DEMIFER: DEmographic and MIgratory Flows affecting European Regions and cities

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DEMIFER DEmographic and MIgratory Flows
affecting European Regions and cities

• Johanna Roto
• on behalf of the DEMIFER team
• Romanian ESPON Conference,
• Bucharest, 25th November 2010

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Demographic State

• At present gt 1/4 of the NUTS2 regions in the
  ESPON area experiences population decline
• Main demographic changes across Europe
• slowing of population growth
• Ageing of the population
• Migration intra- and extra-Europe migration

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Demographic State

• The size of the working age population declined
  in 25 of all NUTS2 regions in 2000-2007
• in 50 regions the working age population has
  increased by gt 1 / year
• Big cities attract labour migrants

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Regional differentiation

• Therefore there is not one unambiguous effect of
  migration and demography on the competitiveness
  of European regions and thus
• Policy strategies
• Different types of regions face different
  challenges -gt Policies stimulating i.e. mobility
  may have different impacts on different types of
  regions
• Different challenges ask for different mix of
  policies
• Bundles of policies -gt need for cross-sectoral
  thinking
• Case studies
• Case i.e. ROMANIAN MACROREGION - North-East and
  South-East Regions

TYPOLOGY OF REGIONS
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Typology of the Demographic Status in 2005

• Based on share of both young adults and elder
  population, natural population change and net
  migration rate.
• Retaining favourable trends
• 'Euro Standard'
• 'Family Potentials types'
• Dealing with population decline
• 'Challenge of Labour Force'
• 'Challenge of Decline'
• Challenging disparities
• 'Challenge of Ageing'
• 'Young Potentials
• Overseas

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Type 2 5 ? population decline lagging behind

• Characteristics
• Below average GDP level, share of migrants,
  share of highly educated, labour force
  participation
• Above average GDP growth, unemployment
• Policy options for regions dealing with
  population decline
• Making this regions attractive places to live and
  work
• Boost natural population growth, attract
  immigrants and increase opportunities for the
  labour force.

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Projections

• Impact of migration on population change and to
  labour force
• Three reference scenarios
• Status quo projection - the base period rates and
  flows are held constant until 2050
• No migration projection - the base period rates
  and flows are held constant until 2050 but all
  migration rates and flows are set to zero (This
  gives a natural increase only projection)
• Free movement within Europe but no extra-Europe
  migration - the base period rates and flows are
  held constant until 2050 but all extra-Europe
  migration rates and flows are set to zero

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The impact of migration on population change

• Under the Status Quo scenario the population
  declines by 40 million over the 45 years.
• Over 75 of the regions are gainers of migration,
  and in 1/4 of the regions the 2050 population
  size will be 30 higher.
• Without changes in demographic and migratory
  flows, 1/3 of the regions will face considerable
  population decline (gt 20 by 2050).

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Future trends in the labour force

• The age pattern of female labour force
  participation differs considerably
• Regional disparities in activity rates depend on
  economic developments
• If the rates would not change, the size of the
  labour force in the ESPON area will decline by
  17 until 2050

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Policy scenarios

• Population scenarios are important devices for
  thinking about alternative futures, taking into
  account both the mutual relationship between
  demography economy and the linkages between
  economic social policies and demographic
  migratory developments
• Policy scenario implications for
• Mortality
• Fertility
• Migration
• Population ageing remains the most important
  demographic challenge in all scenarios

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Policy scenarios
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The bottom of the European league Romania
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Population Change in 2005-2050 - Scenarios

• GSE Large decreases in mortality, large
  increases in fertility. Migration levels and
  regional inequalities increase significantly.
• EME sustainable economic growth and strong
  competitive goals. Less favorable developments in
  mortality and fertility, large increases in
  migration
• LSE relatively small decreases in mortality,
  constant fertility patterns and declining
  migration levels.
• CME low economic growth, environmental
  challenges are not met, and strong competitive
  goals. Decreasing mortality fertility, constant
  migration levels

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Labour Force Change in 2005-2050 - Scenarios

• The growth of the labour force does not just
  depend on the size of the working age population
  but also on the level of labour force
  participation rates
• GSE and EME high economic growth will lead to an
  increasing trend in labour force participation
  rates.
• LSE the poor economic and environmental
  developments lead to falling activity rates
  everywhere
• CME activity rates are falling due to a
  sustained economic downturn. Disparities are
  growing
• In the future a lot of regions will be struck by
  a shrinking labour force. The LSE scenario
  sketches the most dramatic setback. Least
  dramatic is the setback in the EME.

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Some conclusion

• We believe policy and demography are linked.
• Different policy bundles will influence the
  direction of change in future population of
  Europe, its countries and regions.
• If the status quo holds for the next forty years,
  Europes population will decline and age .
• If successful policies, Europes population could
  grow by 20.
• If policies are not so successful, Europes
  population will hover around 500 million.
• No matter what scenario comes to fruition, life
  expectancies will increase substantially and the
  populations of European regions will age
  dramatically.
• Many regions will lose population through
  out-migration but the net welfare of todays
  population will be improved

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Policy Bundles/Combinations - Migration

• Immigration
• May be an answer in many regions and help narrow
  the gap between Eastern/Southern regions and
  Northern /Central Europe. But these policies must
  be complemented by policies to help the
  integration of newcomers (language, skills).
• Inter-regional migration
• Policies aimed at increasing mobility between
  European regions may reduce cohesion, not
  increase it. Thus policies aimed to stimulate
  migration are only effective as part of policy
  bundles to improve living condition in poor
  regions (jobs, housing, schools).
• Extra-European migration
• Immigration policies to facilitate economic
  migration must be coupled with successful
  integration policies to attract higher skilled
  migrants

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Policy Bundles/Combinations - Labour Markets and
economy

• Increasing number of persons and years on labour
  market
• Policies aimed at increasing the age of
  retirement should be combined with policies
  stimulating healthy behaviour
• Raising labour force participation results in
  decreasing disparities only if the labour market
  performs well. Thus policies to reduce gender
  equalities and improve work/child care balance
  and integration of immigrants are needed for
  this.
• Economic growth/labour supply
• Growth in labour productivity can be raised by
  technology, capacity building and investments in
  education and training, but to be effective these
  measures need to be complemented by measures to
  compensate the effects of ageing

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In conclusion

• Policies aimed at affecting demographic and
  migratory flows should not be considered in
  isolation from other policies, such as housing,
  labour market, integration of migrants,
  education, innovation and environmental quality

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Thank You!

• The DEMIFER project team
• NIDI (The Hague, Netherlands) Lead Partner,
  state of the art
• Joop de Beer, Nicole van der Gaag, Rob van der
  Erf, Peter Ekamper
• UNIVIE (Vienna, Austria) Demographical typology
• Heinz Fassmann, Ramon Bauer
• IOM/CEFMR (Warsaw, Poland) Multipoles
  Projection
• Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska
• Nordregio (Stockholm, Sweden) Policy
  Dissemination
• Daniel Rauhut, Johanna Roto, Lisa van Well
• University of Leeds (Leeds, United Kingdom)
  Scenarios population change
• Phil Rees, Peter Boden, Adam Dennett, John
  Stillwell
• PBL (The Hague, Netherlands) Scenarios labour
  force change
• Andries de Jong, Mark ter Veer
• CNR (Rome, Italy) Case studies
• Frank Heins, Corrado Bonafazi, Giuseppe Gesano