Title: GECAFS DSS Inaugural Workshop Jan 11, 2005
1GECAFS DSS Inaugural WorkshopJan 11, 2005
- Steve Sonka
- University of Illinois
2Agenda
- Philosophy
- Demonstration
- A Case Study
- Results,
- Effects, and
- Lessons
3Philosophy (1)
- Factors in the external environment
- Government policies
- Technology
- Biogeophysical
- Human decision making processes are challenged
when decisions involve - Time lags (between decision and outcome)
- Uncertainty
- Causal ambiguity
4Philosophy (2)
- Strategic versus operating choices,
- Climate versus weather
- Operating choices
- Routine
- DSSs enhance
- Strategic choices
- Humans DSSs tend to struggle
- Effective DSSs for strategic choice
- As much to generate better questions
- As to provide answers
5Philosophy (3)Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
- DSSs inform, dont make decisions
- Decision will come from some group process
- DSS not likely to be used by decision maker
- Credibility must be earned, but not by use
- Decision maker(s) wont be able to give enough
attention - Decision makers
- Can describe problems/issues/concern
- DSS developer is responsible for design
6Visualization PrinciplesTufte
- Escape the Flatland (of 2 dimensions)
- Color
- Compared to what ?
- Time as the 4th dimension
- Macro / micro perspectives
7The Case Study
- Client
- Illinois Soybean Program Operating Board
- NGO
- Mission components
- Market development
- Research
- Charge Help us better anticipate the future
global need for protein - Longer term perspective
- Enhance commonality of perspective
- Improve communication across sector
8 The Dynamics of Protein and Malnutrition
- Charge from soybean industry leaders Help us
better anticipate the future global need for
protein - Longer term
- Commonality of perspective
- Accurate, science-based methods
9 The Protein Consumption Dynamics (PCD) Model
- The PCD model
- A system dynamics simulation engine (Powersim)
- A visualization delivery tool (In3D)
- Driving forces in the simulation
- Population
- Total income
- Diet choices relative to per capita income
10Relationships Underlyingthe PCD Model
Total Population
Total Malnourished
Total Appetite
Income Distribution Per Capita
Proportion Malnourished
Total Income
Per Capita Appetite
11Commodities of Interest
12Regional Aggregations
13 Move to Visualization
- Fisher, D. K. 2000. Assessing how information
affects cognitive maps of strategic issues.
Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation. University of
Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. - Fisher, D. K., S. T. Sonka, and R. E. Westgren.
"Strategic Decision Making in the
Quasi-Government Sector The Illinois Soybean
Program Operating Board" International Journal of
Organization Theory and Behavior, 7(2004)42-65.
14Effects
- Quasi experimental measurements
- Anecdotal interpretation of actual decisions
15Ranking of Strategic Issues Before and After
Intervention
Rank (1 is MOST important)
16Ranking of Strategic Issues Before and After
Intervention
Rank (1 is MOST important)
17Ranking of Strategic Issues Before and After
Intervention
Rank (1 is MOST important)
18Implications / Effects
- Existing marketing / promotion skills and
resources are aligned with past, not the future
(geography and practices) - Global income growth is 1 strategic issue
(international trade policy) - Efforts to reduce malnutrition should be on the
strategic agenda for human and business reasons
(World Initiative for Soy in Human Health) - Development of Version 2 funded
19 Lessons
- Strategic choices / DSSs have distinctive
characteristics - Philosophy goal is better conversation
- Visualization Tufte principles are helpful
- Case study
- intervention and
- the IT-based tools