A comparison of Two NCEP EMC GFS Verification Web Sites PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Title: A comparison of Two NCEP EMC GFS Verification Web Sites


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A comparison of Two NCEP EMC GFS Verification Web
Sites
Historical Verification Web Site New Verification Web Site
http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/
Climatology for computing Anomaly Correlation Northern Hemisphere an old 15-year data set from about 1951-1965, consisting only of 1000-mb and 500-mb heights. Southern Hemisphere from 1980's, consists only of an 8-year record. Tropics from a 23-year reanalysis. A 30-year climatology from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, consists of PSL and U,V,T, Z on multiple layers (1000, 850, 700, 500, and 250 hPa).
Verification Truth Uses pgbf00 (zero-hour forecasts) as the truth for verification. Uses pgbanl (model analysis) as the truth for verification. Usually AC verified against pgbanl will be smaller than that verified against pgbf00, and RMSE will be larger.
Filtering Uses only the first zonal 20 waves for computing anomaly correlation Uses unfiltered fields for computing anomaly correlation
Stats Format Height Stats (1000 500 hPa) and wind stats (200 850 hPa) are directly computed and saved as text files. Partial sums for Psl, and U, V, T, Z on multiple layers are computed and saved as the EMC-wide unified VSDB database. AC, RMSE, BIAS, Ratio of Standard Deviation, Murthys MSE Skill Scores etc are derived from the partial sums when maps are made.
Record Length Available back from 1984 for AC, and 1996 for winds Available back from 2006 for all variables.
Package Flexibility and Web page style Web page is descriptive. Verification package is designed specifically for comparing operational NWP models. Web page is tabulated. Verification package is designed for verifying both operational and experimental forecasts. Many developers have been using the package for model development.
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