Title: Computer and Society - 2 -
1Computer and Society- 2 -
2Impact of Computer and AIPresent and Future
- Ray Kurzweil, The Impact On ...,
- from the book The Intelligent Machines, 1990.
- We look at what Kurzweil predicted in 1990, what
have come to true, and what is coming to true,
what is not yet, and what may not be forever. - Our critiques and discussions.
3Organization of Slides
- In the order of topics in the article
employment, education, communication, warfare,
medicine, the handicapped, music, politics,
ourselves. - For each topic
- Authors ideas, marked with Kurzweil,
- My critiques, marked with Critiques,
- Our discussions, marked with Discussions.
4Topic 1. Employment and Economy
5Employment - revisit
Kurzweil
- Few areas generate as much controversy as
computers influence on employment. - This issue is rarely approached dispassionately.
- The reality of lost jobs is easier to see than
the possibility of new jobs created.
6IEA Study
Kurzweil
- IEA study A comprehensive study of the trends
of US economy at Institute for Economic Analysis
(IEA)
7What IEA Study Said (1)
Kurzweil
- Avg. earning power of workers was to increase
- A rapidly diminishing demand for clerical workers
and unskilled workers - A sharp increase in needs for professionals,
computer specialists, and teachers.
8What IEA Study Said (2)
Kurzweil
- The primary variable for continued growth was
education and training. - Power and wealth will increasingly consist of
knowledge and skill.
9IEA Study was Done in 1990
Critiques
- IEA study was a comprehensive study using a
detailed computer model of economy. - Quality of such study depends on model, factors
considered, and data. - I doubt some factors such as outsourcing, rise of
Chinese economy were taken into account.
10Factory Dwindling
Kurzweil
- Factories now employ substantially fewer workers
than before, due to automation and
computerization. - Computerized manufacturing enables more
customization of products. - Before 1st industrial revolution, products were
customized. With 1st industrial revolution,
products became standardized. Now, products
are coming back to customized.
11Who is to do What
Kurzweil
- In 21st century, computers and humans are going
to share the jobs in offices - For computers
- Type our letters and reports, maintain our files
and records, help organize our work. - For human
- Communication, teaching, learning, selling ,
strategic-decision making, and innovation.
12Change of Concept of Documents
Kurzweil
- Documents on paper are to diminish, which will be
replaced by multimedia documents. - Documents include linkages to underlying
knowledge and related information. - Documents are organized in a way that each part
can be directly accessed.
13Are Multimedia Books Better?
Critiques
- It looks to be a dream of the author that the
future documents are composed of text, pictures,
voice, music, ... (p.428) - Is a multimedia book inherently better than a
book of plain text? - Is a movie version of a novel, by it nature,
better than the novel itself?
14Learning as Part of Work
Kurzweil
- The primary skill required for future workers
will be ability to adapt. - A typical worker of this century will make a
major or a career change once or twice each
decade. - Learning as part of work, as some enlightened
companies have started doing.
15Knowledge and Learning Capability
Discussion
- To adapt to the dynamic technology
- Higher institutions should provide not only
knowledge but also tools of problem solving, and
ways of thinking. - Students in colleges should enrich their
knowledge as well as their ability of learning. - Meat or hunting rifle.
- Fish or fishnet.
16Are we really afraid of losing jobs?
Discussion
- We share a dread - losing jobs, or unemployed.
- We love working, dont we?
- No one has dreamed of working in the Heaven.
- We never worry about unemployment in Heaven,
since ... - we never expect to work in Heaven!
17Becoming Philosophers or Indulging in Making Love
Discussion
- The two quotes on page 425.
- If machines could be so improved and multiplied,
then all of our corporeal necessities could be
entirely gratified, without the intervention of
human labor, there will be nothing to hinder all
mankind from becoming philosophers and poets. - - Timothy Walker, 1831
-
- Machinery will perform all work automata will
direct all activities and the only tasks of the
human race will be to make love, study and be
happy. - - The United State Review, 1853
- Would we be more likely, by our nature, becoming
philosophers or indulging in making love if we
were truly worry-free?
18Topic 2. Education
19Education in Computer Revolution
Kurzweil
- Education plays a pivotal role in shaping the
future economy, as in Topic 1. - But we have seen fewer changes in schools than in
factories, in terms of content and process, in
this computing age.
