Population,%20Resources,%20Environment

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Population, Resources, Environment
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Population boom

• falling death rates and longer lives from better
  nutrition, sanitary conditions, and healthcare

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Demographic Transition

• After initial population explosion, birth rates
  drop in more urban affluent societies

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Population momentum

• fast growing societies continue to grow, since
  many enter reproductive years

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Population policy

• development population control
• family planning programs
• US retreating under Bushabstinence only
• female literacy/education
• Chinas experiment
• 1979 one-child policy
• 250 million fewer births
• a success?

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Problems of population slowing

• growth of dependent portion of population
• will be especially acute in developing world
• It took 50 ys for US average age to increase 5
  ysMexicos will go up 20.

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Problems of population growth

• polluting and exhausting resources
• Example Rwanda
• is the problem population, or unsustainable
  practices?
• example--eating higher on the food chain

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water

• US water used for glass of milk, burger, small
  steak?
• 200 gallons
• 800 gallons
• 1300 gallons
• depleting aquifers, falling production

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Soil degradation and desertification

• New Lands--Aral Sea
• Local life expectancy from 65 to 51
• Highest rate of cancer of esophagus in world
• http//www.films.com/id/12468/Killing_the_Aral_Sea
  _Catastrophe_by_Design.htm

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Rainforest destruction

• From logging, slash and burn, fuel wood, cash
  crops, and ranching
• http//www.voanews.com/english/2006-06-09-voa48.cf
  m

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Soil erosion

• 99 of worlds food from soil, but losing soil25
  m. acres per year
• from slash and burn and unsustainable farming,
  logging, and grazing
• Lost to water, wind

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Some Solutions

• Technology
• Green Revolution?
• Problems needs expensive inputs, and more water
• GM?

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A special case the sea

• problems of stewardship of a collective good
• the failure of international agreements to
  protect fisheries
• 1995 wild fish harvest peaked, despite more
  intensive fishing
• Aquaculture fastest growing animal husbandry

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oil

• Hubberts peak oil
• Collapse of petro-civilization?
• Julian Simon and the Cornucopians

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Pollution

• The development-pollution or Kuznets curve

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A possible exception

• global warming or greenhouse effect

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What is the Greenhouse effect?

• CO2 and other gasses trap suns rays

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Consequences

• raising sea levels, causing droughts and storms,
  and disrupting ecosystems, crop productivity,
  ocean acidification
• self-sustaining processes
• melting polar ice-caps cool less and reflect less
  light/heat
• thawing permafrost releases more g.h. gasses

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water shortage
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Kyoto

• 1997 Kyoto Protocols, formally in effect since
  2004
• U.S. and other developed countries were to reduce
  g.h. gasses below 1990 levels by 2012
• 1997-01 Senate fails to ratify the treaty
• 2001 Bush dismisses Kyoto Protocols
• cites insufficient evidence, too great costs
• Developing countries, like China and India
  exempted

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Per capita carbon emissions
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What can be done?

• Gas tax
• cleaner and alternative forms of energy
• Californias Pavley Law, and beyond
• Northeast states cap and trade
• Ethanoland Brazils cellulosic ethanol
• nuclear?
• carbon sequestration

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Jared Diamond on Cultures that Collapse

• Easter Island and Mayadeforestation leading to
  soil erosion