United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies

1
Regional Trade Agreements in AsiaandThe
Multilateral Trade System

• Dr. Brigid Gavin
• United Nations University
• Comparative Regional Integration Studies

2
Outline of Presentation

• New Regionalism in Asia
• Assessing the Impact of RTAs
• WTO Rules on RTAs
• Implications for the MTS
• Conclusions

3
New Regionalism in Asia

• New trend since 1990s
• ASEAN FTA in 1992
• Goal Economic Community 2020
• ASEAN 3 Framework Agreements with China, Japan
  and South Korea
• East Asia 16 FTAs in exisxtence and 22 under
  negotiation

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2 New Aspects

• New Direction
• Traditional strong support for WTO
• From multilateralism to regionalism?
• New Trade Issues
• Slow progress at WTO level
• RTAs advance on new issues

5
How to assess RTAs?

• Policy makers Impact assessment?
• Traditional approach to tariffs
• Trade creation vs. trade diversion
• Recent approach to rule-making
• rules for new trade issues?
• Coherence or fragmentation for global trade?

6
WTO rules for RTAs

• RTAs recognised since 1947
• WTO rules not clear and precise
• New Committee on RTAs 1996
• No progress made on systemic rules
• Current Situation each RTA judged on inidvidual
  basis

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Assessing FTAs in Asia

• Manufacturing
• East Asia has already low MFN tariffs
• Intensive trade in Factory Asia
• FTAs will contribute few benefits
• Risk rules of origin will increase costs
• Need for pan-Asian system of cumulation

8
Agriculture

• Agricultural trade relatively small
• Currently sensitive sector
• Collapse of Doha Round
• Changing patterns of production
• China may become major importer
• Future potential for regional trade

9
Services

• Current FTAs not beyond GATS
• Services growing faster than goods
• East Asian countries major exporters
• 2 models of liberalisation GATS and NAFTA
• Implications for financial services?

10
Conclusions

• Too early to say whether building blocks or
  stumbling blocks
• Benefits faster liberalisation as MTS
  negotiations are stalled
• Risks rules of origin and different regulatory
  models in services

11
Thank you

• bgavin_at_cris.unu.edu