The

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The Pangaea Simulator -- An Decision-Maker-Orien
ted International Climate Simulator

• Drew Jones
• Sustainability Institute
• Working with Ventana Systems
• and MIT System Dynamics Group
• September 2008

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Simulation Creation Team

• Lead Modeler
• Dr. Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems
• http//www.metasd.com/index.html
• Modeling, Framing, and Presentation Design
• Andrew Jones, Sustainability Institute
• http//www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/
• apjones_at_sustainer.org
• Dr. Lori Siegel, contractor to SI
• Modeling and Framing
• Dr. John Sterman, MIT
• http//web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/

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Climate Interactive is a growing coalition of
business, academic, nonprofit organizations
Creating a portfolio of fast, accessible, robust,
transparent simulations to help address climate
change
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Climate Interactive Senior Team Members
Dr. John Sterman, MIT Sloan School of
Management Director, System Dynamics
Group Author, Business Dynamics Systems Thinking
and Modeling for a Complex World
Dr. Peter Senge, MIT Senior Lecturer, Sloan
School of Management Founding Chairman, Society
for Organizational Learning Author, The Fifth
Discipline
Dr. Michelle Erickson, Citigroup Director,
Sustainable Information Technology Program
Dr. Bill Moomaw, The Fletcher School, Tufts
University Director of the Center for
International Environment Resource Policy Lead
author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2003 (IPCC)
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Purpose of Simulator is to Help Decision Makers
Understand Dynamics of Climate Mitigation
Inputs
Outputs

• Fossil fuel emissions by countries or economy
  group
• Land use emissions
• Additional sequestration from aforestation
• Other greenhouse gas emissions

• CO2 in the atmosphere
• Global temperature
• Total emissions
• Total removals to oceans, biomass etc.
• Sea level rise

Emissions from Developed Major Economies
And Developing Major Economies
One goal
And Non-Major Economies
CO2 in the atmosphere
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Simulator Helps Users Conduct Customized Tests
What If..?
(all graphs fossil fuel emissions)
Business as usual
All reduced 80 by 2050?
Or by 2030?
Developed
Developing
Non Major
Some by 2030 and others 2060?
Developed acts but undeveloped doesnt?
Starting in 2018?
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What Would Be the Effect on CO2 Concentrations in
the Atmosphere Over Time?
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What Would Total Emissions Looks Like, Divided by
Economy Group, since 1900?
(fossil fuel emissions)
NonME
Developing
Developed MEs
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How About for Specific Countries?
(fossil fuel emissions)
India
China
Japan
Russia
EU
US
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Or Cumulative Fossil Fuel Emissions?
India
China
Japan
Russia
EU
US
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Or Global Temperature?
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What If We Boost Removals With Sequestration
Through Aforestation?
C
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oceans
TonC/year
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seq.
ppm
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Goal
biomass
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Results with 80 reduction in fossil fuel
emissions plus 1.6 GTC/year in additional
sequestration by 2050
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Users Move Sliders to Select What If
Experiments Using the Prototype Control Panel
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Historical Fit Results
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Exploring Implications of Uncertainty in
Parameters Through Sensitivity Testing
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Overview of Model Structure
Specific country emissions
Developing major economies
Other GHGs
Specific country emissions
Total fossil fuel CO2 emissions
Developed major economies
Carbon cycle
Climate
Temp
GHGs in atm
Specific country emissions
Land use CO2 emissions
Non major economies
CO2 Sequestration
Changes to Aforestation Deforestation
Forests
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The Core of the Carbon Cycle Sector
(7 layers)
(7 layers)
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The Core of the Climate Sector
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We Use Metaphors to Help Explain Model
BehaviorThink of CO2 in the Atmosphere as a
Bathtub
The tub is filled by emissions and drained by net
removals into oceans and biomass. The inflow is
roughly double the outflow
Emissions
CO2 in the atmosphere
Net Removals
The flat path caps emissions above removals.
More is still flowing into the bathtub than is
flowing out. So the level of water in the
bathtub continues to rise.
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For Example 80 Reduction Brings Emissions Down
to Meet Removals
T
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E
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a
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Emissions
2
4

B
CO2 in the atmosphere
1
8

B
TonC/year
1
2

B
Emissions
6

B
Net Removals
0
Net Removals
2
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2
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4
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6
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So levels of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilize.
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Our Simulator Use Philosophy

• Runs fast for high-iteration model testing
• Model simulates 500 years in less than .1 second
• Allows for practical analysis in areas such as
  uncertainty, trade-offs, optimization, and
  robustness
• Hands-on use by policy-makers
• Simulators designed to be used easily on a laptop
  by non-modelers
• Transparency
• We share model equations
• No black box models
• Understanding causes of dynamics
• We take the time to ensure users understand why
  the model is doing what it is doing. We dont
  say, because the model says so.

