Muslim Radicalism in Pakistan and Afghanistan

1
Muslim Radicalism in Pakistan and Afghanistan

• Juan Cole
• www.juancole.com

2
Afghanistan
3
Ethnic Groups

• Pushtuns in South
• Hazaras in Center
• Tajiks in northeast, northwest
• Uzbeks in North

4
Afghanistan

• Pop. 24 mn.
• Literacy 36
• 30 of 7,000 schools destroyed under Taliban
• GDP 5 bn. per capita 208 (among poorest in
  world)
• Life expectancy 43

5
Rise of Taliban

• Pakistan backs seminary students from early 90s
• Taliban
• Trained by Northwest Frontier Constabulary
• Then Inter-Services Intelligence

6
After Taliban

• Tajik Northern Alliance dominates government
• President Karzai (a Pushtun) is weak
• Little investment by US, intl community
• Provinces fall into hands of warlords

7
US, NATO

• 9,000 US troops still engaged in search and
  destroy
• 2003 August ISAF in Kabul taken over by NATO.
• ISAF beginning to branch out

8
Taliban Commanders

• Former Taliban commanders
• Saifur Rahman commanded Taliban against Operation
  Anaconda spring 2002
• In east, the Taliban's former deputy prime
  minister, Mullah Kabir, is supreme commander
• Works with with activists of the Hizb-i Islami.
  Ties to Inter-Services Intelligence in Pakistan

9
Resurgence of Taliban

• 2003 June 49 killed in clashes between Taliban
  fighters and government troops in Kandahar.
• Tie between terrorists, drug running
• 200,000 acres under poppy cultivation despite ban
• 40 of economy comes from opium (2 bn.)

10
Taliban Attacks

• Force of 2500 Taliban hiding out just over border
  in Pakistan
• 13 aid workers killed in Afghanistan in 2003
• 9 already gunned down in second half of February
• Including bombings, assassinations of UN
  personnel

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Constitution Elections

• 2004 January - Grand assembly - or Loya Jirga -
  adopts new constitution. President is stronger
  than Pushtun warlords and Islamists had wanted.
• Islam as religion of state.
• Question of whether elections can be held

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Pakistan

• 4 Provinces and Kashmir
• Punjab
• Sind
• Baluchistan
• NWFP (Pushtuns)
• Azad Kashmir

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Pakistan Challenges

• Pop. of 145 mn. Growing 2.1 per annum
• Low literacy 45
• Poor school system madrasahs substitute
• Still predominantly rural, poor
• Few signs of India-style globalization
• Light textiles important, disrupted by recent
  wars
• Militant Muslim groups grew up during anti-Soviet
  war, Kashmir

14
Musharraf

• Secular minded
• Hawk on Kashmir
• 1999 coup
• Turns on Taliban Sept. 2001
• Phony referendum May 2002
• Attempt to sideline major parties Oct. 2002
  backfires
• Islamists do well, hang parliament

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Pakistanis Largely not Islamists

• Cautions
• Most Pakistanis are not interested in political
  Islam
• Strong influence of Sufi mysticism,
  traditionalism in countryside
• Pakistan Peoples Party relatively secular
• Even Muslim League more for big landlords than
  for Islamism
• 1971-2001 Islamist parties never get more than 3
  of vote in national elections

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Pakistans Interest in Afghanistan

• Instability blocks Turkmenistan gas pipeline
• Central Asian trade

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Kashmir

• Jihadi groups trained in Afghanistan
• Could hit India in Kashmir
• Which Pakistan claims

18
Muslim Political Parties

• MMA main groups
• Jamaat-i Islami
• Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam JUI (Deobandi)
• Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan JUP

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Jamaat-i Islami

• Fundamentalist
• Initially anti-democratic
• Cadre organization
• Qazi Hussain Ahmad
• Does well in elections for first time in Oct.
  2002
• Demands return to 1973 constitution
• Musharraf must take off uniform
• Denies existence of al-Qaeda, demands end to
  manhunt

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Jamiat Ulama-i Islam

• Radical clerics
• Madrasahs trained Taliban
• Leader Fazlur Rahman
• Opposes US
• Wants manhunt for al-Qaeda stopped

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Radical Jihadi Groups

• Militant Organizatons
• The Army of the Pious
• The Army of Muhammad
• Soldiers of the Companions
• Anti-Shiite close to al-Qaeda
• Movement for the Imposition of Shiite Law

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Army of the Pious (Lashkar-i Taibah)

• Rooted in Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-Irshad (MDI),
  fundamentalist organization.
• Had recruited anti-Soviet fighters in 80s
• 1990 forms LT
• 1993 enters Kashmir
• Fighters trained in madrasahs
• Suspected in Delhi Parliament attack Dec. 2001
• Banned Jan. 2002
• Leader Hafiz Md. Saeed
• Regroups, MDI separates activities in Pakistan
  from LT in Kashmir
• LT now underground
• Seeks Central Asian pan-Islam

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Jaish Muhammad

• The Army of Muhammad
• Founded 2000
• By Masood Azhar
• active in Kashmir
• Funded by Bin Laden
• 13 Dec. 2001 Delhi parliament attack
• Banned Jan. 2002
• Dec. 2003 assassination attempt on Musharraf

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Army of the Companions

• Sipah-i Sahabah
• Emerges in Jhang area of Panjab mid-80s
• Violently anti-Shiite
• Assassinations of Shiites, Christians
• Trained in Afghanistan with Taliban
• Headed by Azam Tariq until his assassination Oct.
  2003
• Was elected from Jhang to parliament

25
Pakistani Army and AQ Khan

• Much smuggling of nuclear secrets happened
  1989-91
• Under Mirza Aslam Beg, Chief of Staff
• (Beg denies being in charge of nuclear program)
• Khan is an Islamic Nationalist who believes it is
  hypocritical for US to support Israels bomb
• ISI links to Islamists a worry 3-year rotations