The Health Implications of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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The Health Implications of Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
Emerging Growth Issues Workshop November 30,
2001 Dr. Laurence S. Kalkstein Katrina L.
Frank University of Delaware Center for Climatic
Research Newark, Delaware 19716
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Maximum Temperature vs. Mortality New York, New
York, and Jacksonville, Florida
New York Jacksonville
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Important Air Masses
DM Dry Moderate DP Dry Polar DT Dry
Tropical MM Moist Moderate MP Moist Polar MT
Moist Tropical MT Moist Tropical Plus TR
Transition
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)
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Total Mortality by Air Mass Rome, Italy
Mean Excess Mortality (variation from the
baseline)
Air Mass
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Excess Mortality Algorithm When DT Air Mass is
Forecast for Tomorrow
Deaths 45.92 (-0.08 x TS) (2.05 x DIR)
(1.61 x ATmin1) ) (0.75 x ATmin2) )
Where TS time of season (days since 14
May) DIR day in row of an oppressive air
mass ATmin1) minimum apparent temperature
forecast for tomorrow ATmin2) minimum apparent
temperature forecast for day after tomorrow
R2 0.460
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Based on a future climate model developed at
Princeton Universitys Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory
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Urban Heat Island Problems

• Minimum temperatures rise more than maximum
• - still very harmful because . . .
• Air conditioning may contribute to problem
• However, air conditioning saves lives
• - a dilemma

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Are Cool Roofs Effective? Preliminary Results
from a Philadelphia Experiment

• During the hottest air masses, internal
  temperatures are significantly cooler in
  white-roofed house
• External temperatures are also affected by cool
  design
• Cool initiatives may provide means to save
  lives of poor, urban population during heat waves

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Heat Health Watch Warning Systems

• Operational
• Dayton/Cincinnati, Ohio
• New Orleans, Louisiana
• Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Phoenix, Arizona
• Rome, Italy
• Shanghai, China
• Toronto, Canada
• Washington, D. C.

• Developing
• All WSOs in Louisiana,
• Mississippi, and Arkansas

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Intervention Actions Taken byPhiladelphia
Department of Public Health When Health Warning
is Issued

• Media announcement
• Promotion of the buddy system
• Activation of the heatline
• Home visits
• Nursing and personal care boarding home
  intervention
• Halt of utility service suspensions
• Increased emergency medical service staffing
• Daytime outreach to the homeless
• Air conditioned service facility capability

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