Why Community Modeling? The CCMP perspective

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Why Community Modeling? The CCMP perspective

• Alexey Voinov
• Chesapeake Research Consortium
• alexey.voinov_at_uvm.edu

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Chesapeake Bay Modeling

• Probably one of the best studied estuaries in the
  World
• Main issues water quality, collapse of oysters,
  decline in fisheries
• Chesapeake Bay Program models
• Airshed - CMAS
• Watershed - HSPF
• Estuary - CE-QUAL-ICM
• Decision making
• Interstate negotiations on nutrient reductions -
  TMDL program

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Chesapeake Bay Program
It is the opinion of this team that the Water
Quality Model does not currently provide
information suitable for major management
decisions and that use of the model for such
purposes should be suspended. (STAC 1999,
Analysis and Recommendations, p. 2).

• Why another model, when there is the CBP effort?
• Closed and contained suit of models
• Some parts are open (HSPF)
• Development is slow
• Phase 4.3 Model - 2003
• Phase 5 Model - In development
• Interaction is limited
• How can one model serve all?

The Chesapeake Bay Programs reliance on a
single model structure had stifled scientific
advances and reduced estimates of confidence in
model output (CBP STAC report).
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Chesapeake Community Modeling program

• The CRC Chesapeake Community Modeling program
  (CCMP) has been implemented through the decisions
  of the June, 2002 meeting of the CRC member
  institution modeling community and the subsequent
  Board approval in July, 2003
• The goal of the CCMP is to develop a community
  modeling system of model code, databases, and
  documentation for all aspects of basin processes.
  Model code will be distributed over the
  world-wide-web for use and revision
• Operational funding provided by NOAA

Linden Group charge - Models should be open
source and supported by a substantial user
community - Models should have institutional
homes. - Data integration, prediction and
uncertainty quantification are essential aspects
of the modeling process. - Modeling activity
should be integrated into the educational mission
of the CRC institutions. - Models should be
incorporate modern numerics as well as
physical/biological parameterizations.
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• Four Major Goals
• (from the CRC CCMP Implementation Plan)
• Facilitate, focus and coordinate the intellectual
  
• resources of the CRC institutions.
• 2) Promote free and open exchange of
  information,
• data models and results.
• Develop a state-of-the-art modeling system for
  research, management and operational
  applications.
• Integrate and facilitate combined modeling and
  observational efforts in Chesapeake Bay and its
• watershed.

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Chesapeake Community Modeling Program
http//ccmp.chesapeake.org/CCMP/
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A CCMP project
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SourceForge support
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CCMP umbrella

• HSPF - Chesapeake Bay Program watershed model
• ChesROMS - nowcast and forecast of 3D
  hydrodynamic circulation, temperature and
  salinity, sediment transport, biogeochemical and
  ecosystem states
• C3PO - Chesapeake 3D Physical Oceanographic model
• POMChes - implementation of the Princeton Ocean
  Model
• SME with LHEM - Spatial Modeling Environment
  Library of Hydro-ecological Modules
• CE-QUAL-ICM - Cercos 4000 cell model
• In progress
• SPARROW
• PIHM

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Participatory modeling

• Companion modeling, mediated modeling, shared
  vision planning
• Participatory modeling is the process of
  incorporating stakeholders, often including the
  public, and decision-makers into the modeling
  process to support decisions involving complex
  environmental questions
• More open and integrated planning processes is a
  way to avoid potential conflict, misunderstanding
  and even litigation
• A platform for integrating scientific knowledge
  with local knowledge
• Goal driven
• Modeling as a process