THE NEW ECONOMIC AGENDA

1
The Post-Cold War Era And the Global War on
Terror
2
THE PROBLEM

• How to conceptualize the connection between the
  global arena and U.S.-Latin American relations in
  the wake of the Cold War? And then 9/11?
• Widespread view little if any connection
• My contention the connection exists but is
  complex and contradictory

3
READINGS

• Smith, Talons, chs. 9-11
• DFC, Contemporary, chs. 1, 3

4
After the Cold War The Global Arena

• Collapse of the Soviet Union
• U.S. military primacy the unipolar moment
• The End of History?
• Transnationalization and non-state actors
• Process of globalization
• Shift from geo-politics to geo-economics
• Economic multipolarity Europe, Japan, others?

5
BUSH AND THE WAR ON TERROR

• PHASE 1 BEFORE 9/11
• High level of presidential interest
• Relationship with Mexico
• (and Vicente Fox)
• Near-agreement on immigration reform (?)
• Support for FTAA
• Administrative team
• Isolation of Cuba
• PHASE 2 AFTER 9/11
• Change in regional priorities
• Unilateralist impulses
• End of wholesale immigration reform

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RESPONSES FROM LATIN AMERICA

• Broad sympathy scores of own citizens
• Occasional satisfaction
• OAS support for action as appropriate
• Appeals for proportionality
• Fidel Castro against terrorism and against war
• Preferred option the sidelines
• Entanglements at the UN

8
GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORTHE RULES OF THE GAME

• Nations can respond however they chooseincluding
  the use of indiscriminate force.
• Preventive action is appropriate and acceptable.
• There is no need to adhere to international
  treaties or conventions.
• Alliances are formed around one central issuethe
  anti-terror campaign under U.S. leadership.
  Support is black-white. Democracy and human
  rights are secondary issues.
• Spectator nations must tread cautiously.

9
U.S. LOSS OF SOFT POWER
10
U.S. PRESTIGE IN LATIN AMERICA
11
CHANGING VIEWS OF U.S.

• Distaste for Abu Ghraib, Haditha, collateral
  damage and loss of life
• Solidarity with innocent civilians, hidden
  admiration for Osama bin Laden
• Rejection of American society, not just U.S.
  foreign policy
• Resentment of unilateral approach
• Distrust of democratic crusade

12
TWO-LEVEL GAMES

• Geo-economic game new geopolitical game,
  superimposed and simultaneous
• Geopolitics gt geo-economics if necessary
• Low priority for region
• Benefits of inattention (benign neglect?)
• National preferences which game to play?
• Examples
• FTAs on basis of geopolitics
• Reluctance on immigration reform
• Allies in wars on drugs
• Contradictions and trade-offs

13
AND BARACK OBAMA?

• Redefinition of war against terror
• Afghanistan gt Iraq
• Al Qaeda ? Taliban
• Rules of game more subtly applied
• ISIS/Islamic State
• Re Latin America, changes in rhetoric and
  emphasis rather than substance
• Immigration
• Drugs and drug trafficking
• FTAs
• Lingering effects