Water Demand In Dhaka City

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Water Demand In Dhaka City
Dr A.K. ENAMUL HAQUE Co-authors MUNTASIR
CHAUDHURY PARVEZ KARIM ABBASI
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Objectives

• Assessing the demand for water for domestic,
  commercial and industrial users for the next 25
  years in Dhaka.

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Factors affecting demand for water

• Demand for water, by definition, includes the
  amount of water demanded by a unit of consumption
  for given socio-economic conditions, pricing
  strategy, basic human needs and for a given level
  of quality of life
• Therefore, to understand demand
• Household, commercial and industrial
• For household demand analysis
• Study conducted
• Detailed Household Survey

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OUR PRESENTATIONS

• HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
• DESIGN PHASE
• IMPLEMENTATION
• PROFILE OF HOUSEHOLD IN DHAKA
• ESTIMATION OF DEMAND FOR WATER

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

• SURVEY DATA COLLECTED FROM ALL 7 DWASA Zones
• POPULATION CHARATERISTICS
• BASED ON GIS MAPPING OF 30 WARDS (CENSUS) OF
  HOUSE TYPES TO REPRESENT ALL INHABITANTS OF DHAKA
  CITY CONNECTED TO DWASA
• 5 TYPES OF HOUSES ARE DEFINED
• Katcha - wall made of bamboo etc
• Semi-Pucca - brick wall and tin roof
• One-storey- concrete roof
• Mullti-storey-2 to 6 floors
• Hi-rise - 7 or more

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Sampling Process

• BASED ON GIS MAP OF HOUSES IN 30 WARDS.
• GIS Data from various Zones
• Sample is proportional to distribution of house
  by type in each zone

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The SAMPLE
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THE INSTRUMENTS

• QUESTIONNIARES
• Several Modules Major ones are
• HOUSE CHARACTERISTICS
• WATER USE AND USE OF GADGETS
• PROBLEMS IN WATER DEMAND
• LIFE STYLE RELATED QUESTIONS
• INCOME, EDUCATION, ETC. PROFILE OF MEMBERS OF THE
  HOUSEHOLD

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Survey implementation rules

• 13 members in the survey team
• 2 one male and one female members in each team.
  
• Each zone was split into blocks using major
  roads. Each survey team was given a unique
  starting point for each day of survey.
  systematic stratified random sampling
• A master table using house type was used to
  select a sample using pre-defined structure of
  sample selection.

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Basic survey rules

• Each sample must meet the criteria of the sample
  in terms house type.
• No U Turn at any point or going back
• Two consecutive left or right turns on a road are
  not allowed
• In case of a dead-end road, the team can fall
  back to the point from where they can take a
  turn.

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Table 2.2 Age of the Household
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Characteristics in our houses
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House type by income group
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Demand Side issues
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Water consumption by house type
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Water consumption by living standard
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Water Consumption by ranges of LCD
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What factors affect water consumption?

• Regression output

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Water quality issues
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Water supply interruptions
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Source of Water
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Demand forecast model
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Existing DWASA zones
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Demand 2005-2030 - baseline
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5 cases of improvement!

• Case I Improvement in leakages from 30 to 20
• Case II Vertical rise in the height of
  multi-storey and hi-rise buildings
• Case III Improvement in System loss plus
  Vertical rise of the city buildings
• Case IV Demand Management
• Case V Improvement in system loss plus vertical
  rise in heights of houses plus demand management

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Baseline plus 5 cases
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LCD for baseline and 5 cases
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Counterfactual scenarios of changes over time

• Scenario I Like that of Motijheel Thana
• Scenario II Like that of Ramna-Eskaton Area
• Scenario III Like that of Mohakhali Thana
• Scenario IV A Mixed Area like
  Motijheel-Mohakhali-Ramna combined

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Counterfactual scenarios
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Scenario 1 Demand MLD
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LCD for Scenario 1 Motijheel
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Scenario II Ramna-Eskaton
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Scenario II LCD
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Scenario III Mohakhali
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Scenario III LCD
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Scenario IV Mixed
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Scenario IV LCD
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Literature on LCD some findings
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Demand Management Aspects
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Cumulative Probabilities
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Cumulative Probabilities
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Summary

• Business as Usual
• Baseline
• Optimistic scenario
• Mixed Case V
• Pessimistic scenario
• Ramna-Eskaton Case V

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Extended DWASA areas
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Pessimistic
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Baseline.
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Optimistic case