Family Size and Family Structure

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Family Size and Family Structure

• Appendix
• Trends in Births and Births Rates

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Todays Reading
Schiller Ch. 8 Family Size and Structure Daniel Patrick Moynihan, The Negro Family The Case for National Action, http//www.dol.gov/oasam/programs/history/webid-meynihan.htm DeParle, Ch. 9 The Radical Cuts the Rolls Milwaukee, 1995-1996
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Todays Questions

• Are poor families poor because they have too many
  members (babies)?
• Would they be non-poor if they had fewer members?
• Are poor families poor because they fail to
  maintain stable families? Would there be fewer
  poor families if
• There were fewer divorces
• More marriages among parents?

4
Are poor families poor because they have too many
members?

• What we know
• the risk of being in poverty rises with family
  size!
• Large, single parent families account for a
  disproportionate share of the long-term poor
• The temptation
• To conclude that large families would not be poor
  if they were smaller.

5
Are poor families poor because they have too many
members?, cont.

• Would they be non-poor if they had fewer babies?
  
• No! Research shows that most large families were
  in or near poverty prior to a change in family
  size. (p. 138)
• Behind the research findings
• How were the studies that investigated this
  question designed?
• What data bases were examined?
• Describe the nature of the data?

6
Not so fast my friend--

• large family size may not be linked to the
  beginning of poverty spells, but it may
• deepen and prolong poverty.
• further, growing up in a large, single parent
  family may contribute to multi-generational
  poverty.

7
Are poor families poor because they fail to
maintain stable families?

• What we know
• In the 1960s, most poor children lived in
  two-parent families.
• In 1999, 57 of poor children lived in families
  headed by single females.
• Poverty rates for children rose from 15.6
  percent in 1968 to 22.7 in 1993 and then fell to
  16.2 in 2000. The current rate (2008) is 19.0.

8
Are poor families poor because they fail to
maintain stable families?, cont.

• What we know
• Half the rise in child poverty over the 1980s is
  attributable to shifts in the child population
  from married-coupled families to female-headed
  families.
• (The work of Darity and Myers, and Wilson and
  Neckerman is important for our understanding for
  the increasing number of families headed by
  single females).
• Single-parent families of all races are at much
  greater risk of living in poverty.
• Why?

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Are poor families poor because they fail to
maintain stable families?, cont.

• The temptation
• To conclude that families would not be poor if
  parents were married.
• Is this true?
• Would there be fewer poor families if divorce
  rates fell?
• Would poverty rates be lower if fewer women had
  babies outside marriage?
• Would their be fewer poor families if single
  mothers married their childrens father?

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a. Would there be fewer poor families if divorce
rates fell?

• No. Divorce is not the primary culprit
• Duncan and Morgan (PSID longitudinal study)
• 20 of families experiencing divorce fell into
  poverty--not enough to explain trends
• Average income status loss was only 6
• Bane (PSID longitudinal study)
• Majority of poor white female-heads were not poor
  before divorce
• Only 1/3 of poor, divorced, black female-heads
  were not poor before divorce

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Reverse the direction of Causality (fewer
divorces if less poverty?)

• Average family income is positively correlated
  with family stability
• Schiller concludes that, the relationship
  between family status and poverty is best
  described as dynamic. Continued economic
  deprivation is likely to undermine a familys
  stability. . . Family breakup was only marginally
  responsible for existing poverty.

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b. Would poverty rates be lower if fewer women
had babies outside marriage?

• Danziger and Gottshalk (p. 147)
• If family composition had not changed since 1968,
  poverty rates would be
• I/3 less among blacks
• I/5 less among whites
• Lerman Smith
• the surge in female-headed families completely
  explains the increase in childhood poverty since
  1968. (p. 133)

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Would poverty rates be lower if fewer women had
babies outside marriage?, cont

• In contrast,
• Bane
• Births caused only 8 of poverty spells
• Sister studies
• (Geronimus and Korenman Hotz, Sanders, and
  McElroy)
• Teen mothers and their sisters and economically
  indistinguishable in the mid-twenties. (p. 137)

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Would poverty rates be lower if fewer women had
babies outside marriage?, cont

• Schiller concludes that . . . factors other than
  early childbirth are the primary cause of high
  poverty rates, among never-married mothers. (p.
  137)
• Think about the trios situation in Milwaukee.
  Does their experience challenge or support this
  line of argument?

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c. Would their be fewer poor families if single
mothers married their childrens fathers?

• To answer this question it would be useful to
  have a socioeconomic profile of the fathers. It
  might help to ask think about the benefits of
  marriage to Angie, Jewell, and Opal.
• What are the prospects of finding a marriageable
  man?

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Are government policies responsible in part for
the research findings?

• Do our policies encourage (reward) or discourage
  (punish)
• Large family size?
• Having children outside of marriage?
• Marriages between single parents?
• Do we support poor women who want to have
  children?

