Gleissberg Solar Cycle: Pacemaker

1
Gleissberg Solar Cycle Pacemaker of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation?
R. Tim Patterson Andreas Prokoph (Carleton
University) Graeme Swindles (Bradford
University) Helen Roe (Queens University of
Belfast) Arun Kumar (King Fahd University of
Petroleum Minerals)
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NE Pacific Climate and OceanographicResearch
Canadian Foundation For Climate and
Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS)
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Effingham Inlet Vancouver Island
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Conductivity Temperature Depth (CTD) Rosette
Effingham Inlet
Patterson et al. 2000. J. Foram. Res., 30
321-335
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NE PacificClimate and OceanographyMost
influenced by Aleutian Low North Pacific High
Ware Thomson, 2000, J. Climate, 13 3209-3220.
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NE Pacific Climate and Oceanography
Jet Stream is planetary wave which influences
AL and NPH
Ware Thomson, 2000, J. Climate, 13 3209-3220.
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Effingham Inlet Annually deposited laminations
linked to changing climate conditions.
Chang et al. 2003. Palaios, 18 477-494
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Effingham Inlet Climate Record Piston Core
TUL99B03
Correlation With Many Different Solar Cycles

• 11 yr Schwabe Cycle
• 75-90 yr Gleissberg Cycle
• 200-500 yr Suess Cycle
• 1100-1500 yr Bond Cycle

Sediment Gray-Scale Values Morlet Wavelet
Analysis (TUL99B03)
75-90 yr Gleissberg solar cycle fades in and out.
Patterson et al. 2004. Sedimentary Geology, 172
67-84.
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Effingham Inlet Northern Anchovy - Pacific
Herring Population Trends Cycles
3,500 yBP phase/ frequency shift evident in both
herring and anchovy data Well-documented
Gleissberg Cycle ( 75-90 yrs) occurs frequently
for long periods of time.
3500 yBP
Piston Core TUL99B03
Patterson et al. 2004 Palaeontologia Electronica
7, 22 p. Patterson et al. 2005 Marine
Micropaleontology 55 183-204
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Effingham Inlet High Resolution Climate Record
High Sun Activity
106valves/gm
AL Dominated (Low Sun)
Total Diatoms
3550 yBP
Low Sun Activity
Diatom Rich Laminae Thickness
62 year annual climate record from 4400 y BP.
Significant climate variation over short
Interval.
Depth in Core (cm)
Resting Spores
Terriginous Laminae Thickness
NPH Dominated (High Sun)
LaminaeThickness (mm)
Chang and Patterson, 2005, Palaeogeography,
Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 226 72-92.
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A Celestial Climate Driver
Sunspot Cycle
Solar Energy Flux
Galactic Cosmic Rays
Cloud Formation
Atmospheric Water Cycle (Clouds)
Shaviv Veizer 2003. GSA Today 134-9 Veizer, J.
2005 Geoscience Canada, 32 13-30 Svensmark et
al. 2006 Proc. Royal Soc. Ser. A.

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Additional Solar Climate Effects
Ultraviolet Radiation
Ozone Layer
Hameed Lee 2005 GRL 32, L23817
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Additional Solar Climate Effects
Ultraviolet Radiation
Ozone Layer
Hameed Lee 2005 GRL 32, L23817
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Additional Solar Climate Effects
Ultraviolet Radiation

• 0.4 increase in solar shortwave UV
  radiation under solar maximum conditions.
• Influences
• Ozone concentration
• Radiative heating
• Zonal circulation

Ozone Layer
Hameed Lee 2005 GRL 32, L23817
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Additional Solar Climate Effects
Tropopause
Increased rate of penetration of jet stream
from stratosphere to troposphere under solar
maximum conditions.
Polar Jet Stream
Subtropical Jet Stream
Polar Jet Stream
Subtropical Jet Stream
Hameed Lee 2005 GRL 32, L23817
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Meanwhile, Back in the NE Pacific
Polar Jet
AL
NPH
AL
Subtropical Jet
Hameed Lee 2003 AGU 84, SH11E-03 Christoforou
Hameed 1997 GRL 24, 293-296.
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Meanwhile, Back in the NE Pacific
Correlation between sunspot cycle and location of
Aleutian Low (AL) and North Pacific High (NPH)
AL migrates eastward during solar minimum NPH
migrates southward during solar minimum
AL
NPH
Hameed Lee 2003 AGU 84, SH11E-03 Christoforou
Hameed 1997 GRL 24, 293-296.
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Effingham Climate Diatom Production
Teleconnection
Sunspot Cycle Celestial / Solar Modulation
Hameed Lee 2003 AGU 84, SH11E-03
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
PDO is long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific
climate variability. PDO most visible in North
Pacific/North American sector, while secondary
signatures exist in tropics
- opposite true for ENSO. PDO fluctuations
most energetic in two general periodicities

• 15-to-25 years
• - 50-to-70 years.

