What Predicts Participation in the Kyoto Protocol?

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What Predicts Participation in the Kyoto Protocol?

• Group III
• Josiah Seale
• Sandy Pae
• Taylor Strickling

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Logic

• Original question
• why didnt the US ratify Kyoto?
• changed to explaining why nations in general
  ratified or didnt ratify
• Country-level analysis
• Basic dependent variable scale of how involved
  a country has been w/ Kyoto
• Independent variables various regional and
  economic variables

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Dependent variableRelationship to Kyoto
Acceeded to Kyoto 1416 points
Ratified Kyoto 1113 points
Signed Kyoto 35 points
Nothing to do w/ Kyoto 0 points
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Basic relationships(Note should have come
before the table)
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Bivariate regression results
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Comment I Dependent var.

• Further recoding?
• 3-point scale?
• 2-point scale?
• sqrt(y)

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Comment II Non-linearities
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Bivariate comparisons
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Comparison of bivariate regressions
Original coding Original coding Original coding Logged transformation Logged transformation Logged transformation
Coeff. t r2 Coeff. t r2
Population -1.88e-06 -0.59 .0019 -0.32 -1.77 .017
Military ( of GDP) -0.31 -3.15 .059 -2.12 -4.26 .11
Democracy (10-pt. scale) -0.46 3.74 .071 1.70 3.33 .057
Agriculture ( GDP) -0.027 -1.89 .022 -0.39 -1.09 .008
GDP -3.70e-08 -0.06 .00 -0.078 -0.47 .0012
GDP/capita 0.000025 0.60 .002 0.37 1.59 .014
Island (0-2 scale) 1.82 3.40 .059 3.17 3.36 .057
CO2/capita -0.00301 -0.12 .0001 0.39 1.85 .019
Note sign shift
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Regression horse race (logged values of ind.
vars)
Original 16 point scale 2 point scale 3-point scale sqrt scale logit
Population (millions) -0.51 (3.28) -0.38 (5.56) -0.42 (0.50) -0.18 (0.83) -0.57 (1.52) -2.12 (2.93)
Military ( GDP) -0.27 (0.13) -2.09 (0.65) -0.18 (0.06) -0.32 (0.10) -0.60 (0.18) -1.05 (0.37)
Democracy (1-10) 0.23 (0.18) 0.13 (0.19) 0.034 (0.017) 0.034 (0.029) 0.069 (0.053) 0.18 (0.10)
Agriculture ( GDP) -0.029 (0.022) -0.043 (0.032) -0.0011 (0.0029) -0.0052 (0.0048) -0.0087 (0.0089) -0.0074 (0.0167)
GDP (millions) 0.088 (0.601) 0.39 (5.59) 0.47 (0.50) 0.20 (0.84) 0.63 (1.53) 2.40 (2.94)
GDP/capita (10k) -0.72 (0.74) -0.92 (5.50) -0.43 (0.49) -0.26 (0.82) -0.66 (1.51) -2.10 (2.88)
Island (0-2) 0.45 (0.82) 0.65 (0.89) 0.10 (0.08) 0.13 (0.13) 0.25 (0.24) 0.66 0.50
CO2/capita -0.29 (0.42) -0.074 (0.48) 0.028 (0.042) 0.024 (0.071) 0.024 (0.130) 0.11 (0.26)
Intercept 5.45 (1.90) 13.00 (38.06) 3.125 (3.40) 2.62 (5.69) 5.91 (10.41) 12.32 (19.85)
N 128 127 127 127 127 127
R2 .11 .16 .34 .20 .24 .25
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Back to the question about the USA

• USA coded a 3 (only signed KP)
• Prediction from regression w/ 16-point scale
  3.65

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Accounting for the USA prediction
Variable Coeff. USA value Coeff. USA value
Intercept 4.68 1 4.68
Log(pop) -0.38 -1.28 0.49
Log(military) -2.09 1.16 -2.42
Democracy 0.13 10 1.30
Agriculture -0.043 3 -0.13
Log(GDP) 0.39 2.06 0.80
Log(GDP/capita) -0.92 1.06 -0.98
Island 0.65 0 0
Log(CO2/capita) -0.074 1.65 -0.12
Sum 3.65
Doesnt exactly equal sum because of rounding
error