20Eight Predictions in 1990 (1)
Kurzweil
- Computers are ubiquitous as pencils to students
- Students computers are portable laptops
- Very high resolution screen as readable as a
book - Of a variety of input devices
21Eight Predictions in 1990 (2)
Kurzweil
- Of high quality two-way voice communication and
natural language understanding - Very easy to use
- Interactive intelligent and entertaining
courseware - Wireless connection to network.
22Intelligent Courseware
Kurzweil
- It identifies the model that a student is using
or the students weakness - It develops strategy to upgrade the students
model - It provides entertaining and engaging experiences
to carry out the remedial strategy.
23Using Computer Network
Kurzweil
- Allow easy sharing of courseware, submissions by
students of papers and exams, e-mails, ... - Have access to libraries of the world, - books,
magazines, databases - Using intelligent software assistants to help
find information. (search engines as we call
them now)
24Envision Teaching after 2050
Kurzweil
- A homework might be to participate in the
Constitutional Convention of 1787 and debate the
founding fathers. - Another homework might be to negotiate the final
language on behalf of the executive branch to get
a better deal for the presidency on war powers. - Your submission would be the actual debates that
you participated in, and your teacher would grade
them on watching them.
25How Much Could Intelligent Machine Help
Education? (1)
Critiques
- Kurzweils vision of on-line, vivid, two-way
multimedia teaching in future is interesting, and
will help study. - Could it help in all subjects?
- In the subjects it helps, how much it might help?
26How Much Could Intelligent Machine Help
Education? (2)
Critiques
- Kursweils vision of future seems not quite
helpful in learning algebra, calculus,
quantitative decision making, ... - On subject of history, his vision seems helps
most. But do you think students knowledge of
history is now better with helps of TV, movie,
and computer, than that 100 years ago when learnt
purely from books?
27On-Line Course
Discussion
- In 1990, on-line course was not born yet.
- Advantages
- Disadvantages
- What courses might be most suitable to be taught
on-line?
28On-Line Course to Prevail?
Discussion
- Not all courses could be effectively taught
on-line. - More on-line classes will be seen.
- Whether a college to put a class on-line is based
on multiple considerations, other than most
effective teaching. - Whether a student to take a on-line class is
based on multiple considerations, other than most
effective learning.
29What Is a College Like in Future?
Discussion
- Who is teaching human professors or intelligent
machines? - Do students have to go to school?
- Are all courses on-line?
- Is a physical college necessary?
- If all courses were on-line and taught by
machines, then what would be difference between
colleges? - No more colleges and universities?
30Topic 3. Communication
31Functions of Communication
Kurzweil
- A mental need of a human is communication, which
grants its physiological and psychological
function. - The social function of communication is sharing
knowledge and carrying knowledge on.
32Computers and Network
Kurzweil
- Kurzweils expectation for 2010
- Computers and computer networks are gateways for
communication. (Internet) - Intelligent software to help access and search
information. (search engines) - Standardized software on each end of a
communication channel. (MS Explorer, Netscape,
HTML language)
33Where to find knowledge
Critiques
- Kurzweils expectation for 2010 in 1990 has
largely come true. - For where to find knowledge, we have search
engines like Yahoos!, Google, AltaVista. - More intelligent guider has appeared, - I know
what knowledge you want. Come with me.
34Paper as a Medium
Kurzweil
- Paper will still be a medium in communication of
man-man or man-machine. - Electronic documents has not caused reduction of
paper use. US has used 2,500 billion pages in
1986, while only 850 billion pages in 1981. That
is because ... - ... increase of productivity of producing paper
documents.
35Videophone
Kurzweil
- We have almost accomplished it.
- Need to improve
- Image quality
- Video, not only pictures
- Popularization.
36Robotic Person Imitator (RPI)
Kurzweil
- It is a robotic substitute of a human, with same
look and feel. - It acts and moves exactly the same way as the
real person thousands miles away. - So, meeting a person does not have to be a
personal meeting. It could be a
person-imitator or imitator-imitator meeting.
37RPI, Realistic?
Critiques
- It is can described as a lifelike sensor and
actuator being remotely controlled. - It is not an independent robot that acts on its
own will. - One person can technically have many imitators.
So, ... - Laws on murdering, raping, robbery, harassment,
privacy, ..., must be updated with RPI.
38Nature of Cities
Kurzweil
- What was initial purpose of a city?
- Facilitating manufacturing and transportation.
