Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster

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Public Choice TheoryDr. D. Foster
Case Study 1986 Congressional RaceState of
Hawaii District 1
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Mid-summer 1986

• Cec Heftel wants to run for Governor !
• He is currently the US Rep. for District 1.

• One problem He must resign to run !

So, he resigns
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Mid-summer 1986
PrimarySeptember
GeneralNovember
Elections
Three Needs

• Need 1 Fill vacancy through Jan. 1987.
• Need 2 Select nominees for general election.
• Need 3 Elect Congressman in November.

Solution Combine 1 2 in September.
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Mid-summer 1986
PrimarySeptember
GeneralNovember

• The Players

Elections
Pat Saiki (R)
Mufi Hanneman (D)
Neil Abercrombie (D)
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Mid-summer 1986
PrimarySeptember
GeneralNovember
Elections

• The Rules
• Anyone can vote in the primary.

The Twist Saiki has no discernable competition.
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Mid-summer 1986
PrimarySeptember
GeneralNovember
Elections

• A graphical look at public support

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Mid-summer 1986
PrimarySeptember
GeneralNovember
Elections

• September Results
• Pat Saiki wins Republican primary.
• Mufi Hanneman wins Democratic primary

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Mid-summer 1986
PrimarySeptember
GeneralNovember
Elections

• November Results

• Pat Saiki wins election !!!

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What happened ?

• Republicans voted for Mufi in primary - the
  weaker candidate, and he wins!!!
• Republicans Democrats have an incentive to vote
  for their favorite in the special election Neil
  wins!!!
• Abercrombie supporters voted for Saiki in general
  election - retribution against Mufis campaign.

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Debrief

• Saiki won a second term (1988-1990).
• Saiki ran for senate in 1990 - lost -- was
  selected to run SBA by Bush I.
• Abercromie ran again, and won, in 1990. --
  served until 2010.
• Hanneman lost 1990 race for District 2. --
  later served on Honolulu City Council.
• Cec Heftel lost bid for governorship.

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Debrief II

• Abercromie wanted to be governor in 2010. --
  resigned from District 1 seat in 2010!
• Hanneman becomes Honolulu mayor in 2004. --
  re-elected in 2008. -- wants to be governor in
  2010!
• Abercromie wins primary and general elections.
• Djou becomes interim Rep. for District 1. --
  loses general election.

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Public Choice TheoryDr. D. Foster
Case Study 1986 Congressional RaceState of
Hawaii District 1