Mitigation of Climate Change

1
Mitigation of Climate Change

• IPCC Working Group III contribution to the
• Fourth Assessment Report

2
The Process

• Three-year process
• Assessment of published literature
• Extensive review by independent and government
  experts
• Summary for Policy Makers approved line-by-line
  by all 180 IPCC member governments (Bangkok, May
  4)
• Full report and technical summary accepted
  without discussion

3
Working Group III Organization

• As part of the IPCC, Working Group III is
  charged to assess available information on the
  science of climate change, in particular that
  arising from human activities. In performing its
  assessments the WGIII is concerned with the
  scientific, technical, environmental, and
  economic and social aspects of mitigation of
  climate change.

4
Working Group III Bureau

• Co-Chairs
• Ogunlade Davidson (Sierra Leone)Bert Metz (The
  Netherlands)
• Vice-Chairs
• Ismail A.R. Elgizouli (Sudan)Eduardo Calvo
  (Peru)Ramón Pichs Madruga (Cuba)R.T.M.
  Sutamihardja (Indonesia)Olaf Hohmeyer
  (Germany)Taha M. Zatari (Saudi Arabia

5
The People

• Lead Authors 168
• From developing countries 55
• From EITs 5
• From OECD countries 108
• Contributing authors 85
• Expert Reviewers 485

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Mitigation potential

• Mitigation potential
• Emission reduction, relative to emission
  baselines, that is economically attractive at a
  given price of carbon
• Market potential
• Based on private costs and private rates of
  return
• Expected to occur under forecast market
  conditions
• Including policies and measures currently in
  place
• Barriers limit actual uptake

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Mitigation potential (cont.)

• Economic potential
• Takes into account social costs and benefits and
  social rates of return,
• Assuming that market efficiency is improved by
  policies and measures
• Barriers are removed

8
All sectors and regions have the potential to
contribute
Note estimates do not include non-technical
options, such as lifestyle changes.
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How can emissions be reduced?
Sector Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030. (Selected)
Energy Supply efficiency fuel switching nuclear power renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy) combined heat and power early applications of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities advanced nuclear power advanced renewables (tidal and wave energy, concentrating solar, solar PV)
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How can emissions be reduced? (cont.)
Sector (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030. (Selected)
Transport More fuel efficient vehicles hybrid vehicles biofuels modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems cycling, walking land-use planning Second generation biofuels higher efficiency aircraft advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries
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How can emissions be reduced? (cont.)
Sector (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030. (Selected)
Industry More efficient electrical equipment heat and power recovery material recycling control of non-CO2 gas emissions Advanced energy efficiency CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture
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How can emissions be reduced? (cont.)
Sector (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030. (Selected)
Buildings Efficient lighting efficient appliances and air conditioners improved insulation solar heating and cooling alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control solar PV integrated in buildings
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Mitigation potential in the industry and
buildings sector till 2030

• Industry
• Potential predominantly in energy intensive
  industries.
• Many efficient installations in developing
  countires
• Barriers include slow stock turnover and (for
  SMEs) lack of financial resources, inability to
  absorb technical information
• Buildings
• About 30 of projected GHG emissions by 2030 can
  be avoided with net economic benefit.
• New buildings gt75 savings compared to current
  (at low to zero additional cost)
• Barriers include availability of technologies,
  financing, cost of reliable information and
  limitations in building designs

14
Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can
contribute to climate change mitigation

• Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns
  and consumer choice in buildings.
• Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in
  light of reward systems
• Reduction of car usage and efficient driving
  style, in relation to urban planning and
  availability of public transport

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There are also co-benefits of mitigation

• Nearterm health benefits from reduced air
  pollution may offset a substantial fraction of
  mitigation costs
• Mitigation can also be positive for energy
  security, balance of trade improvement, provision
  of modern energy services to rural areas,
  sustainable agriculture and employment

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Policies are available to governments to realize
mitigation of climate change

• Effectiveness of policies depends on national
  circumstances, their design, interaction,
  stringency and implementation
• Integrating climate policies in broader
  development policies
• Regulations and standards
• Taxes and charges
• Tradable permits
• Financial incentives
• Voluntary agreements
• Information instruments
• Research and development

