Risk%20Management

1
Risk Management

• Risk is the product of
• Probability that something will go wrong
• And
• Severity of its consequences
• How to reduce risk?
• Reduce probability that something will go wrong
• Reduce severity of consequences

2
Risk Management

• Failure mode and effects analysis
• FMEA involves reviewing as many components,
  assemblies, and subsystems as possible to
  identify failure modes, and their causes and
  effects. For each component, the failure modes
  and their resulting effects on the rest of the
  system are recorded in a specific FMEA worksheet.
  From Wiki

3
Risks are Everywhere

• Think of some task you like to get done today
• Does it have a clear, specific, and desired
  outcome?
• Exercise for an hour
• Get a bearing for the mini project
• Get some lab report done
• Endure this class
• Endure this class without screaming (desired
  outcome)
• Think of an overseas travel
• Think of your capstone project
• What are the desired outcomes?

4
Technical Risk ManagementTRM

• TRM 4-step Methodology
• Risk Identification
• Risk Assessment
• Risk Mitigation
• Risk Monitoring

5
Risk Identification

• Risk Identification is best done as a group
• Identify the desired outcomes
• Use brainstorming methods to identify risks
• Only include meaningful risks
• Continue until no more risks are identified
• Keep track of risks as a part of the project plan

6
Risk Assessment

• Risk Assessment
• What are the odds of the risk event occurring
• Rare
• Unlikely
• Possible
• Likely
• Frequent

7
Risk Assessment

• Risk Assessment
• What are the consequences of the risk event
• Catastrophic
• Severe
• Marginal (not severe but significant enough)
• Negligible
• In design projects, the consequences are usually
  in terms of time, budget, and product meeting PDS
  targets.

8
Risk Scoring Matrix
Frequent Likely Possible Unlikely Rare
Catastrophic E E H H M
Severe E H H M L
Marginal H M M L L
Negligible M L L L L
9
Risk Assessment

• Levels of Risk
• Extreme Do not accept level of risk
• High Do not accept level of risk
• Medium Mitigate if resources allow
• Low - Accept

10
Risk Mitigation Plan

• Reducing the probability of failure
• More knowledge ? Less Risk
• More accurate assessment
• Research Analysis
• Simulation
• Experimentation
• Published studies, statistical data
• Design changes

11
Risk Mitigation Plan

• Reducing consequences of events
• More accurate assessment of consequences
• Research Analysis
• Simulation
• Experimentation
• Published studies
• Design Changes

12
Example

• Assessment
• Bolt failure for a fuel tank is initially a
  probable event and its consequences are
  catastrophic.
• Mitigation
• Detailed analysis shows it is extremely unlikely.
• Further investigation shows consequences are not
  as severe as initially perceived.
• OR
• Select higher strength or larger bolts
• Add features to contain damage in case of failure

13
Example

• Risk
• Magnets stuck to the disk may fly off
• Probability High
• Consequences Severe injury or death
• Risk Assessment Extreme

14
Example

• Mitigation (Reducing odds of the event)
• More accurate assessment of forces and
  probability of magnets flying off at maximum 1000
  rpm
• Conclusions Very unlikely
• Design Changes
• Add screws or other retaining parts
• Use epoxy
• Add speed sensors and automatic cut off

15
Example

• Mitigation (Reducing consequences)
• More accurate assessment of consequences
• Remains catastrophic
• Reducing consequences of the event
• Add an enclosure
• Operate remotely