Climate Change and Impact on Water Resource Planning

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Climate Change and Impact on Water Resource
Planning

• Eugene S. Takle
• Certified Consulting Meteorologist
• Director, Climate Science Initiative
• Professor of Atmospheric Science
• Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
• Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
• Department of Agronomy
• Iowa State University
• Ames, Iowa 50011
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu

ASCE Environmental Water Resources
Conference Ames, Iowa 25 March 2010
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Outline

• Iowa precipitation trends of the 20th Century
• Scientific basis for future climate change
• Projected future global and regional changes in
  climate
• Impacts of climate change on water resources
  management

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Observed Trends in Iowa Precipitation
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State-Wide Average Data
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State-Wide Average Data
37.5
31.5
19 increase
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State-Wide Average Data
Totals above 40
8 years
2 years
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State-Wide Average Data
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(No Transcript)
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Cedar Rapids Data
28.0
37.0
32 increase
10
Cedar Rapids Data
51 increase
11.8
7.8
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Cedar Rapids Data
34 increase
20.2
26.8
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One of the clearest trends in the United States
observational record is an increasing frequency
and intensity of heavy precipitation events Over
the last century there was a 50 increase in the
frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6
mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.
this trend is statistically significant
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson,
(eds.), 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in
the United States. Cambridge University Press,
2009, 196pp.
13
Cedar Rapids Data
57 increase
6.6 days
4.2 days
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Cedar Rapids Data
Years having more than 8 days
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2
57 increase
6.6 days
4.2 days
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State-Wide Average Data
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D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
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Iowa Agricultural Producers Adaptations to
Climate Change

• Longer growing season plant earlier, plant
  longer season hybrids, harvest later
• Wetter springs larger machinery enables
  planting in smaller weather windows
• More summer precipitation higher planting
  densities for higher yields
• Wetter springs and summers more subsurface
  drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing,
  sloped surfaces
• Higher humidity more spraying for pathogens
  favored by moist conditions, more problems with
  fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster
  harvest due to shorter harvest period during the
  daytime.

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Great Flood of 1993 in the US Midwest A New
Great Lake
Historical Data indicate this should happen about
once every 500 years
Lakshmi, V., and K. Schaaf, 2001 Analysis of
the 1993 Midwestern flood using satellite and
ground data. IEEE Trans. Geosci Remote Sens.,
39, 1736-1743.
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(No Transcript)
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Projected Future Trends in Iowa Precipitation
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The future isnt what it used to be Yogi Berra
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NASA
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
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Global Mean Surface Temperature
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008
/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson,
(eds.), 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in
the United States. Cambridge University Press,
2009.
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(No Transcript)
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Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)
Actual emissions are exceeding worst case
scenarios projected in 1990
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Energy intensive
Balanced fuel sources
More environmentally friendly
If current emission trends continue, global
temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios
projected in 2007
Consider A1B
FI fossil intensive
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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IPCC 2007
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December-January-February Temperature Change
7.2oF
6.3oF
A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980-1999
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IPCC 2007
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June-July-August Temperature Change
4.5oF
A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980-1999
5.4oF
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June-July-August Temperature Change
4.5oF
A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980-1999
5.4oF
Not the direction of current trends
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IPCC 2007
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Low confidence in model projection of summer
precipitation
IPCC 2007
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IPCC 2007
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Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson,
(eds.), 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in
the United States. Cambridge University Press,
2009, 196pp.
38
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson,
(eds.), 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in
the United States. Cambridge University Press,
2009, 196pp.
39
Low confidence
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson,
(eds.), 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in
the United States. Cambridge University Press,
2009, 196pp.
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Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy
precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with
increasing GHG concentrations. Frequency of
intense precipitation events is likely to
increase in the future.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson,
(eds.), 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in
the United States. Cambridge University Press,
2009, 196pp.
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The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Adaptation Necessary
Adaptation Necessary
Mitigation Possible
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson,
(eds.), 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in
the United States. Cambridge University Press,
2009, 196pp.
42
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Adaptation Necessary
Adaptation Necessary
Mitigation Possible
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson,
(eds.), 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in
the United States. Cambridge University Press,
2009, 196pp.
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Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in
Current and Future Climates
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Projected Changes for the Climate of the
Midwest Temperature

• Longer frost-free period (high)
• Higher average winter temperatures (high)
• Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
• Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in
  short term but more in long term (medium)
• Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and
  winter (high)
• More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
• Increased temperature variability (high)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but model suggestion or
current trend but model inconclusive
Estimated from IPCC reports
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Projected Changes for the Climate of the
Midwest Precipitation

• More (10) precipitation annually (medium)
• Change in seasonality Most of the increase
  will come in the first half of the year (wetter
  springs, drier summers) (high)
• More water-logging of soils (medium)
• More variability of summer precipitation (high)
• More intense rain events and hence more runoff
  (high)
• Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
• Longer periods without rain (medium)
• Higher absolute humidity (high)
• Stronger storm systems (medium)
• More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)
• Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term
  but decreases in the
  long run (medium)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but model suggestion or
current trend but model inconclusive
Estimated from IPCC reports
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Use of Regional Climate Modeling for Design and
Decision-MakingNorth American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
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Global models lack regional detail
North America coastlines and terrain at typical
global climate model resolution used for the IPCC
3rd and 4th Assessment Reports. Hadley Centre
AOGCM (HadCM3), 2.5 (lat) x 3.75 (lon), 280 km
North America at 50 km grid spacing
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Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
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ISU Climate Science Initiative is now running
four models
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
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Iowa State University Climate Science Initiative

• ISU/CSI is the only organization in the world
  running four different regional climate models
  for science, impacts and adaptation
• Climate change impacts and adaptation
• Streamflow in the UMRB
• Subsurface tile drainage flow
• Pavement performance
• Building design standards
• Soil carbon
• Crop growth

http//climate.agron.iastate.edu/ or Google ISU
CSI
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Iowa Environmental Mesonet

• Collects over 400,000 observations per day
• Serves out data to thousands of users each day
• Receives over 10,000,000 web hits per day

http//mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/
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Summary

• There is no scientifically defensible explanation
  for atmospheric warming, increase in ocean heat
  content, and loss of ocean and land ice over the
  last 40 years other than increase of
  anthropogenic greenhouse gases
• Climate challenges to water resource management
  are most evident in extreme events
• Changes of extremes are more evident than changes
  in means
• Global and regional climate models have much to
  offer for understanding future Midwest water
  resource management adaptation strategies
• The Iowa Environmental Mesonet provides a wealth
  of environmental data relative to water resource
  management

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For More Information

• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program http//www.narccap.ucar.edu/
• For current activities on the ISU campus,
  regionally and nationally relating to climate
  change see the Climate Science Initiative
  website http//climate.agron.iastate.edu/
• Contact me directly gstakle_at_iastate.edu
• Contact Chris Anderson, Assistant Director of the
  Climate Science Initiative, cjames_at_iastate.edu