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The cost of raising children

• Suppose we wanted do to more to discourage poor
  women and men from having more children than they
  can afford?
• How would we determine how many children an adult
  could afford?
• How much money should an adult have in order to
  qualify for parenthood?
• See, Jencks and Edin, Do Poor Women have a Right
  to Bear Children? http//www.prospect.org/web/page
  .ww?sectionrootnameViewPrintarticleId5042

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The cost of raising children, cont.

• Alternative estimates
• Poverty Line
• Edin and Lein estimate
• USDA cost of having children
• Go to
• http//www.moneycentral.msn.com/articles/family/ki
  ds/tlkidscost.aspsingle, or http//www.extension.
  umn.edu/distribution/businessmanagement/DF5899.htm
  l and cost out Angies children!

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Appendix

• I will not have time to review the following
  slides in class. Nevertheless, I am including
  them so that you will familiarize yourself with
  the terms and trends that are often used in
  public debate regarding births and abortions.

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What is a birth rate?

• The number of births born per 1,000 women. Can
  be calculated for all women and for subgroups (j)
  defined by race, marital status, and occupation
  for example.
• BRNumber of birthsj/number of womenj
• where subscript j denotes the jth subgroup.

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Changes in birth rates

• Falling birth rates can be explained by declining
  numbers of births and/or increasing membership in
  the subgroup.
• Falling birth rates do not necessarily imply a
  decrease in the number of births.
• Rising birth rates can be explained by increasing
  numbers of births and/or decreasing membership in
  the group.
• Rising birth rates do not necessarily imply an
  increase in the number of births.

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What is a fertility rate?

• The total fertility rate is the number of births
  that 1,000 women would have in their lifetime if,
  at each year of age, they experience birth rates
  occurring in the specified year. A total
  fertility rate of 2,110 represents replacement
  level fertility for the total population under
  current mortality conditions (assuming not net
  immigration).

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Trends in Fertility rates, cont.

• Fertility rates for all women in the US have been
  rising (with slight vacillation) since 1980
• From 1,840 to 2,054 in 2005
• Fertility rates for white women have increased
  since 1980 (from 1,773 to 2,055 in 2004) while
  those for black women have fallen (2,177 to 2,033
  in 2004)
• Source Statistical Abstract of the United States
  (SAUS), Table 82 at http//www.census.gov/compend
  ia/statab/

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Trends in births

• The number of live births increased from
  3,612,000 in 1980 to 4,269,000 in 2006.
• The trend is increasing births for every racial
  category.
• (Source SAUS, Tables 77 and 79)

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Trends in birth rates

• Birth rates are rising for all women
• From 16.7 in 1990 to 14.0 in 2005 up to 14.2
• The upward trend is true of women in all racial
  categories.
• Birth rates are rising for women of all ages.
• (Source SAUS, Tables 78 and 79)

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Trends in Teen births

• The number of teen births has risen over the past
  two years reversing a 14-year decline
• From 533,000 (1990) to 421,000 (2005) up to
  442,000 (2006)
• The percentage of all births to teens is rising
• From 12.8 (1990) to 10.2 (2005)
• Teen births rates are falling for all age groups
  (15-17 and 18-19) and races
• From 59.9 (1990) to 40.4 (2005)
• (Source SAUS, Tables 79 and 85)

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Trends in births to Unmarried Women

• The total number of live births to unmarried
  women is rising
• From 1,165,000 (1990) to 1,525,000 (2005)
• By race
• The number of births to white unmarried women is
  up 670,000 (1990) to 983,000 (2004)
• The number of births to black unmarried women is
  down 455,000 (1990) to 424,000 (2004)
• (Source SAUS, Table 84)

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Trends in births to Unmarried Women, cont.

• By age
• The number of births to women less than 20 is
  rising reversing a 14-year trend 361,000 (1990)
  to 349,000 (2004) to 352,000 (2005)
• The number of births to unmarried women 20 years
  and older is rising 805,000 to 1,121,000.
• (Source SAUS, Table 84)

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Trends in births to Unmarried Women, cont.

• The percentage of births to unmarried mothers is
  rising
• From 26.6 (1990) to 36.8 (2005)
• (Source SAUS, Table 85)
• The percentage of all births outside of marriage
  born to white mothers is rising
• From 57.5 in 1990 to 66.9 in 2004
• The percentage of all births outside of marriage
  born to black mothers is falling
• From 39.1 in 1990 to 28.8 in 2004
• (Source SAUS, Table 84)

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Trends in births to Unmarried Women, cont.

