VALIDATE

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Validate - A Nationwide Dynamic Travel Demand
Model for Germany
Peter Vortisch, Volker Waßmuth, PTV AG, Germany
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VALIDATE A Transport Model for Germany

• A nationwide model for Germany(82 million
  residents)
• Hourly volumes on roads
• Should use as many public (or commercial) digital
  data as possible
• Should be easy to update
• Applications
• Regional and nationwide forecasts
• Traffic volumes for the set up of billboards
• Travel time estimation for navigation systems

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VALIDATE at a glance

• Representing Germany and the surrounding European
  countries
• 1.4 million links
• About 7.000 traffic zones
• 9 trip purposes
• 21 person groups
• auto and truck traffic
• quasi-dynamic assignment(time-of-day volumes)

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Road Network Processing

• Initial German Navteq network consists of ca. 6
  million links
• Removing minor roads
• Generalization removing two-leg node
• Automated, reversible and repeatable process
• Mapping of Navteq attributes to assignment
  relevant attributes
• Adding a reduced European network
• Finally 1.4 million links

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Traffic Zones

• ca. 10,000 residents per zone
• 5 to 12 connectors per zone
• Finally 7,000 zones(refinement to 10,000 ongoing)

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Land Use Data

• National and regional population statistics
• 85,000 market analysis zones
• commercially available
• Inhabitants
• Employment by industry
• Buying power
• Additionally
• schools, universities
• special attractors(fun parks etc.)

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Survey data

• German nationwide travel behavior surveys
• MiD 2002 (Mobility in Germany)
• 62,000 persons
• 183,000 trips
• SrV (2003)
• 34,000 persons

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No. of car trips for different purposes

• trip generation by the EVA-Model (Prof. Lohse,
  University of Dresden)
• simultaneous destination and mode choice

Home - Work 18.1 million
Home - Business 6.5 million
Home - Shopping 12.0 million
Home - Other 20.5 million
Work - Home 13.1 million
Business - Home 8.9 million
Shopping - Home 13.9 million
Other - Home 21.7 million
Other - Other 27.6 million
Total 142.2 million
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Regional distribution of trips
No of trips / km²
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Road Traffic Assignment (24 h, static)
RGap 0.005 after 12 h computing time
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Calibration of the model

• 2000 permanent counting points from BAST
  (Federal institute for roads)
• additional survey points from different sources
• RMSE 23

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Validation Mean Trip distances
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Time-of-Day Trip Demand
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Time-of-day (quasi-dynamic) assignment

• method similar to the Duration based static
  assignment presented by David Pickworth

ADT assignment
peak hour (7 a.m. 8 a.m.)
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Result Time-of-day traffic volumes
(video)
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Validation Comparision of volume time profiles
(video sequence of 100 count locations)
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Application Traffic volumes in Germany 2020

• ACATECH forecast 2020
• Mileage (private cars)
• 20 (30 on highways)
• Mileage (HGV)
• 34 (45 on highways)
• Mileage (all vehicles)
• 21 (33 on highways)
• compared to 2002

increasedecrease
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Application Impact Studies
ExampleEffect of Toll on the A4 (Eisenach)
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Application Accessibility depending on day and
time
Access Mon 10 a.m. green lt 100 h red gt300 h
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Validate Network UK 11/2006
Directional Links 630708 Zones
8105 Connectors 29531
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WWW.PTV.DE
Thank you for your attention !
Contact infomation peter.vortisch_at_ptv.de volker.w
assmuth_at_ptv.de
PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG, 76131 Karlsruhe
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Additional data - Commuter trip tables

• from the German FederalEmployment Agency
• ca. 14000x14000 cells

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Trip Generation Model

• EVA-model developed by Prof. Lohse, University of
  Dresden
• simultaneous destination and mode choice for
  origin-destination groups

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Deviation of counted and calculated daily volumes
RSME 23 (2000 count locations) RGAP 0.005
after 12 hours of computation
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Outlook

• Applications
• GPS navigation (automotive and personal, on-board
  or off-board or hybrid)
• Traffic information services
• Route planning portals
• Logistics and fleet management
• Geomarketing
• Urban, environmental and transportation planning
• Further Development
• Coverage of entire Europe
• Extension to 365 days
• Forecast for events

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Need for hourly volumes on specific days
volume
hour
day