The Future of Mobile Communications in the EU

1
The Future of Mobile Communications in the EU
Carlos Rodríguez Casal


2
Now 3G

• Coordination to achieve full compatibility
• Support integration and social innovation
• Develop new models for pricing, payment and
  revenue sharing
• Be a follower in regulatory strategy

3
Mobile technologies
Bit-rate
100M
UWB
4G
10M
WLAN
Bluetooth

1M
3G
2G
100K
10K
Satellite (LEOs)
Coverage/Mobility
Fixed
Local
Wide-Area
Adapted from Ericsson (2001), Fukada et. al
(2002)
4
Forecast Scenarios

• Linear vision ( gt 2010 )
• Smooth migration from 3G to 4G
• Non-linear vision ( gt 2008 )
• WLAN the predominant technology
• Long term vision ( gt 2020 )
• Network of networks

5
Potential major market segments

• 3G
• Relieve congestion in 2G/2.5G
• Video-based applications
• Forecast scenarios
• Linear 4G
• Substitution and evolution of 3G
• Non-linear evolution (WLAN)
• As a network hotspots (i.e. stand-alone network)
• As part of a cellular network

6
Forecast roll-out (linear)
7
(No Transcript)
8
Short term vision

• Limited user experience of mobile broadband
  services
• Difficult balance between competition and
  economies of scale
• Strong regional competition
• Recommendation stimulate 3G commercialisation
  and support harmonization of approaches

9
Long term vision

• Not only a new label
• Not only public
• Not only higher rates
• Interconnection
• Bottlenecks
• Success factors

10
ICT impact on environmental sustainability
11
THANKS

• The views expressed in this paper are purely
  those of the author and do not necessarily
  reflect those of the European Commission.