Michiko Masutani

1
Progress and Plans in Joint OSSEs
Michiko Masutani Joint OSSE coordinator
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/OSSE
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More evaluations of Nature Run performed and
planned
Evaluation of Clouds Simpson Weather
Associates SWA
Comparison between the ECMWF T511 Nature Run
against climatology of observation
20050601-20060531, expeskb, cycle31r1 Adrian
Tompkins, ECMWF Initial assessment Erik
Andersson(ECMWF) Cyclone track Thomas Jung
(ECMWF)
Case Events Identified from ECMWF T799 NRMSU
Study of Low level jet Juan Carlos Jusem,NASA/SIVO
Comparison of zonal mean zonal wind jet maxima,
NR and ECMWF analysis, NH Arctic winter in
Nature Run Nikki Prive, ESRL
Drift in Nature run Diurnal cycle Michiko
Masutani, EMC
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Simulation of Observations required for
calibration
Existing instrument experiments must be simulated
for control and calibration and development of
DAS and RTM Test GOESR, NPOESS, and other future
satellite data
Simulation of Conventional ObservationsJack
Woollen (NCEP/EMC), Ron Errico (NASA/GMAO)
Simulation of Radiance for Calibration GMAO,
NESDIS, NCEPTong Zhu, Haibing Sun, Fuzhong
Weng(NOAA/NESDIS)Jack Woollen(NOAA/NCEP)Ron
Errico, Runhua Yang, Emily Liu, Lars Peter
Riishojgaard, Ravi Govindaraju (NASA/GSFC/GMAO)
Cloud Motion Vectors SWA - Advised by Chris
Velden -
Calibration experiments EMC,GMAO,ESRL
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Simulation of Observations
Simulation of DWLKNMI, SWA, NASA/GSFC, Ball(?)
Unmanned Air Craft System (UAS) NOAA/ESRL
Simulation Radiance data to be evaluated by
OSSEsGMAO,NESDIS,MSU,JCSDA, UW/SSEC and more
Uniform Raob for testing DAS EMC
Scatterometer KNMI has capibility
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OSSEs planned Funded or seeking funding but
starting with volunteers
OSSEs to investigate data impact of GOES and
preparation for GOES-R NESDIS, EMC
OSSE to evaluate DWL KNMI,SWA,EMC, GMAO,
NOAA/ESRL, and more
OSSE to evaluate UAS ESRL and NCEP
OSSEs for THORPEX T-PARC EMC, FSU, ESRL
Regional OSSEs to Evaluate ATMS and CrIS
Observations GRI/Mississippi State Univ (MSU),
JCSDA
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Various planned OSSE-related activities
Visualization of the Nature run Jibo Sanyal
(MSS), O. Reale (NASA/GSFC/GLA), H.
Mitchell(NASA/GSFC/SIVO)
Sensor Web NASA/GSFC/SIVO, SWA
Assimilation with LETKF possibly by 4D-var T.
Miyoshi(JMA) and T. Enomoto(JAMSTEC)
Analysis with surface pressure Gil Compo, P. D.
Sardeshmukh (ESRL)
Identical twin experiments It is worthwhile to
try identical twin experiments to understand
model error. Identical twin OSSEs can be only
used for illustration only . ECMWF offered to
perform identical twin OSSEs if there is specific
goals. (Erik Andersson)
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Projects being considered or seeking funding and
various possibilities
OSSE to design configuration of GPS Lidia
Cucurull,JCSDA,EMC
Regional OSSEs to evaluate DWL Zhaoxia Pu,Univ of
Utah
Evaluation data assimilation system Ron Errico,
GMAO
Simulation of ASCAT QuickScat XOVMM Scatterometer
Ad Stoffelen, KNMI
Evaluation of RAOB Drift Erik Andersson,EMCWF
Targeted Observation using LETKF Eugenia Kalnay,
UMCP
Evaluation of Drift Buoy Jean Pailleux, Meteo
France
More possibilities Evaluation of retrieval
program Simulating Gestational DWL, Ball
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Getting ready for OSSEs
? Produce perfect data and run calibration
experiments ? Design representativeness error and
observational error and redo calibration ?
Development of standard verification package ?
Clarify potential and limitations of OSSE and
educate community ? Meso/Regional OSSEs Joint
OSSE team agreed we have to concentrate on OSSEs
with existing NRs to study superobbed data impact
of high resolution data. However, there are
strong demands for mesoscale OSSEs. Joint OSSE
team is working on integrating mesoscale OSSE
interest. ? Coordination of work - Uniform
representation of observational data and
results - Keep track who actually did the work
and various contributions - Organizing
publication OSSE Chapter in Data Assimilation
book from Springer Introductory article in
BAMS ? Joint OSSE web site
http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/JointOSSEs
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Requirements for a future Nature Run - Some
suggestions -
We need to avoid many poorly planned and assessed
nature run
? The NWP model must have good forecast skill.
Great visualization does not guarantee good
forecast skill. ? At least a 3 month lower
resolution run with the same model is required to
provide a spin-up period for bias correction. ?
Must have a good TC or a severe storm in the
Nature Run period. ? Sufficient number of
vertical levels Minimum 91 levels ? Some degree
of coupling with the ocean and land surface ? If
it is regional, the effect of the lateral
boundary must be evaluated. ? A list of
verification methods must be produced by Joint
OSSE. ? Need NR to be shared within Joint OSSE ?
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