- What is purpose of a city after highways and
railways have made it unnecessary to live in the
manufacturing / transportation center? - Communication.
- When we can communicate and meet anyone without
leaving home, the need for a city diminishes.
39Humans Need City
Critiques
- Functions of a city that failed to mention by
Kurzweil - Social, entertainment, businesses, politics /
government. - Do humans by their nature tend to live close by
or alone? - Does a human feel comfortable staying home year
by year, talking to outside with phones and
e-mails, and sending his imitator to meet friends
and attend socials who are likely also imitators?
40Gratification of Information Will Level off
Critiques
- The feel of gratification for the amount of
available information will level off when the
amount of information available reaches certain
digestible point. - Similar rules occur on air, water, food, clothes,
... - The more information available, the better.
Is it true?
41Topic 4. Warfare
42Smart Weapon
Kurzweil
- A primary thrust of computing on warfare is smart
weapon. - Auto-piloting and pattern-recognition have
resulted in accurate destruction of targets
without damage to neighboring civilian population
and facilities.
43Defense Strategy with Smart Weapon
Kurzweil
- Smart weapon can be used tactically to won a war,
and strategically to deter the enemy. - First line of defense
- Conventional weapons with intelligence.
- Second line of defense
- Nuclear weapons.
44Combat in Future
Kurzweil
- Between smart flying weapons, missiles, robot
planes, and flying munitions, that can be
launched from virtually any place on earth or
from space as well as laser weapons and particle
beam weapons. - Cornerstones of combats
- Command, Control, Communication
45Geography Factor Fades Out
Kurzweil
- Geography is losing its strategic importance.
Slow moving vehicles as tanks and ships, and
battle stations, no matter land-, sea-, air-, or
space- based, will be vulnerable.
46War Is not a Video Game
Critiques
- Kurzweils vision of future war is like a video
game. - A war will be bloody and dirty, and never be as
clean as a video game. - death, misery, cruelty, brutality, barbarity will
be the reality. - In addition to smart weapons, there are WMDs
nuclear weapons, chemical and bio-chemical
weapons, ...
47Rule of Minimum Morality
Critiques
- In a game or conflict without rules and referees,
the rule of minimum morality prevails - The cleanness of the game is determined by the
dirtier side. - Prisoners dilemma -
48War in Future
Kurzweil
- If human reflexes and eventually human decision
making, at least on a tactical level, are
replaced with machine intelligence, then two
societies could let their machine fight out the
conflict in some remote place and let them know
who wins.
49Abolition of War, - By What?
Critiques
- It is not computing technology that will change
humans brute war to a video or sport game. - It is humans civilization, fraternity, equality,
and respect for value of life that will
eventually bury the war forever.
50Topic 5. Medicine
51Predictions for Early 21st Century (1)
Kurzweil
- Blood tests will be analyzed by cybernetic
technicians - Electrocardiograms will be analyzed entirely by
computer - Diagnosis will be reliant on all kinds of
non-invasive imaging, such as sonic and
particle-resonance
52Predictions for Early 21st Century (2)
Kurzweil
- National data bank of patients
- Expert systems will influence all diagnostic and
treatment decisions - Computers are widely used in new medicine design
and development - Heart disease and cancer are likely to be
conquered.
53Smart Drug
Kurzweil
- This drug will be actual living cells with a
measure of intelligence, which will be smart
enough - to identify an enemy pathogen and destroy or
pacify it - to self-destruct after completing the mission.
54What Doctors Do Then?
Kurzweil
- With machines playing crucial role in routine
medical activities, doctors will do - Research and organizing of medical knowledge to
enrich expert systems - Strategic medical decision making
- Reviewing diagnostic recommendations in
complicated cases.
55Doctors without Experience?
Critiques
- If doctors do not have practice and experience on
diagnosis and treatment, how could they come up
with new knowledge to enrich the expert systems? - Medicine is a subject that needs practice and
experience. Medicine is not pure math.
56Topic 6. The Handicapped
57How Will Computing Help the Handicapped
Kurzweil
- Reading machine for the blind,
- Navigational aids for the blind,
- Seeing machine for the blind,
- Speech-to-text aids for the deaf,
- Hearing machine for the deaf,
- Artificial limbs with intelligence for the
paraplegics and quadriplegics.