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Selected sectoral policies, measures and
instruments that have shown to be environmentally
effective
Sector Policies1, measures and instruments shown to be environmentally effective Key constraints or opportunities
Energy supply Reduction of fossil fuel subsidies Resistance by vested interests may make them difficult to implement
Energy supply Taxes or carbon charges on fossil fuels Resistance by vested interests may make them difficult to implement
Energy supply Feed-in tariffs for renewable energy technologies May be appropriate to create markets for low emissions technologies
Energy supply Renewable energy obligations May be appropriate to create markets for low emissions technologies
Energy supply Producer subsidies May be appropriate to create markets for low emissions technologies
1 Public RDD investment in low emission
technologies have proven to be effective in all
sectors.
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Selected sectoral policies, measures and
instruments that have shown to be environmentally
effective
Sector Policies, measures and instruments shown to be environmentally effective Key constraints or opportunities
Transport Mandatory fuel economy, biofuel blending and CO2 standards for road transport Partial coverage of vehicle fleet may limit effectiveness
Transport Taxes on vehicle purchase, registration, use and motor fuels, road and parking pricing Effectiveness may drop with higher incomes
Transport Influence mobility needs through land use regulations, and infrastructure planning Particularly appropriate for countries that are building up their transportation systems
Transport Investment in attractive public transport facilities and non-motorized forms of transport Particularly appropriate for countries that are building up their transportation systems

1 Public RDD investment in low emission
technologies have proven to be effective in all
sectors.
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Mitigation investments

• Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20
  trillion US till 2030) will have long term
  impacts on GHG emissions.
• The widespread diffusion of low-carbon
  technologies may take many decades, even if early
  investments in these technologies are made
  attractive.
• Returning global energy-related CO2 emissions to
  2005 levels by 2030 would require a large shift
  in the pattern of investment, although the net
  additional investment required ranges from
  negligible to 5-10
• It is often more cost-effective to invest in
  end-use energy efficiency improvement than in
  increasing energy supply

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The importance of technology policies

• The lower the stabilization levels (550 ppm
  CO2-eq or lower) the greater the need for more
  efficient RDD efforts and investment in new
  technologies during the next few decades
• Government support is important for effective
  technology development, innovation and deployment
  through
• financial contributions,
• tax credits,
• standard setting
• market creation.
• BUT, government funding for most energy research
  programmes has been declining for nearly two
  decades now about half of 1980 level.

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International agreements

• Notable achievements of the UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol
  that may provide the foundation for future
  mitigation efforts
• global response to the climate problem,
• stimulation of an array of national policies,
• the creation of an international carbon market
  and
• new institutional mechanisms

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International agreements (cont.)

• Future agreements
• Greater cooperative efforts to reduce emissions
  will help to reduce global costs for achieving a
  given level of mitigation, or will improve
  environmental effectiveness
• Improving, and expanding the scope of, market
  mechanisms (such as emission trading, Joint
  Implementation and CDM) could reduce overall
  mitigation costs
• Assessed literature on future agreements on basis
  of criteria for environmental/ cost
  effectiveness, distributional/ institutional
  feasibility

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Examples of side-effects of climate mitigation
OPTIONS Energy efficiency, renewables, fuel-switching SYNERGIES air quality supply security employment costs (efficiency) TRADEOFFS particulate emissions (diesel) biodiversity (biofuels) costs (renewables)
waste landfill gas capture, incineration health safety employment energy advantages ground water pollution costs
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Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions
as much as specific climate policies
Sectors Non-climate policies -- Candidates for integrating climate concerns Possible influence ( of global emissions)
Macro-economy Taxes, subsidies, other fiscal policies All GHG emissions (100)
Electricity Diversification to low-carbon sources, demand management, limit distribution losses Electricity sector emissions (20 )
Oil-imports Diversification energy sources/decrease intensity -gt enhance energy security GHGs from oil product imports (20 )
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Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions
as much as specific climate policies
Sectors Non-climate policies -- Candidates for integrating climate concerns Possible influence ( of global emissions)
Insurance (buildings, infrastructure) Differentiated premiums, liability insurance exclusion, improved conditions for green products GHG emissions buildings, transport (20)
Bank lending Sector/ country strategies, avoid lock-in into old technologies in developing countries Notably development projects (25)
Rural energy Policies promoting LPG, kerosene and electricity for cooking Extra emissions over biomass (lt2 )
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The Summary for Policy Makers , the Technical
Summary and the full Report (subject to editing)
can be downloaded from www.mnp.nl/ipccFurther
informationIPCC Working Group III Technical
Support Unit at the Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agencyipcc3tsu_at_mnp.nl
Sources
Bert Metz Co-chair IPCC WG III Risoe
International Energy Conference, Roskilde,
Denmark, May 22, 2007