households 10 decrease
3 auto households 15 decrease
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Overall Accessibility- Year 2035
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Scenario Planning

• Year 2025 Plan
• Year 2035 Plan
• Year 2040 Plan

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Year 2040 Plan

• Transit Emphasis-
• Scenario 2

• Highway Emphasis-
• Scenario 1

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Year 2040 Scenario 3 -

• Combination of best transit and highway projects

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Lessons Learned

• Not enough growth in 20 years to make a
  difference.

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Lessons Learned

• Land use planning is the responsibility of local
  governments, not transportation planners.

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Lessons Learned

• Great tool to consider how transportation
  investments affect land use decisions.

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Lessons Learned

• Final plan is more comprehensive and is not just
  a list of projects.

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Lessons Learned

• Considerable interest and curiosity by elected
  officials and other citizens.

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Contact Information

• Marlie Sanderson
• Gainesville, Florida MPO
• [phone]
• sanderson_at_ncfrpc.org