58Topic 7. Music
59How Will Computing Change Music
Kurzweil
- New instruments
- New sounds without direct acoustic and
instrumental counterpart. - Composing - sequencer to get the performance
effect and music notations at same time. - Live music performance
- Composition assistant software -
60Computing Makes Music Popular
Discussion
- Computer has made art and music appeal for both
the more and the less cultured. - Ordinary people can be artists and musicians.
- Art and music no longer belong to those people
with leisure.
61Computing Changes Entertainment
Discussion
- Music used to be played in churches, royal
palaces, and theatres of upper class. - Composers and music players were few elites in
society. - There were no concert with thousands of audience.
62Topic 8. Politics
63Cornerstones of Power
Kurzweil
- Used to be
- Land, Geography, Natural resources, Labor.
- They are shifting to
- Technology, Human intellectual resources.
64Tech Replaces Natural Resource for Cornerstone
of Power
Kurzweil
- The cornerstones of power during the 1st
industrial revolution Geography, natural
resources, and manual labor are rapidly
diminishing in importance and relevance. p.445 - We can only conclude that the strategic
variables controlling our future are becoming
technology and, in particular, the human
intellectual resources to advance technology.
p.446
65Scarce Natural Resources Will Remain Scarce
Critiques
- Although computer does not need scarce natural
resources, people in the computer age need them. - Oil, natural gas, iron/steel, food, ...
- The resources are more scarce since people are
getting richer due to computing technology, and
the richers need more.
66Land and Labor Still Matter
Critiques
- Labors will be needed as before, albeit the type
of labors is changing from blue collar workers to
white collar professionals. - Land, which carries scarce resources, needed
professionals, and infrastructures, will remain a
cornerstone of power.
67Technology Adds to Cornerstones
Critiques
- Technology just adds to the traditional
cornerstones of power, rather than replace them.
68Computing Would Imperil Controlled Society
Kurzweil
- Creativity and innovation cannot be forced.
- Unstoppable computer networks provide a platform
for free speech, promote free communication, and
encourage the open society. - Controlled societies are at stake.
69Computing May Help Totalitarian Government
Kurzweil
- Computers play today an indispensable role in
legitimate law enforcement. A dictator can use
it equally. - Computer technology can help build an efficient
and effective totalitarian control.
70Creativity Is Not Forced ? No Creativity in a
Forced Society
Critiques
- It is a fortunate truth of human nature that
creativity and innovation cannot be forced. - Be alert not to be misled by the above statement
that there is not creativity in a highly
controlled society. - Germany in WWII, Soviet Union, China
71How It Influences Society Depends on Who Controls
It
Critiques
- The last paragraph of this topic on
p.447 Computer technology may lead to a
flowering of individual expression, creativity,
and communication or to an era of efficient and
effective totalitarian control. It will all
depend on who controls the technology. A hopeful
note is that the nature of wealth and power in
the age of intelligent machines will encourage
the open society. Oppressive societies will find
it hard to provide the economic incentives needed
to pay for computers and their development. - It is true that it depends on who controls the
technology. - Oppressive government will have political
incentive for computer development at any cost!
72Computing Is Not Omnipotent
Critiques
- Although computing by its nature encourages an
open society, its effects on ending
totalitarianism should not be exaggerated. - Computing is just a tool.
- Computing is not an omnipotent drug to get
freedom and democracy prevailing. - The first quote on p.445 is arrogantly optimistic
about computing.
73Topic 9. Our Concept of Ourselves
74Intelligent Computers Are Beginning to Accomplish
Kurzweil
- Musical performances
- Teaching some skills and knowledge
- Diagnosing and remedial treatment
- Designing drugs
- Performing medical operations
- Locating underground resources
- Flying planes.
75More Difficult Tasks
Kurzweil
- Reading books
- Understanding the contents of a book
- Passing the Turing test.
76Most Difficult Tasks
Kurzweil
- Watch a moving scene and understand what is going
on - Imitating humans subtlety
- Pass the Turing test with face-to-face
communication.
77Human vs. Machine Intelligence
Kurzweil
Human Machine
Computing speed Slow Fast
Size of memory Large Larger
Reliability of memory Dubious Accurate and Reliable
Capability of thinking Good Poor
Improved in past 50 years? No Yes, dramatically
Will improve in next 50 years? Not likely. Very likely and dramatically
78Are We Unique?
Kurzweil
- We may not be the smartest species in the
universe forever, simply because we can create a
species that is smarter than us. - Maybe we will fail and go back to appreciate the
inherent value of being unique human.