Demographic changes in the UK, Part 1 Joan Garrod

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Demographic changes in the UK, Part 1Joan Garrod
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Demography

• Demography is the study of populations.
• Demographic trends are developments that affect
  the composition of a population, including
  changes in
• birth and death rates
• how long people are expected to live
• the proportion of males and females
• migration both into and out of the country
• There have been many significant changes in the
  UK population since 1900.
• Why do you think that the study of a population
  is important?

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Birth rates

• The birth rates in a population are influenced by
  many things.
• One important factor is obviously the number of
  women of childbearing age in a population.
• Overall, birth rates have fallen steadily since
  1900.
• Exceptions are the two baby booms after each of
  the two world wars, the one in the 1960s and an
  echo in the 1980s as the children of the 1960s
  boom reached childbearing age.
• The fall in the birth rate in 2013 was the
  largest annual decrease since 1975.
• What factors can you think of that might cause
  birth rates to fall?

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Crude birth rate

• There are several different ways of measuring
  birth rates.
• One measure of the births occurring in a society
  is the crude birth rate (CBR).
• The crude birth rate is the number of live births
  per thousand of the total population in a given
  year.
• As a measure it is crude in that it measures
  the number of live births per thousand of
  everybody else in the population men, children
  and older women.
• What do you think the crude birth rate is
  currently?
• The CBR for 2014 is estimated at 12.22.
• In 1900, it was 26. See the graph on the next
  page. (Source adapted from data from the Office
  for National Statistics licensed under the Open
  Government Licence v.3.0.)

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Changes in the UK crude birth rate
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Fertility rate

• A more satisfactory measure of birth rates is the
  fertility rate.
• The fertility rate is the number of live births
  per thousand women of childbearing age in a given
  year.
• For demographic purposes, the childbearing period
  is reckoned as 15 to 44.
• The next slide shows UK fertility rates for
  selected years. (Source adapted from data from
  the Office for National Statistics licensed under
  the Open Government Licence v.3.0.)

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UK fertility rates in selected years
Year Fertility rate Comment
1901 3.5
1911 2.8
1921 2.4
1931 1.8 Economic depression
1951 2.4
1961 2.6 Baby boom
1971 2.0
1981 1.7
1991 1.8
2001 1.91
2013 1.85
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Total fertility rate

• Yet another measure of births in a population is
  the total fertility rate.
• The total fertility rate is the number of
  children a woman in a given population is likely
  to have by the end of her childbearing years,
  based on the current birth rate in that
  population.
• In 2013 the UK total fertility rate was 1.94.
• The total fertility rate also gives us another
  measure, the CFS completed family size.

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Reasons for the fall in birth rate (1)

• The fall in the infant mortality rate. Once
  parents knew that children had a better chance of
  survival, they didnt have as many.
• The advent of the welfare state. This meant that
  people received some financial support in their
  old age, rather than having to rely on their
  children to look after them.
• The availability of reliable contraception and
  legalised abortion. Families are now more easily
  able to plan the number of children they wish to
  have.
• The growing number of women in employment. There
  are difficulties involved in being in paid work
  and raising a family. Working women tend to delay
  having children, and older mothers have fewer
  children.

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Reasons for the fall in birth rate (2)

• The rise in the age of compulsory education. This
  means that children are dependent for longer.
• The rising economic costs of parenthood. Figures
  for 2015 show the average cost of raising a child
  to the age of 21 stands at 230,000.
• The growing proportion of women in higher
  education and following careers. This leads to
  either delayed motherhood or choosing not to have
  children at all.
• Voluntary childlessness. The proportion of
  childless women is rising. 19 of women born in
  1968 (whose childbearing years are assumed to be
  over) are childless, compared to 11 of women
  born in 1941.

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Trends in UK births (1)

• Almost half (47.4) of births now occur outside
  marriage or a civil partnership, with just over
  half (52.6) taking place within marriage or
  civil partnership. This reflects changes in
  social norms.
• Over a quarter (26.5) of births are now to women
  born outside the UK. This reflects the fact that
  migrants to the UK have a younger age profile
  than the population as a whole, so a greater
  proportion of them are in their childbearing
  years. Some come from societies where the average
  family size is higher than in the UK, and
  cultural norms have a significant effect on birth
  rates.

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Trends in UK births (2)

• Another trend in childbearing is the rise in the
  average age of mothers. In 2014, this rose to 30
  for the first time. Suggested reasons for the
  rise include
• more women participating in higher education and
  going on to establish a career
• improvements in fertility treatment
• Around 4 of all UK births are now to women aged
  40 and over. This is linked to the changes above.

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Death rates

• The deaths in a population are measured by the
  crude death rate.
• The crude death rate is the number of deaths per
  thousand of the population in a given year.
• It is sometimes referred to as the mortality
  rate.
• The current UK death rate is 9.34. In 1900 it was
  around 16.
• What reasons can you think of for the fall in the
  death rate since 1900?

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Age distribution

• The age distribution of a population is the
  proportion of people in different age groups
  throughout the population.
• The UK has moved from a position of high birth
  rates and high death rates to one of low birth
  rates and low death rates.
• This results in an ageing population, that is one
  with a relatively high proportion of older
  people.
• What do you think are some of the consequences of
  an ageing population?

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End of Part 1

• Look out for Part 2 of Demographic changes in
  the UK in the next issue of SOCIOLOGY REVIEW.
• All data is adapted from the Office for National
  Statistics licensed under the Open Government
  Licence v.3.0 (www.ons.gov.uk).