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Simulator to Benefit From and Supplement Other
Models

• Pangaea uses data, structure and insights from
  other, larger, more disaggregated and detailed
  models
• EG, the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)
• Nations model generates internally consistent
  scenarios that could be tested and refined and
  verified in larger models
• Our purpose is to create a small model and make
  it useful to policy setting and learning about
  complex dynamics

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Sources of Structure and Data
Carbon Cycle and Temperature Bolin, B. 1986. Fiddaman. T.S. 1997. Nordhaus, W. D. 1992, 1994, 2000 Goudriaan, J. and P. Ketner. 1984. Oeschger, H., U. Siegenthaler, et al. 1975. Rotmans, J. 1990. Schwartz, S.E. 2007. Schneider, S.H., and S.L. Thompson. 1981. Socolow, R.H. And S.H. Lam. 2007. Wullschleger, S. D., W. M. Post, et al. 1995.
Sea Level Rise Rahmstorf, S. 2007.
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Sources of Historical Data
Historical FF CO2 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.http//cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/CSV-FILES/
Historical Population Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.Calculated by dividing FF emissions by FF emissions per capita
Historical GDP Department of Energys Energy Information Administration. http//www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1cco2.xls.
Historical CO2 atmospheric concentrations Mauna Loa National Oceanic Atmospheric Administrationhttp//www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ Siple Ice - Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. 1994. Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core http//cdiac.ESD.ORNL.GOV/trends/co2/siple.htm
Historical Temperature Changes HADCRUT3, Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. National Climatic Data Center, NCDC.
CFC Forcing Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). http//data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/ghgases/
Other Forcings GISS. http//data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/
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Sources of Projected Data
Projected FF CO2 emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and temperature BAU US MiniCAM EMF Standard Reference Europe AIM96 Standard Reference China MiniCAM EMF Standard Reference India MERGE 3.0 Ref World MiniCAM EMF14 Standard Reference World CETA EMF14 Standard Reference World AIM EMF14 Standard Reference World ASF SRES A1 Scenario Reduction World MiniCAM EMF14 Accelerated Technology World CETA EMF14 Accelerated Technology
Projected N2O and CH4 atmospheric concentrations IPCC Third Assessment Report. 2001. Chapter 6. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. P.358.
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We Have Calibrated Our Future Global Fossil Fuel
Emissions to Track MiniCAM Most Closely
Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
40 B
30 B
20 B
tonsC/year
10 B
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Time (year)
World CO2 FF emissions BAU
MiniCAM EMF14 Standard Reference
CETA EMF14 Standard Reference
AIM96 Standard Standard Reference
ASF SRES A1 Data
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We Have Calibrated Our Country-Level Fossil Fuel
Emissions to Track MiniCAM, AIM, and MERGE
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We Compared Our Models Business as Usual
Scenario for CO2 Concentrations to Other Models
IPCC CO2 Atm Conc Models vs Nations Model
1,000
750
500
ppm
250
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Time (year)
ppm CO2 in Atmosphere BAU
MiniCAM Stnd Ref
CETA EMF14 Stnd Ref
RICE EMF14
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We Compared Our Models Response to the MiniCAM
Business as Usual Fossil Fuel Emissions Scenario
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
Result when our carbon cycle is fed by MiniCAMs
emissions
800
400
ppm
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Time (year)
Our Model
MiniCAM
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We Compared Our Models Response to the MiniCAM
Accelerated Tech Reduction Fossil Fuel
Emissions Scenario
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
600
Result when our carbon cycle is fed by MiniCAMs
emissions
400
ppm
200
1990
2020
2050
2080
Time (year)
Our Model
MiniCAM
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We Plan to Post the Sim Online for Global Use
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More information

• Models on which the model that created these runs
  were based
• http//www.metasd.com/models/index.htmlClimate
• Interactive version covering some of these ideas
• http//www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_ch
  ange/challenge.htm
• http//www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/tools_resou
  rces/climatebathtubsim.html
• http//web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/GHG.html
• Video version
• http//video.google.com/videoplay?docid8235725143
  334110601prgoog-sl
• Other related simulations
• http//www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/climate_cha
  nge/simulations.html \
• Project blog
• http//climateinteractive.wordpress.com/
• For an interactive, online demonstration, contact
• apjones_at_sustainer.org