Environmental Applications

1
Environmental Applications
CDPW October, 2005
Paul Knight Penn State University, University
Park, PA
WHEAT SCAB PREDICTIONS
SPRING CREEK WATERSHED BUDGET
GYPSY MOTH TRAJECTORIES
Excerpting the Stage 3-Doppler Radar rainfall
estimates (Multi-Sensor precipitation) for the
area encompassing the Spring Creek Watershed
yielded approximately 30 grid boxes (16sqkm) with
hourly/daily precipitation values. Additionally,
Pennsylvania DEP funded the purchase of 7 Davis
weather stations to be used to further adjust the
basin estimated rainfall.
Fusarium Head Blight causes large losses among
wheat growers every year. The mold growth can be
arrested with treatments if it is found early
enough in the head development. The main
atmospheric contributors are warmth and
moisture. Using the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC 20)
hourly analysis fields of surface temperature
and dewpoint along with the Stage 3-Doppler Radar
rainfall estimates, a grid domain with 20km
resolution has been created to assess the daily
risk of Wheat Scab across the eastern two-thirds
of the United States.
Using the HYSPLIT trajectory model, the gypsy
moth progression across Lake Michigan was
examined to see what role low-level wind
trajectories play in its westward
migration. Since the moth is only airborne for a
few weeks during its life, the study focused on
wind conditions during the mid-late spring.
Literally thousands of gypsy moth traps are used
to track the pests movement into new landscapes.
The catch data indicated rapid increases at some
point, however synoptic scale data from the
NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 2 data set showed little
correlation with weather patterns during these
migration episodes.
The Spring Creek Watershed occupies approximately
157 square miles in southern Centre County. Since
there are no surface reservoirs, the water
budget is straightforward Input Runoff
Ground Storage Evapo-Transpiration. The
challenge is an accurate assessment of ET.
Penman-Monteith estimates have been modified
based on land-use data.
The Department of Agriculture has provided
successive grants to Penn State and Ohio State
to develop, evaluate and improve the wheat scab
risk tool. Validation studies using independent
data networks indicate that temperature estimates
are within 2F, but rain occurrences are
over-estimated by Stage 3 data.