Trend analysis of HMs and POPs on the basis of measurements and modelling data

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Trend analysis of HMs and POPs on the basis of
measurements and modelling data
Victor Shatalov and Oleg Travnikov, MSC-E
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Approach to the trend analysis
Decomposition of time series (modelling and
measurement results)
Measurements of BaP air concentrations at CZ3
Time series
Main trend parameter total reduction
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Monitoring data for trend analysis
Long-term data on POPs in air and precipitation
at EMEP sites (PCBs, HCB and PAHs)
Site (code)
Zeppelin (NO42)
Birkenes (NO02/99)
Pallas (FI36)
Storhofdi (IS91)
Aspvreten (SE12)
Råö/Rörvik (SE02/14)
Kosetice (CZ03)
Westerland (DE01)
Zingst (DE09)
No data on PCDD/Fs under EMEP
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Monitoring (CCC)
Air concentrations of PCBs declining trends at
almost all sites
Air concentrations of BaP no clear
time-trend at any station
BaP in precipitation small declining trends at
few sites
HCB, air decreasing trend at NO42 in 1990s and
increasing trend during the last decade
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Combined measurement/modelling trend analysis
(PCBs)
Comparison of observed and modelled air
concentrations at particular locations
Total reduction of PCB-153 calculated by trend
analysis of measurement and modelling data
Better agreement in second part of the period
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Long-term trends EMEP domain (BaP)
Modelling data
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Long-term trends countries (BaP)
Example Germany
Air concentrations (modelling)
Emissions (official data)
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Long-term trends countries (BaP)
Increase of emissions (2005-2012) Croatia 38 Ger
many 37 Spain 32 Finland 29 Portugal 28 Hu
ngary 25 Estonia 19 Bulgaria 18 Poland 14
Italy 11 Lithuania 10 Slovenia
6 United Kingdom 5
Countries with statistically significant increase
of BaP air concentrations from 2005 to 2012
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Long-term trends EMEP domain
Modelling data
Monitoring data
Total reduction of POP air concentrations in the
EMEP domain from 1990 to 2012
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Monitoring of heavy metals within EMEP
Long-term measurements of heavy metals (1990-2013)
Pb in precipitation
Pb in air
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Historical trends of heavy metal pollution
Joint analysis of measurements and modelling
(1990-2012)
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Trends Joint analysis at monitoring sites
Total reduction of heavy metal levels (1990-2012)
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Trends Changes in the whole EMEP domain
Long-term trends of Pb, Cd, Hg deposition
(1990-2012)
Total reduction ()
Pb Cd Hg
Monitoring sites 80 55-65 10-30
EMEP domain 78 53 23
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Trends Changes in individual countries
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Summary

• Pollution levels of Pb, Cd and Hg in the EMEP
  region reduced by 80, 55 and 25 during
  1990-2012
• Substantial decrease for the same period was
  estimated for PCBs and HCB (80-90), PCDDF (50),
  whereas for PAHs it was insignificant (below 30)
• Maximum reduction of HMs and POPs pollution took
  place in early 1990-s, in the second half of the
  period the reduction slowed or even changed to
  growth (PAHs and HCB)
• Decline of HM and POP levels in EECCA countries
  is generally smaller than that in EU
• Main factors controlling long-term changes of HM
  and POP pollution are anthropogenic and secondary
  emissions and intercontinental transport of
  long-living species (Hg, HCB, PCBs, PCDDFs)

Information on long-term trends of HMs and POPs
have been prepared for the CLRTAP Assessment 2016
and discussed at TFMM (Krakow, May 2015) and
Expert Group meeting (Moscow, August 2015)