http//ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/28/home/alexeyk/m
ydata/TSsvd.in29readfile/.SST/.PDO/
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index
PDO Index defined as North Pacific monthly sea
surface temperature variability poleward of 20N
for 1900-93 period.
Two full PDO cycles in 20th century Cool" PDO
regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and from
1947-1976 Warm" PDO regimes dominated from
1925-1946 and from 1977 through mid-1990's.
http//ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/28/home/alexeyk/m
ydata/TSsvd.in29readfile/.SST/.PDO/
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Effingham Inlet Core MD02-2494 - Opal
20
33
50
Years
70
90
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
20
33
Years
50
70
90
6600
6700
6800
6900
7000
7100
7200
7300
7400
7500
7600
7700
7800
7900
8000
Years Before Present
Ivanochko et al. 2008 CJEX 45 1317-1329.
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NOAA/NESDIS SST 50 KM
NE Pacific November 2008 Sea Surface
Temperatures (SST)
Winter SST in coastal BC ranges from 4-11.4C
along a N-S gradient.
http//www.nesdis.noaa.gov/
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Dinoflagellate-Cyst Winter Sea Surface
Temperature (SST) Transfer Function
TUL99B03
TUL99B11
10 µm
Radi de Vernal 2004 Palaeobotany and Palynology
128 169-193
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Dinoflagellate-Cyst Winter Sea Surface
Temperature (SST) Transfer Function
10 µm
TUL99B03
TUL99B11
Radi et al. 2007 Marine Micropaleontology 62
269-297
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Dinoflagellate Cyst-Based Winter Sea Surface
Temperature (SST) Reconstruction
10 µm
TUL99B03
Temperature C
Temperature C
TUL99B11
Patterson et al. (unpublished data).
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Middle Holocene
TUL99B03

• NPH Dominant
• Strong upwelling
• Warm / Dry
• PDO negative

NPH
AL
TUL99B11
Transition to Late Holocene ca 3550 yBP
TUL99B03
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Warm / Dry
Patterson et al. 2004. Sedimentary Geology, 172
67-84.
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Late Holocene

• Aleutian Low Dominant
• Weaker upwelling
• Neoglacial Advances

BC Glaciers
Global Glacial Advances
TUL99B11
Transition to Late Holocene ca 3550 yBP
TUL99B03
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Cold Episodes
Warm / Dry
Moist / Cool
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Late Holocene

• California Current Weakened
• Central Gyre Migrated shoreward
• Higher SSTs
• More El Niño-like PDO

BC Glaciers
Global Glacial Advances
TUL99B11
Transition to Late Holocene ca 3550 yBP
TUL99B03
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Cold Episodes
Warm / Dry
Moist / Cool
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MD02-2494
180-250
TUL99B11
Transition to Late Holocene ca 3550 yBP
TUL99B03
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Cold Episodes
Warm / Dry
Moist / Cool
Ivanochko et al. 2008 CJEX 45 1317-1329.
30
TUL99B11
Medieval Warm Period ca 1100 yBP (AD 900)
TUL99B03
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Cold Episodes
Warm / Dry
Moist / Cool
31

• SSTs declined through MWP
• Higher Productivity
• Weaker Gleissberg / PDO
• NPH Stronger
• Stronger California Current
• Warmer Dryer

NPH
Medieval Warm Period
AL
Transition to Late Holocene ca 3550 yBP
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
TUL99B11
Warm / Dry
Moist / Cool
TUL99B03
AD 900
AD 1300
32

• Medieval Warm Period corresponds to
• interval of Mega-drought in western
• North America.
• Prolonged and pronounced
• negative PDO

Medieval Warm Period
Transition to Late Holocene ca 3550 yBP
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Cold Episodes
TUL99B11
Warm / Dry
Moist / Cool
TUL99B03
AD 900
AD 1300
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1034
1253

• During Little Ice Age SSTs flattened
• remained cool.
• Generally Positive PDOs in NE Pacific
• Less arid terrestrial conditions

1150
Less Arid LIA
936
Drought Area
Dryer
1829
1613
1321
1915
Wetter
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
Year
Little Ice Age
Transition to Late Holocene ca 3550 yBP
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Cold Episodes
Warm / Dry
Moist / Cool
AD 1300
AD 1870
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MD02-2494
180-250
Year
Little Ice Age
Transition to Late Holocene ca 3550 yBP
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Cold Episodes
Warm / Dry
Moist / Cool
AD 1300
AD 1900
Ivanochko et al. 2008 CJEX 45 1317-1329.
35
1034
1253
Post LIA
1150
936

• Post LIA increase in SSTs
• Generally Positive PDOs in NE Pacific
• Increased arid terrestrial conditions

Drought Area
Dryer
1829
1613
1321
1915
Wetter
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
Year
Post LIA
Transition to Late Holocene ca 3550 yBP
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Cold Episodes
Warm / Dry
Moist / Cool
AD 1900
Cooke et al. 2008 Science 306 1015-1018
36

• Post LIA increase in SSTs
• Generally Positive PDOs in NE Pacific
• Increased arid terrestrial conditions

Post LIA
Transition to Late Holocene ca 3550 yBP
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Temperature C
TUL99B11
TUL99B03
Cold Episodes
Warm / Dry
Moist / Cool
AD 1900
http//ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/28/home/alexeyk/m
ydata/TSsvd.in29readfile/.SST/.PDO/
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PDO Gleissberg Cycles in Reconstruction of
Summer Rainfall (Drought/Flood) in Eastern China
PDO persistent feature composed of phase-locked
oscillations. Gleissberg Solar Cycle
controls Major rhythm of PDO during Little Ice
Age.
Shen et al. 2006 Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L03702,
doi10.1029/2005GL024804
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Conclusions

• Winter SST variation in Effingham Inlet enhances
  knowledge of relationship between NE Pacific
  Paleoceanography and terrestrial climate history.
• High productivity marine regimes and terrestrial
  drought intervals characterized by 200 year de
  Vries / Seuss-type cycles
• 90 year Gleissberg cycles dominate significant
  part of record. PDOs of varying intensity are
  robust features during these intervals.
• When Gleissberg cycles are absent or weak
  PDO-like signals are highly irregular or absent.
• Results consistent with hypothesis that PDO
  periodicity is non-linear response to rhythm of
  Gleissberg pacemaker.