International Mortality Comparisons

1
International Mortality Comparisons

• Richard MacMinnEdmondson-Miller Chair
• Katie School
• College of Business
• Illinois State University

2
Opening comments

• Data
• The Human Mortality Database
• Perspectives on international mortality data
• Period data
• Select birth cohorts
• Rationales for mortality improvements

3
Objectives

• Look for common trends in mortality improvement
  data
• Identify select birth cohorts
• Seek causal links for mortality improvements
• Compare immediate annuity costs using historical
  mortality data

4
Select birth cohorts

• A select cohort is a birth cohort characterized
  by greater rates of mortality improvement that
  previous and subsequent generations.
• A number of select birth cohorts have been
  identified in the literature
• England Wales (1925-45), Sweden (1900-10), and
  Japan (1910-20)
• More select birth cohorts are noted here.

5
Select birth cohorts
Country Select cohort years
England Wales 1925-44
Norway 1940-44
Sweden 1925-34
Denmark 1935-39
France 1935-44
Switzerland 1930-34
Italy 1910-19, 1930-39
Austria 1905-14, 1935-39
Japan 1910-19, 1940-44
United States 1910-19, 1930-39
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England Wales

• There are some dramatic mortality improvements by
  period
• The GAD identified generations born between 1925
  and 1945 as select birth cohorts.
• Mean mortality improvements jumped from a max of
  1.8 to 3.8 for select cohorts.
• The standard deviation jumped from .043 to .056

7
England Wales
8
England Wales
9
England Wales
10
England Wales

• The next figure compares immediate annuity costs
  for different birth cohorts.
• At each date the figure provides the cost for an
  immediate annuity that covers the individual for
  age 25 through 45.

11
England Wales
12
England Wales
13
England Wales
14
Norway

• There are some dramatic mortality improvements by
  period
• Note the 1870s and late 1940s.
• A 1940 select birth cohort has been identified.

15
Norway
16
Norway
17
Norway
18
Sweden

• There are some dramatic mortality improvements by
  period
• Note 1915-19 and the early 1940s.
• 1925 and 1930 select birth cohorts have been
  identified.
• The mean mortality improvement increased and the
  standard deviation decreased for the select
  cohorts.

19
Sweden
20
Sweden
21
Sweden
22
Denmark

• There are some dramatic improvements in the
  1940s
• 1925 and 1935 exhibit select cohorts properties

23
Denmark
24
Denmark
25
Denmark
26
France

• There are dramatic period effects subsequent to
  1915 and 1945.
• A 1935 select cohort seems to exist

27
France
28
France
29
France
30
France
31
West Germany

• Some dramatic period effects exist, e.g., 1965.
• 1905, 1910 and 1915 exhibit select birth cohort
  effects

32
West Germany
33
West Germany
34
West Germany
35
Switzerland

• There are quite dramatic period effects for the
  1920s and 1940s
• 1930 and 1950 exhibit select cohort properties

36
Switzerland
37
Switzerland
38
Switzerland
39
Switzerland
40
Italy

• There are dramatic positive and negative effects
  in the 1940s.
• The 1915, 1930 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select
  properties.
• The 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit higher mean
  mortality improvements and lower standard
  deviations that surrounding cohorts

41
Italy
42
Italy
43
Italy
44
Italy
45
Austria

• There is a significant negative mortality effect
  in the 1960s similar to other countries.
• The 1900, 1905, 1910, 1915 and 1935 cohorts
  exhibit select properties

46
Austria
47
Austria
48
Austria
49
Austria
50
Japan

• Significant period effects persisted into the
  1950s at early ages.
• The 1910, 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select
  properties

51
Japan
52
Japan
53
Japan
54
Japan
55
Japan

• The next figure compares immediate annuity costs
  for different birth cohorts.
• At each date the figure provides the cost for an
  immediate annuity that covers the individual for
  age 25 through 45.

56
Japan
57
United States

• Significant period effects occurred in the 1960s
  and 1980s.
• The 1915, 1930 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select
  properties

58
United States
59
United States
60
United States
61
United States
62
United States

• The next figure compares immediate annuity costs
  for different birth cohorts.
• At each date the figure provides the cost for an
  immediate annuity that covers the individual for
  age 25 through 45.

63
United States
64
Annuity comparisons

• The figure provides a comparison of immediate
  annuity costs for Japan, England Wales and the
  United States

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Annuity comparisons

• The correlation between the change in costs is
  significant. The correlation between the
• US and England Wales is 59
• US and Japan is 52
• England Wales and Japan is 33

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Close

• The mortality experience in the countries
  investigated exhibit similar trends from both a
  period and a cohort perspective.
• The similar mortality experience is confirmed by
  the sizable correlation between the changes in
  annuity costs.