?????? ? ????????????? ????????????? ????????? ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF THE CLIMATIC CHANGES

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?????? ? ????????????? ?????????????
?????????ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF THE
CLIMATIC CHANGES

• Shishlov V.I., Dyukarev E.A.
• Institute for optical monitoring SB RAS, Tomsk

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Annual mean temperature in the Northern
Hemisphere Kandlikar, McRae, 1995
Long-term climate changes
Global temperature Hansen et al, 2001,
http//www.giss.nasa.gov/data/
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Changes of annual mean temperature
Hansen et al, 2001, http//www.giss.nasa.gov/data
/
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SPACE Geosphere
Global climate
OCEAN Macro ecosystem
Macro climate (Biosphere
of continent) (Climate of
continent)
ATMOSPHERE Biom
Regional climate
Troposphere Ecosystem
Local climate Anthropoecosystem
Soil

Hydrosphere
Earth's crust
Lithosphere active layer
LITHOSPHERE
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Changes of trajectories and areas of state
ensembles of the climate
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Methodology and techniques of the
system-evolutionary approach
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System-evolutionary paradigm of existence and
evolution of the open composite-organized systems
(OCOS)

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• OCOS with a single cycle of correlated
  processes, which satisfy to the principle of a
  single system of relations among elements and
  processes in a multilevel macrosystem, does not
  evolve at continuous maintenance of the
  correlation between intrasystem and intersystem
  relations.
• Violation of correlation between intrasystem and
  intersystem relations leads to reorganization of
  the cycle of correlated processes and structure
  transformations. OCOCS evolve at irreversible
  structure transformations and intrasystem
  relations transformation.
• Necessary conditions for processes regularity
  (rhythm) existence are
• a presence of correlated integrity between
  processes relation and functional elements of
  subsystems, where processes take place,
• rhythms synchronization for conjugate processes.
• Subsystem ceases to exist if at change of
  intersystem relations occurs irreversible
  structure transformations, after which the
  correlation of intrasystem relations and cycle of
  correlated processes does not restore.

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Conception of changes of open dynamic systems
with regularly forced impacts

• Regularity of changes exists at compliance of
  the principle of a single cycle of correlated
  processes in a multilevel system.
• Situational violations of regular rhythms (or
  arrhythmias) caused by an ambiguity of
  transitional processes (at perturbation impact),
  a transformation at components interaction, and
  non-synchronism of processes.
• Oscillations caused by a reorganization of
  processes cycle for a certain time at
  conditionally reversible change of structure
  elements (relations transformation).
• Directional changes caused by irreversible
  transformations of relation, when forms a new
  cycle of conditionally correlated processes.
• Subsequence of conditionally reversible and
  partially reversible transformations of relations
  lead to a chain of differently directed (chaotic)
  changes with trends at some time intervals.

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Conception of the energy-transforming systems
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Types of the climate changeability
Type Scale Manifestation
Centuries oscillations Planet Changes in subsystems of the climate system Chrysies in the biosphere
Interdecadal oscillations Hemisphere Continent Changes in cryosphere, hydrosphere Critical state of biota
Directional changes (10s years) Climatic region Part of continent Trends of estimation characteristics Changes of biom states
Vibrations (1-3 years) Part of continent Region Space non-homogeneous changes of estimation characteristics Changes of nature rhythms
Arrhythmias
? Interseasonal circulation transformations Hemisphere Anomaly air mass circulation Dangerous weather-climate phenomenas Critical state of biota
? Seasonal transformations of components and their relations Part of continent Anomaly in processes course Changes in biorhythms
C Weather-climate phenomena Region Droughts, hurricanes, tornados Critical state of biota
D Multiregime weather-formation process Local Anomaly weather-climate conditions Changes in biorhythms
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Database structure
Climate forming factors (CFF) Circulation factors (CF) South-West transfer (SWT), cyclone (C), anticyclone (A), atmospheric fronts movement (AFM). Phenomena (Ph) rain (?), snow (?), fog (F). Albedo variations (AV) DA, -DA
Weather forming regimes (WFR) Warm and moisture advection (WMA), cold advection (CA), cold advection with precipitation (CAP), radiative heating (RH), radiative heating with night cooling (RHC), equilibrium (Eq), radiative cooling (RC), cooling rain (CR), snowstorm (SS)
Weather classes (WC) Overcast VI, rainy VII, cloudy VIII, clear IX, cold X, frosty XI-XV
Main meteorological variables matrix Pressure (P), temperature (T), humidity (E), wind direction (WD), solar radiation (SR), radiative balance (RB)
Climate portraits, maps Phase portraits, weather maps, climate maps
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Weather-formation process description
NWT
NT
SWT
C
A
NWT
C
CF
?
?
?
?
Ph
??
-??
??
AV
RC
CAP
Eq
WMA
RC
CAP
CR
WFR
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10-11
8-9
6-7
1-5
29-31
28
27
26
25
24
22-23
20-21
Date
XII
XI
X
VII
VI
VII
XI
XII
XI
X
XI
X
VII
WC
740
745
738
743
738
720
750
750
748
747
743
740
730
P, mm
-14
-11
-3
5
37
24
-6
-14
-10
-2
-5
2
513
T, oC
76
73
93
90
80
93
82
75
72
75
80
81
85
E,
NW
NW
N
SW
SW
SW
S
N
NW
NW
NW
W
W-NW
WD
where X(p) is the matrix of states in the stage
p, where p 0,1,2,3,... Lj(p1) is the
operator of transformation of weather forming
regime.
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Temperature changes
Estimation
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Interdecadal oscillations of the climate.
1962-1974. Trajectories on the phase plane of
the estimation characteristics Zw and Zs
Synchronic oscillations Barents Sea ice contents
increase from 27 to 50 (1969) Davydov A.A.,
2001 n days, Ti- daily temperature, Nw
days of cold part of the year, Ns days of
warm part of the year. ? profile
,

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Scheme of formation of a peculiar climatic
situation. Basic processes relations
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Climate vibrations Oct.1994 Oct.1998
Space non-homogeny changes Changes are
synchronic and have equal direction only on the
restricted area Vibrations caused by an sequence
of arrhythmias of the climate forming processes
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Maps of temperature, pressure, and snow depth in
spring 1995
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Temperature and pressure changes in winter 1996
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Maps of temperature, pressure, and snow depth in
spring 1997
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Drought forming in 1999
Zonal transfer Blocking by Azorean anticyclone
Rhythms of daily temperature, pressure and
precipitations
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• The climate system of the Northern Hemisphere
  characterizes by the conditionally correlated
  relations and during evolution it can transforms
  into critical states with mismatch of
  climate-ecological and bioclimatic relations.
• Macro-scale interdecadal oscillations take place
  at reorganization of energy-transformation and
  energy-mass transfer processes between land and
  ocean, which occurs at reorganization of
  processes in the Atmosphere-Ocean-Cryosphere-Land
  system during change of the ice cover in northern
  seas and radiation regime under impact of many
  factors.
• Vibrations of climate forming processes and
  corresponding long-term space non-homogeneous
  changes of weather-climate states in regions are
  manifestation of subsequence of climate forming
  processes arrhythmias and energy-mass transfer
  changes.

Data from National Climatic Data Center,
Ashville, USA were used. http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov