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97?? ??????????????????????
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3
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1. ?????????????,???????????????????????????????????
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2. ?????96?????????????????95??????????????????????,?
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3. ?(97)?6?????3095???????????????,??????????????????
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4
?? ??????????
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5
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6
???????????????(??)??????
7
??????????

• (?)????????
• ????????,?????????????????????????????,??????????
  ?????,??????????????????
• ???2009????????????,????????????????????????2012??
  ????????
• ??????????????,????????????????
• (?)???????
• ??????????,?????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????,???????

8
??????????(?)

• (?)?????????????
• ??IEA(2007)??,???2030???????????????,??76.981.2
  ?
• ??????????????????,????????41?????61???147?,??????
  ???????
• ??????????????,???????,???????????????????????????
  ???????

9
??????????(?)
(?)????????????? 1.???????????,??????????????????
???????????,????????,???????????? 2.???????????,??
????????????????????????
10
????????
(?)?????????????? (?)??????,99.2
????? (?)??????,?????91.6 ,????51.1 ?
0.1 0.1 8.0 0.3 8.1 0.3 51.1 32.1

0.1 0.0 15.3 1.0 3.7 1.3 52.9 25.9
0.1 0.0 10.1 0.2 6.8 0.8 48.8 32.3
0.1 0.1 11.9 0.6 5.2 1.0 51.1 30.0
??????? 97.2 98.2
98.8
99.2
11
??????????
(?)???????????3?????
?????????????,?2016??2020????2008????,?2025???2000
?????????????????41,???2025??50??
??
???8??????????2??,???????2015???20?????????????
????,2025???50??
Cool ?? !
?????????4?????6?2015????????3???????????????????
?
12
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13
???????????????(??)????

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14
(?)????????
??????
96???????
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????????
????? 94?????? ???
?????? (6/15?7/24)
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NGO????(8/16)
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????? ???(??)????
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85?????????????????94?????????????95??????????????
??????????
15
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16
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17
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18
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??????4?????6?2015????????3??????????????????
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??8?????????2??,???????2015??2005???20?????????
?????,2025???50???
1. ??????????,?2016??2020????2008????,?2025???2000
????? 2. ????????????40???2025??55???
????
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19
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3. ????????

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2. ????????
3. ????????
4. ??????????
5. ????????

20
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???????
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21
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• ?????2025???????1.31??????,???????(?)???????,?????
  ???,?2025??????17.7??????28.3,????????23.9?

2000?
?????
?????
1.07??????
2025?
1.31??????
22
(?)??????

• ????????????,??????????????,????????4? ?
• ?????2025??????6,932?? ,??(?)???????,??????????,??
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  ??????23.8 ?

2005?
3,477??
?????
2025?
?????
6,932??
23
(?)?????

• ????????????,???????????????,????????4? ?
• ?????2025???????3,725???,???(?)???????,??????????,
  ??????????(????)??????????????????37.6,??????????
  ?20.8,???????????5.2 ?

2000?
1,849???
?????
?????
2025?
3,725???
24
??????????
(?)???
???? ?????? ???????
???????? ?????????????? ??????,??????????,????????????????? ?????????????? ??????,??????????,?????????????????
???????? ????????????? ?????????????
???????? ????????????40???2025??55???(????????? )
???????? ???????????????,?? 2010 ????????? 513 ??, 2020 ??? 700800 ??, 2025 ??? 800900 ??,????????????? 12 ???? ???????????????,????????????,?2025???????8??? (????????? )
???????? ????(???)) ??,????????? 2020 ??? 1,600 ???, 2025 ??? 2,000 ???? ????(???)???????,?2025???????25??? (????????? )
???????? ????????????? ????????(?????) ??????20?(?????) ??????20??????(?????)
????????
25
??????????(?)
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???? ?????? ???????
???????? ??????????? ????????????42.3? ????????? ???????????? ??????????(????????? ) ?????????????(????????? ) ??????????????????????(????????? )
?????????? ?????????????,??????????,????????????????????????????????? ????????,???????????????,??????????? (????????? )
?????????? ?????????????,??????????,????????????????????????????????? ????????4 ?????50 ?????100 ??,?????????(????????? )
???? ???? ?????????,????????????,??????????? ?????????,????????????,???????????
26
??????????(?)
(?)???
???? ?????? ???????
??????????? ??????????????????,????????,???2025??2005?????2227? ??8?????????2??,???????2015??2005???20??????????????,2025???50???(????????? )
??????????? ???? ??????????????????????????? ,???????? ??????????,??????????????????,???????????????????????? ?????????????????????,????????????2025???30??? (????????? ) ?????????,??????? (????????? ) ??????????????,????????? (????????? ) ????????????????????,?????????(????????? )
??????????? ???? ???????????????????? ??????,???????????,????????????,?2011???1070???????,????2090???????(????????? )
27
??????????(?)
(?)???(?)
???? ?????? ???????
??????????? ???? ????????????(?)???????????????????,??????????????? ????????????????????????????(?)???????????????????,???????????????(????????? )
??????????? ??????????? CO 2 ????? ???????????????????????,??2015?????7????(????????? ) ???????????(Carbon Neutral)???,?????????????????(????????? )
??????????? ???????????(????????? ) ?????????????????????(????????? )
28
??????????(?)
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??????????? ??????????,??????????????? ??????????? (????????? ) ????????,??????????? (????????? )
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29
??????????????
30
??????????
?????????

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• ??????????????????
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• ???????

????
??????
?????? 1.?????? 2.?????? 3.??????? 4.????
LCA(???????)
??????
???????
?????????
??????????
?????????????
31
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(?)??????,???????????????????????? (?)?????? 1.
??????????????????????????????????? 2.
???????????????, ??????????????????? 3.
????????????,??????????,?????????????????????
32
??LCA??????
???????????(Gate to gate)??,?????????????,????????
?CO2 ?
33
????????

• (?)???????????
• ???????????????????,??????????????????,???????????
  ????
• 1. ??????
• IPCC AR4 WGIII (2007)??????????????7???,?????????
  ???????????????(1)????????????????????????(2)?????
  (3)????(safety)?(4)??????(5)?????(6)???????.
• WWF?????(2007)???,??25?????????,???????,?????,????
  ????????????????????,?????????????????,???????????
  ??????????
• 2.????????
• ????????????(2008)??,? BLUE Map
  ???,?2050?,?????46????????????2050?,???32Giga-
  Watt???????,???????????6????????(IEA,2008)

34
3. ????

• (1)??????????????,??????????????,????????????????
  ????(NEA,2008)
• (2)????????????????,????, ?????????,
  ?????????,??????????,???????????
  

(3)??????? ??PSI?????????????? (Energy-related
Severe Accident Database ENSAD)????????????????
????????????,??????????,?GWeYr???10000????1E-7??GW
eYr???100?????????1E-5???????????????1E-4,??????1E
-31E-4???
35

• (4)????
• ???????????? ??4.72E-5?????2.18E-5??? 3.01E-5?
  ??? 3.45E-6
• ????????? ??? (????????????)
• ????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????
  ?? ,
• ?2007????0.33(?/???
  ???)

??????????????
??????????????
36
4. ??????

• (1)????????????????????,??????????????????
• (2)???????Information System on Occupational
  Exposure??????,20042006???,???????????,?????????
  PWR 0.75 BWR 1.41(manSv) (NEA,2006)
• (3)????????2005?????15??????????,????????????100m
  Sv?,?????????9.7?
• (4)????????????????,?????5???,??????????????????(
  Spix et al,2008)
• (5)????????NRC?????,???????20??,???????????14,800
  ???,?12??????(cancer fatalities)?

37

• (5)?????????
• ???? 20042006??,?????????????????-
• ??0.971.47 manSv ISOE
• ??1.342.3 manSv gt ISOE
• ??0.771.09 manSv gt ISOE
• ???????????????,???????2???

38
5.??????

• (1)?????????????????????,?????????????(undue
  burdens)?
• (2)?????? IPCC?????????????????????????,????????(
  ????????),????????????????????????,???????????????
  ?,?????????????????????
• (3)???????????????????????????13,906?,?????2,842?
  ?
• (4)???????????????????
• ??98?????????????????????????
• ??106??????????????
• ??117???????????
• ??126????????????
• ??132?????????
• ??144?????????????

39

• (5)????????
• ????2006???????????????????????,??????1997??2005??
  ????????????,??????85?2009????????,???????2006?20
  08?????????????
• ????,2005???????????????????601?,96?????259??
• ???????,??????,?????????????????????,2025??,??????
  ????2,300?,?2005??????
• (6)????????
• ??????40??,????50??,????45??,??????????????????60?
  ????2025??,???????????2,535??
• ????????????????????2015????,????2025?????????,???
  ??????????,???????,???????????????

40
6.??????????

• (1)??????2006????????????????????????????????,?61
  ??????????????,30??????????????,??????

• ????????????,??????
• ?????????????????,???????

?
?
41

• (2)????
• 2000??????????,?????,????????????????????????????
  ????????,? 67.2?11.7????????????????????????????
  ,? 58.7?13.4?(????,2000 )
  (???????1495?)
• 2005??,????????,??????????????????,???????????,?4
  2.7,???????7.3???35.3?????????????,????????????
  (???????????,2005)(???????685?)

?
?
42

• (?)??????????
• ????(??????)??????????????????????,??????????????
  ????????New Energy Externalities Developments for
  Sustainability??NEA?Risks and Benefits of Nuclear
  Energy??,???PSI???????????????,?????????,?????????
  ?(Fatalities)
• ??????(?????????????)????????,???????????,???????
  ?????????????,????????????????????????????,???????
  ?????????????? ??????,??????????,???????????????
• ??????????,????????????????????????????,?????????
  ????????

43
????????????????

• ??????????????,??????????????,????????????????????
  ??
• ????????2005?9.8???NOx??,?????????2025???9???NOx??
  ,????10?
• ???????2005?3.3???PM2.5??,?????????2025???2.7???PM
  2.5??,????16?

???? ???? ???? ???? ?? ???
???? ???? ????? (???NOx??) ???? (???PM2.5??) ??? (???PO4??) ????? (???)
2005 ??? 9.8 3.3 4.9 1860
2015 ????? (???) (???) (???) (???)
2015 ????? (???) (???) (???) (???)
2015 ????? 10.1 (1.2) 3.2 (0.99) 3.5 (0.72) 1460 (0.78)
2025 ????? (???) (???) (???) (???)
2025 ????? (???) (???) (???) (???)
2025 ????? 9.0 (0.9) 2.7 (0.84) 3.7 (0.77) 1312(0.71)
????????????????2005????????
44
????????????????(?)

• ??????????????,?????????????????????????,?????????
  ?????????????
• ???2005?23.2???SO2??,?????????2025???19.8???SO2??,
  ????15?

???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ????
???? ???? ??????????( ??24Dsoil) ??????????(??24Dwater) ?? (??eq SO2) ??(??eq Bezeneair ) ???????(???CO2??)
2005 ???? 10.4 0.27 23.2 2.2 257
2015 ????? (???) (???) (???) (???) (???)
2015 ????? (???) (???) (???) (???) (???)
2015 ????? 9.4(0.9) 0.41 (1.5) 21.6(0.93) 1.9(0.87) 262 (1.3)
2025 ????? (???) (???) (???) (???) (???)
2025 ????? (???) (???) (???) (???) (???)
2025 ????? 9.3 (0.89) 0.43 (1.6) 19.8 (0.85) 1.7(0.76) 214 (1.0)
????????????????2005????????
45
????????????
46
??????????

• (?)???????????????????,??????????????
• (?)???????(FAHP)????????????????
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47
??96???????????
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?? ??
????
????
48
??97?????????
?????? ?????????
???? ???????????(Policy)?????(Plan)????,??????????,?????????? ???????????(Policy)?????(Plan)????,??????????,??????????
??? ???????????????????? ?????????
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49
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??????? (2)?????? ????????????????????,????????
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50
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51
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