UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC

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UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC

• H. J. BOSHOFF
• AND
• R. CORNWELL

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SCOPE

• BACKGROUND
• AFTER SUN CITY
• PRETORIA DEAL
• CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION
• INCIDENTS
• MONUC PHASE 3 AND PRETORIA DEAL
• CONCLUSION

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BACKGROUND

• 10 JULY 1999 SIX STATES SIGNED THE LUSAKA
  AGREEMENT
• THREE YEARS LATER AND THE PARTIAL FAILURE OF THE
  ICD(SUN CITY) DID NOT END THE FIGHTING IN THE
  KIVUS
• MONUC NOT ABLE TO IMPLEMENT DDRRR
• PRETORIA DEAL BRINGS NEW HOPE OF PEACE

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AFTER SUN CITY

• AFTER SEVEN WEEKS OF NEGOTIATIONS AT SUN CITY A
  PARTIAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN KABILA AND BEMBA
• END OF THE ICD WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF LUSAKA
  AGREEMENT
• RCD-G AND RWANDA LEFT IN THE COLD
• THE ISSUE OF DISARMING OF RWANDAN LIBERATION
  ARMY(ALIR) IS CRUCIAL, NO NEGOTIATIONS ON POWER
  SHARING AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN FORCES WILL
  SUCCEED UNLESS THIS ISSUE IS RESOLVED
• THE PRETORIA DEAL IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE FOR THE
  FIRST TIME THERE IS EVIDENCE OF POLITICAL WILL
  FROM RWANDA AND DRC GOVT TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE.
• THIS CAN LEAD TO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ALL
  ROLE PLAYERS, POSSIBLY FACILITATED BY PRESIDENT
  MBEKI

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PRETORIA DEAL

• THE PRETORIA DEAL ADDRESSES ONE OF THE KEY
  ASPECTS OF LUSAKA, THE DISARMING OF ALIR FORCES
• PRETORIA DEAL PROVIDED AN INDICATION OF THE
  POLITICAL WILL FOR DISARMAMENT FROM THE DRC AND
  RWANDA, MONITORED BY A THIRD PARTY(UN AND SOUTH
  AFRICA)
• IT IS FORESEEN THAT MONUC WILL IMPLEMENT THE DEAL
  AS PART OF PHASE 3, DDRRR
• THE KEY TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROGRAMME
  INTER ALIA
• FINALISATION OF MONUC PHASE 3 WITHIN 15 DAYS OF
  SIGNATURE
• ESTABLISHMENT AND OPERATIONALISATION OF ASSEMBLY
  POINTS WITHIN 25 DAYS OF SIGNATURE
• DDRRR OF ALIR TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN 90 DAYSOF
  SIGNATURE
• WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS WITHIN 90 DAYS OF
  SIGNATURE

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PRETORIA DEAL(CONTD)

• ADMISSION BY DRC GOVT OF SUPPORT TO ALIR AND
  COMMITMENT TO COLLABORATE WITH MONUC TO DISARM
  THESE FORCES
• DRC TO RE-ESTABLISH CONTROL OVER TERRITORIES
  PRESENTLY OCCUPIED BY RPA AND RCD-G, RWANDA
  INTERPRETATION IS THAT MONUC WILL REPLACE AND
  MONITOR THIS AREA
• SECURITY CURTAIN
• ISSUE OF TRACKING DOWN AND DISARMING ARMED GROUPS
  EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC. IT IS BEYOND THE MANDATE
  OF MONUC.
• RESPONSIBILITY OF DRC GOV IN CO-OPERATION WITH
  MONUC AND JMC IN TERRITORY UNDER DRC CONTROL.
  MOST FORCES DEPLOYED IN AREAS OUTSIDE. RCD-G
  DENIED DRC GOVT IF NOT PART OF INTEGRATED DEFENCE
  FORCE.
• SOUTH AFRICA AS PART OF THIRD PARTY TO IMPLEMENT,
  MONITOR AND VERIFY THE DEAL

