Traffic model for the Bonn Agreement Area

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Traffic model for the Bonn Agreement Area
BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November,
Ronneby, Sweden
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BackgroundTask H Traffic Analysis
Traffic Analysis

• Overall objective
• To develop a model that describes the traffic in
  the area
• This is later applied with the cargo model to
  simulate accidents and consequences
• Accident type
• Location
• Spill size
• Spill substance
• Basis
• AIS data
• IHS Fairplay (representative ships)

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BackgroundProcess
Traffic Analysis

• AIS data
• Definition of route net
• Idealised traffic
• Obstacles to be treated
• Areas with no/low AIS coverage or missing data
• Middle of North Sea
• German Bight
• Other fallouts
• Future traffic

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BackgroundProject area and sub regions1
Atlantic2 Northern North Sea3 Eastern North
Sea4 Southern North Sea5 Channel
Traffic Analysis
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AIS basis
Traffic Analysis

• - Period 2011
• - The true traffic
• - Local differences

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AIS basis
Traffic Analysis

• - Clear routes are used
• TSS
• Reefs/shallow water
• Vessels take the shortest journey

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AIS basis
Traffic Analysis

• - Various vessel types

Only offshore
No offshore or fishing
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Route Net
Traffic Analysis

• 10000 routes

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Idealised traffic
Traffic Analysis
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Idealised traffic
Traffic Analysis

• For every route
• Representative vessels using route
• Mean value
• Standard deviation

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Idealised traffic
Traffic Analysis

• What do we want do capture
• Actual movement of vessels
• Harbour to harbour combinations

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Areas with low coverage
Traffic Analysis

• North sea and German Bight
• General approch
• Closure of gaps of up to 36 hours except vessels
  at the area around Kiel Canal
• Closure of all lt23 hours gaps
• Manuel correction of the number of vessels on the
  routes in the German Bight based on Accseas
  project traffic.

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Areas with low coverageProcedure
Traffic Analysis

• The individual vessel is followed
• Routes are closed by algorithm finding the
  shortest path
• Routes begins and ends at harbours

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Idealised traffic
Traffic Analysis

• What do we have in our traffic model
• Actual movement of vessels
• Harbour to harbour combinations
• For every route
• Vessel information
• Type
• Size
• Distribution
• From/to port

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Idealised traffic
Traffic Analysis

• How do we apply this later

Traffic model
Cargo model
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Route Net 2020
Traffic Analysis

• Changes caused by
• Windfarms
• New TSS

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Route Net 2020
Traffic Analysis

• Changes caused by
• Windfarms
• New TSS

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Idealised traffic 2020Process
Traffic Analysis

• Make new route net
• Identify ships affected
• Identify alternative route
• Future traffic changes
• Changes in the size of vessels
• Changes in the number of voyages

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Idealised traffic 2020
Traffic Analysis

• Routes affected by wind parks
• New TSS routes implemented
• New tracks have been found for all vessels
  affected
• Prognosis implemented by adjusting 2011 traffic.

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Summary and conclusion

• Traffic based on current situation 2011
• Best estimate of future traffic based on adjusted
  tracks, sizes, voyages of vessels
• Port-to-port cargo model a challenge but
  possible
• Connected with the other models
  (Cargo/Pilotage/other RRM)
• Input for the accident model

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Thank youbeaware.bonnagreement.org
Questions?