• The percentage of white babies born outside of
  marriage is rising
• From 16.9 in 1990 to 30.5 in 2004
• The percentage of black babies born outside of
  marriage is rising much less dramatically
• From 66.7 in 1990 to 68.8 in 2004
• (Source SAUS, Table 85)

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Other relevant birth trends

• The percentage of low birth weight babies (less
  than 2,500 g. or 5 lb. 8 oz.) is rising slightly
• From 7.0 (1990) to 8.7 (2005)
• (Source SAUS, Table 85)
• The percent of mothers with prenatal care in the
  first trimester is rising
• From 74.2 in 1990 to 83.7 in 2002
• (Source SAUS, Table 82, p. 10)

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Birth rates by family income
Source SAUS, Table 88, p. 13
33
Birth rates by income, cont.

• Birth rates for women with family incomes less
  than 10,000 (95.8) are almost twice that for
  women in families with incomes of 75,000 and
  more (54.8).
• Births rates fall off sharply between two sets of
  income brackets
• Less than 10,000 to 10,000-19,999, and
• 20,000-24,999 to 25,000-29,999.
• (Source SAUS, Table 88, p. 13)

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Summary Births

• The number of live births is increasing.
• Birth rates are falling for all women.
• Birth rates are twice as high for low-income
  (lt10K) women that for high-income women (gt75).
• The number of teen births is falling.
• The percentage of all births to teen mothers is
  falling.

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Summary, cont.

• The total number of live births to all unmarried
  women is rising
• The number of births to black unmarried women is
  down
• The percentage of births to unmarried mothers is
  rising
• The percentage babies born outside of marriage is
  rising for whites and declining for blacks
• The percentage of low birth weight babies is
  rising slightly.

36
Abortions and abortion rates

• Half of all pregnancies to American women are
  unintended half of these end in abortion.?
• A broad cross section of U.S. women have
  abortions.
• 56 of women having abortions are in their 20s
• 61 have one or more children
• 67 have never married
• 57 are economically disadvantaged (living below
  200 of the poverty line)
• 88 live in a metropolitan area and
• 78 report a religious affiliation.

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Abortions and abortion rates, cont.

• Both the number of abortions and abortion rates
  (abortions per 1000) have declined steadily since
  1980
• The number of abortions fell from 1,554,000 in
  1980 to 1,287,000 in 2003
• The abortion rate fell from 29.3 in 1980 to 20.8
  in 2003
• Source SAUS, Table 96

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Abortions and abortion rates, cont.

• This decline was not shared equally among all
  groups
• abortion rates increased among economically
  disadvantaged women
• In 2001, 57 of women having abortions were
  economically disadvantaged (living below 200 of
  the poverty line).
• http//www.guttmacher.org/tables/3422602charts.pdf
  

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Women having an abortion are predominantly of
modest means
Source Jones RK, Darrock JE and Henshaw SK,
Patterns in the socioeconomic characteristics of
woman obtaining abortions in 2000-2001,
Perspectives on Social and Reproductive Health,
2002, 34(5)226-235.
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Abortions and abortion rates, cont.
Year All races Whites Black Others Black/White ratio
1980 Women (1000s) 53,048 44,942 8,106 --
Abortions (1000s) 1,554 1,094 460 --
Abortion rate 29.3 24.3 56.5 2.3
2003 Women (1000s) 61,911 48,782 13,129 --
Abortions (1000s) 1,287 715 572 --
Abortion rate 20.8 14.7 43.6 3.0
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Abortions and abortion rates, cont.

• The percentage of abortions accounted for by
  blacks and other women of color is climbing as
  the overall number of abortions falls
• From 30 in 1980 to 44.5 in 2001
• Women of color were 3.1 times more likely to
  abort a pregnancy in 2001 than were white women
• Women of color in two parent families were 1.38
  more more likely to live in poverty than whites
• Women of color in single parent families were
  1.98 percent more likely to live in poverty than
  whites
• Source SAUS, Table 93, p. 16

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Summary Abortions

• Half of all pregnancies to American women are
  unintended half of these end in abortion.?
• Overall, both the number of abortions and
  abortion rates (abortions per 1000) have declined
  steadily since 1980.
• abortion rates increased among economically
  disadvantaged women
• The percentage of abortions accounted for by
  blacks and other women of color is climbing as
  the overall number of abortions falls.

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Reverse the direction of Causality

• Does poverty lead to unintended pregnancies?
• The poorest women are increasingly likely to face
  unintended pregnancies
• Between 1994 and 2001, the rate of unintended
  pregnancy increased by 29 among U.S. women whose
  income was below the poverty line, while it
  decreased 20 among women with incomes at least
  twice the federal poverty level.
• Source L.B. Finer and S.K. Henshaw, Disparities
  in Rates of Unintended Pregnanacy in the United
  States, 1994 and 2001 http//www.guttmacher.org/m
  edia/nr/2006/05/04/index.html

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(No Transcript)
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Puzzle

• Is it poverty per se that leads to higher rates
  of illegitimacy, or some other factor that is
  related to both poverty and the likelihood of
  having a baby out of marriage?
• Think about the three women in American Dream in
  conjunction with this question.