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PRETORIA DEAL(CONTD)

• SECRETARIAT ALREADY IN KINSHASA
• ISSUE OF UN MANDATE, STILL UNCHANGED
• TIME SCALES ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE, RATHER A
  SEQUENTIAL PROCESS, EACH STEP WILL REQUIRE THE
  PRIOR COMPLETION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
• DISARMING AND DISMANTLING OF INTERHAMWE AND
  EX-FAR ON D10
• DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL FORCE LEVELS BY D15
• WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS, BEGINNING ON D45
• THE CAPACITY OF MONUC, NEEDS 4 TASK FORCES TO
  EXECUTE PHASE 3
• PRESIDENT MBEKI PLANS TO GET THE POLITICAL
  PROCESS GOING IN THE DRC

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CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION
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MONUC DEPLOYMENT
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(No Transcript)
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REBEL DEPLOYMENT
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REBEL GROUPS STRENGTH

• RCD-GOMA 15 000
• MLC 10 000
• RCD-K-ML 2 000
• RCD - N 3 000

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FOREIGN FORCES DEPLOYMENT
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(No Transcript)
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MILITARY ACTIVITIES 17 TO 29 AUG 2002

• SECTOR 1
• MLC TROOPS MOVED FROM BASAKUSU TO ISIRO BY
  ANTONOV
• SECTOR 2
• LOW LEVEL AIRDROP OF AK 47 AND AMMO IN THE MANDRO
  AREA(15 KM EAST OF BUNIA) FROM BURUNDI
• 14 AUG 16 CIVILANS AND 6 SOLDIERS WERE KILLED AT
  BOGORO(25 KMS SW OF BUNIA
• UPC MILITIA CAPTURE A VILLAGE 60 KMS SW OF BUNIA

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CONT

• SECTOR 3
• SHOOTING INCIDENTS IN BUKAVU, NORTH OF FIZI, PEPA
  AND PWETO
• LOW LEVEL MAI-MAI VIOLENCE NEAR KINDU, 13 MAI-MAI
  WERE KILLED IN CLASHES WITH RPA 40 KM FROM KINDU
  ON KALEMI ROAD
• 20 AUG SHOOTING CONTINUE ALL DAY LONG FROM THE
  OUTSKIRTS OF KINDU, RCD-G REINFORCED KINDU WITH 2
  BATTALIONS, ONE FROM GOMA AND ONE COMPOSITE
  BATTALION
• RCD-N AND UPC(HEMA MILITIA) ALLIANCE COULD
  DESTABILISE THE EAST

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CONT

• RCD N VERSUS RCD K/ML
• RCD N REINFORCED HEAVILY BY MLC PUSHED INTO
  ORIENTALE PROVINCE.
• ON THE ISIRO MUNGBERE AXIS RCD N RECAPTURED
  MUNGBERE WITH 1 X BN WITH THE INTENTION OF
  ADVANCING ON DURA
• ON THE ISIRO DUNGU ROAD, RCD N HAS RETAKEN
  GANGA AND INTENDED TO CONTINUE TO FARADJE AND
  THEN LINK UP WITH THE TROOPS ON THE MUNGBERE AXIS
• ON THE ISIRO WAMBA AXIS RCD N CONTROLLED
  WAMBA AND HAD ADVANCE TO BAYANGA IN THE DIRECTION
  OF NIA - NIA,
• ZDF WITHDRAWL
• 15 AUG, D COY 13 SADC BN WITHDREW FROMILEBO TO
  KANANGA AND WAS REPLACED BT FAC
• ON 19 AUG A COY FROM ILEBO JOINED THE KANANGA BN
• ON 22 AUG 1st MECH BN WITHDREW FROM ZEWE AIRPORT
  TO MBUJI MAYI

