Disclaimer

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Disclaimer
The material contained in this PPT is a raw
model output and research product. This is meant
for scientific use. For any clarification/interpre
tation, please contact India Meteorological
Department.
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INITIAL CONDITION 14th August 2015
Working group on Extended Range Prediction
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India
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• This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS
  (T126 T382) and GFSbc (T126 T382) (each 11
  members) .

Real-time forecast based on 14th August 2015
initial condition
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Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa
(by MME)
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Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean
sea level pressure (by MME)
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Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature (by MME)
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Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature Anomaly (by MME)
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Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)
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Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa
and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)
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Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)
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MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days
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Area averaged rainfall over homogeneous regions
predicted by MME
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Area averaged rainfall over MZI region predicted
by MME
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Area averaged rainfall over CEI region predicted
by MME
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Area averaged rainfall over NEI region predicted
by MME
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Area averaged rainfall over NWI region predicted
by MME
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Area averaged rainfall over SPI region predicted
by MME
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Key points from the present forecast

• The next 20 days forecast indicates that
• Rainfall, MSLP and other charts indicate that the
  large scale weak monsoon condition will continue
  for next 10-15 days.
• It was forecasted earlier that a fresh convective
  activity will move from Indian ocean to southern
  tip of peninsula around 20th Aug. But further
  propagation of convection towards north will be
  hampered due to the development of two cyclonic
  systems over central Pacific.
• It is expected that after the dissipation of
  these two systems, convection over Bay of Bengal
  may increase by the end of August.
• Overall rainfall activity will be below normal in
  the month of August.

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MISO forecast and its verification
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MISO forecast and its verification
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MISO forecast and its verification
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Thanks..