Kein Folientitel

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CAPRICommon Agricultural Policy Regional Impact
? POLICIES DATA COLLECTED FOR NOECD COUNTRIES
? THE AGGREGATION METHOD
? DEMANDE SYSTEM ESTIMATION
? SENSITIVITY TEST WITH THE MARKET MODULE
? PROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCL
Kamel ELOUHICHI Belgium Team

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POLICY DATA COLLECTED FOR NOECD COUNTRIES

• ? TRQ Tariff rate quota
• TRQNT the TRQ in tons
• TAPREF ad valorem tariff applied inside the TRQ
• TAMF ad valorem tariff outside the TRQ

? TARS Most favourite nation specific tariff
? PSE Producer subsidy equivalent ? CSE
Consumer subsidy equivalent

• ? Expsub Per unit export subsidy
• ? Exps Subsidized exports
• ? Qute WTO quantity limit on subsidized exports

? Cpri Consumer price ? Ppri Producer price ?
Padm Administrative price
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ORGANISATION OF COUNTRY DATA POLICIES
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AGREGATION RULE
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INTRODUCTION OF DATA POLICIES IN THE MODEL
Bologna 25-26/03/2003
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POLICY DATA COVERAGE FOR NOECD COUNTRIES
CEE (11 C) CAD (19 C) MED (11 C) CHN (1 C) IND (1 C) ACP (74 C) ROW (91 C) Sources
TRQ Most Most Most Most Most Most Most AMAD/GTAP 5
TARS Most Most Most Most Most Most Most AMAD/WTO
PSE All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002)
CSE All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002)
Expsub Most Few Few None None Few Few WTO / GTAP 5
Exps Most Few Few None None Few Few WTO
Qute Most Few Few None None Few Few WTO
Cpri All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002)
Ppri All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002)
Padm All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002)
Import All All All All All Most Most FAO (2002)
D. sale All All All All All Most Most FAO (2002)
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THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM (AIDS MODEL)
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THEORETICAL PROPERTIES OF LA/AIDS MODEL
Homogeneity
Adding-up
Symmetry
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APPROACH USED TO ESTIMATING DEMAND ELASTICITIES
FROM THE LA/AIDS MODEL
Bologna 25-26/03/2003
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GROUPS OF PRODUCTS (SEPARABILITY ASSUMPTIONS)
CEREALS and SUGAR OILSEEDS and VEGETABLES OILS DAIRY PRODUCTS FRUITS MEATS and EGGS WINE
SOFT WHEAT DURUM WHEAT RYE AND MESLIN BARLEY OATS MAIZE OTHER CEREALS RICE MILLED STARCH SUGAR OLIVES FOR OIL OTHER OILSEEDS PULSES POTATOES TOMATOES OTHER VEGETABLES RAPE SEED OIL SUNFL-OWER SEED OIL SOYA OIL OLIVE OIL COW MILK BUTTER SKIMMED MILK POWDER CHEESE FRESH MILK PRODUCTS CREAMS CONCENTRA-TED MILK WHOLE MILK POWDER APPLES PEAR PEACHES CITRUS OTHER FRUITS TABLE GRAPES BEEF VEAL PORK SHEEP GOAT POULTRY EGGS TABLE WINE OTHER WINE
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PRELIMINARY RESULTS BASED ON THE GROUP OF
CEREALS LA/AIDS MODEL

• 1
• SOFT WHEAT
• 2
• DURUM WHEAT
• 3
• MAIZE
• 4
• OTHER CEREALS
• (RYE AND MESLIN,
• BARLEY,OATS, OTHER CEREALS)

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ESTIMATED MARSHALLIAN ELASTICITIES AT THE SAMPLE
MEANPRELIMINARY RESULTS FRENCH MARKET -
CEREALS - LA/AIDS MODEL
PRICE
SOFT WHEAT DURUM WHEAT MAIZE OTHER CEREALS EXP
SOFT WHEAT -2,094 (1.257) 1,118 (0.109)
DURUM WHEAT -4,911 (1.138) 0,557 (0.336)
MAIZE 7,797 (18.355) 0.571 (1.413)
OTHER CEREALS -15,911 (4.921) -1.371 (0.475)

• Note 1 standard errors are in parentheses
• Note 2 significant at the 5
• Note 3 significant at the 10

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SENSIBILITY ANALYSIS
?The first example of sensitivity test
?Change the Armington elasticities (?1, ?2) of
wheat at the EU and we observe the change of

• SP1 CES scale parameter
• SP2 CES scale parameter second stage
• dp CES distribution parameter

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TWO STAGE ARMINGTON SYSTEM
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SENSIBILITY ANALYSIS
?The second example of sensitivity test
? Change the shift factor in the supply equation
to increase supply for the EU by 10 and compare

• ?Production
• Price
• Imports and exports
• Arm1 Armington first stage aggregate
• Arm2 Armington second stage aggregate
• Arm1p Average price of foreign origins
• Arm2p Average price of foreign an domestic
  origins
• For different sets of Armington elasticities

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PROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCL

• WP 1 CAPRI Data Base
• Collection of data premium for Bel. and Lux.
• Verification of grassland yields for Bel. and
  Lux.
• Verification of cost estimations for Bel. and Lux.

WP 4 Regional Disaggregation of the Market
Module Access to additional sources to complete
the policy database for NOECD
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PROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCL
WP 8 Revision of the Market Module 1.
Continuation of the estimation of the
elasticities of the demand for human
consumption 2. Sensibility tests of Armington
elasticities of substitution 3. Estimation of
Armington elasticities of substitution 4.
Validation of the market module from the
calibration years 1997-1998-1999 to the
validation years 2000-2000-2002
WP 11 reference run
WP 12 Simulation run
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Thank you for your attention