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CONT

• UPDF WITHDRAWL
• UPDF WITHDREW FROM BENI, 1 X BN, GABOLITE, 1 X PL
• 1 X BN STILL IN BUNIA ON UN REQUEST
• RWANDAN MOVEMENT
• 10 000 TROOPS MOVET INTO ITURI PROVINCE
• 16 KM FROM LUBERO
• 1000 RPA TROOPS SEIZING KASUO, 30 KM FROM LUBERO

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MONUC PHASE 3
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GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF MONUC DDRRR PROGRAMME IN
THE DRC

• VOLUNTARY DISARMAMENT
• LINKS WITH OTHER ASPECTS OF THE PEACE PROCESS
• DISENGAGEMENT OF FORCES
• WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN ARMIES
• INTER CONGOLESE DIALOGUE
• COOPERATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES
• COMMUNITY PROGRAMMES
• COOPERATION WITH NATIONAL AND REGIONAL
  GOVERNMENTS
• TARGET AREA FOR DDRRR
• EX FAR
• INTERHAMWE
• ALIR 1
• ALIR 2

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CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

• STAGE 1 TRANSITIONAL OPERATIONS.
• DEPLOYMENT OF COMMAND AND CONTROL, LOGISTIC,
  ENGINEERING AND GUARD ASSETS TO KINDU
• THEREAFTER THE DEPLOYMENT OF TASK FORCE I TO
  KINDU FOR DEPLOYMENT INTO STAGE 1 AREA OF
  OPERATIONS, FORWARD HQ IN KINDU
• FORCE NOT BIGGER THAN 2500
• STAGE 2 ASSISTANCE TO THE D3 PROGRAMME.
• DEPENDS ON THE SUCCESS OF THE INITIAL DEPLOYMENT
  IN CREATING CONDITIONS OF CONFIDENCE AND
  SECURITY TO EMBARKING ON MEANINGFUL D3 ACTIVITY
• SWIFT BUILD-UP OF TASK FORCES 2-4 IN STAGE 2 AREA
  OF OPERATIONS (NOT TO EXCEED 7000)
• STAGE 3 SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS.
• SITUATION NOT YET CLEAR ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE
  SCOPE AND SCALE OF SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS BUT
  THESE WILL BE UNDERPINNED BY THE FOLLOWING KEY
  CONCEPTS
• EXTENT OF ANY MONUC RESPONSIBILITY FOR MONITORING
  BORDER SECURITY
• TO LINK KINDU WITH KISANGANI, LUMUBASI AND KALEMI

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UPDATE ON PHASE 3

• KISANGANI OFFICE DEPLOYED AND FULLY OPERATIONAL
• DATABASE AND INITIAL PICTURE OF THE ARMED GROUP
  SETUP
• RECCE IN KISANGANI AND KINDU PERFORMED
• 1ST INFORMATION CAMPAIGN PREPARED AND LAUNCHED
• DDRRR DIVISION DEPLOYED
• KISANGANI GUARD UNIT DEPLOYED
• BROAD INFO CAMPAIGN STARTED
• KINDU UNIT DEPLOYED
• LOCATION OF DDRRR CAMPS IDENTIFIED

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MONUC AND THE PRETORIA DEAL

• THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL WILL TAKE
  PLACE THROUGH THE MONUC STRUCTURE
• MONUC PHASE 3 WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ACTIVITY
• THE THIRD PARTY SECRETARIAT (SA AND UN) HAS BEEN
  ESTABLISHED IN KINSHASA
• THE SECRETARIAT COORDINATION MECHANISM WITH MONUC
  HAS NOT BEEN ESTABLISHED
• SOUTH AFRICA WILL POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE FIRST TASK
  FORCE

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CONCLUSION

• INTERLOCKING PROCESSES TO SUCCEED
• THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL
• THE EXECUTION OF MONUC PHASE 3
• THE COMPLETION OF THE POLITICAL SOLUTION IN THE
  DRC
• THE REGIONAL SUMMIT