DSM2 Calibration: Optimization Weighting Scheme Using Management Objectives

1
DSM2 CalibrationOptimization Weighting Scheme
Using Management Objectives

• Marianne Guerin

2
Observation DSM2 is Used as a Delta Management
Tool

• Define calibration metric in operational terms
• First Define which targets - stage, flow, EC -
  are important to Delta water management
• Then Sensitivity analysis and parameter
  correlation
• Next Define objective function and specify
  weights
• Rough Calibration
• Selected time spans iterative fine calibration
  to minimize model error

3
Minimize Root Mean Square Error

• Weights normalize different observation types
  (units, magnitudes, data accuracy)
• Prioritize
• Total weight by observation type (Swi, Swj, Swk)
  on stage (s), flow and velocity (f), and EC (c)
• Individual weights within each category

4
Stage

• South Delta Ag. Barriers
• Western model boundary
• HORB ?
• Sac R. Boundary?

5
Flow or Velocity

• Old and Middle Rivers
• QWEST
• VAMP response
• DCC response

6
EC Compliance Points

• West Delta
• Jersey Point, Emmaton

• South Delta
• Old R. nr Middle R., Tracy Rd. Bridge, Brandt
  Bridge

• Interior Delta
• SF Mokelumne, SJR San Andreas

X2 ?

• Export Area
• West Canal at CCFB, DMC at Tracy PP

• Contra Costa Canal, SJR at Antioch

7
Calibration Objective Function Defining a
Weighting Scheme

• Operational targets
• Stage
• Flow
• Salinity targets
• EC
• X2

1. Quantify goodness of fit
2. By-hand post-processing
3. Automated needs software
4. Purchase/public domain
5. Develop
6. Zonation to simplify

• Benefit to Management Approach
• Peer-review-able body of information
• Primary use of DSM2
• Clarifies reliability of model-based management
  decisions