The Future of Transportation

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The Future of Transportation

• Fred Abousleman
• Executive Director
• National Association of Regional Councils

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Thank you

• Thanks to Rural Arizona Partners
• Rural Transportation Advocacy Council
• Yuma MPO
• Western Arizona COG
• Sponsors/Speakers and Friends

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The future?

• Hard to predict next year
• Especially in transportation funding and finance
• We can however assume a few things

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The future?

• Assumptions based on trends
• Double/triple population
• Declining condition of infrastructure
• Less and less gross percentage of economy spent
  on infrastructure
• Population densification
• Older population
• More diverse population
• Congestion of roads, rail, ports, airspace
  because of
• massive, complex, new global trade networks

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Pacific Trade 2000 - 2010
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The future

• Climate and energy concerns
• Drastically changed climate
• Less oil need for alternative fuels
• fixing for technology
• Clean engines
• Affordable high speed rail
• Low impact aviation
• Smart cars and highways

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The future

• Fixes?
• Multi-modal system
• High speed rail (freight and passenger?)
• Smart highways and smarter cars
• On-demand and smart transit systems
• Aviation congestion technology
• New engines, alloys, fuels
• Acceptance that we have to invest
• And build less, use what we have more efficiently
• Innovative finance
• RIIZs
• Smart parking, smart EMS, smart everything

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Current State of the Nation

• US economic conditions is hitting everything
  federal, state and local budgets are under
  constraints and cuts.
• ASCE has given our nation's public infrastructure
  a D, estimating that it will cost 2.5T over the
  next five years just to repair current
  infrastructure
• More than 72,000 miles of municipal water and
  sewer pipe are more than 80 years old,
  threatening the public health and economies of
  communities large and small
• Japan, China, India, and the EU are investing
  much more in infrastructure

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The Nation

• The U.S. spends less than 1 of GDP on
  infrastructure
• China spends 9
• India spends 3.5
• Federal infrastructure spending accounted for 10
  or more of the budget from 1959 -1966
• TODAY, federal spending on infrastructure is
  approx. 3 of total federal budget
• States and localities account for around 75 of
  total infrastructure spending

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Authorization

• SAFETEA-LU extended through 3/31/2012
• FAA extended through 1/31/12
• Chair Mica (R-FL) vowed no more extensions
• Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) promised to
  move forward with Senate floor action in early
  2012
• House Leadership open to moving transportation
  legislation in 2012
• Some House Members not optimistic

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• Can still transfer funds between accounts
• Future funding reductions
• Time to discuss local impacts of funding
  shortfalls
• Lessons from ARRA (wasnt supposed to supplant a
  LT reauth)
• State level developments
• Budget
• Authority

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• Congress to Cut Discretionary Funding in 2013
• Including transportation
• Increases pressure on states and locals to
  maintain assets
• FY 2013 Budget Cycle Begins Again
• How to Project Funding/Financing Beyond Current
  Extension?
• Election-year Politics
• Changing Administration Officials Signifies
  Different Priorities
• Shortened Calendar
• Greater Marketing of Accomplishments

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Presently
60 of Republicans and Democrats believe the
federal gas tax increases annually. 61 in the
Northeast, 58 in the South, 54 in the Midwest
and 67 in the West. Building Americas Future,
2010
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Bottom Line 67 of Americans do not believe we
are on the right track overall.
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• MAP-21 a 2-year bill with policy changes
• Passed out of the Senate EPW Committee on 12/9/11
• Focuses on key outcomes such as
• reducing fatalities,
• improving bridges,
• fixing roads, and
• reducing congestion
• Several organizations perceive it as an expansion
  of state-level authority

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Differences Between Urbanized Areas of 50-200K in
MAP-21
MPO Type Retained MPOs Decommissioned MPOs Nonmetropolitan Regions
Description Existing MPOs can apply to US DOT to retain MPO status MPOs that either did not apply or did not win MPO status Regions below 200K after MAP-21 enactment
US DOT designation DOT considers them a metropolitan area DOT considers them a nonmetropolitan area DOT considers them a nonmetropolitan area
Level of consultation Cooperation Consultation Consultation
State project selection Cooperation Consultation Consultation
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Rural Consultation Changes in MAP-21
NARC Priorities MAP-21 Changes
Create RPOs where they do not currently exist No change in authority for RPOs
The original draft of MAP-21 increased the level
of consultation for RPOs, but that language
removed by a committee amendment.
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• Transportation Enhancements

Graph provided by Streetsblog
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• Senate Commerce,
• Science and Transportation Committee

• Passed legislation focusing on
• Overall goals of a surface transportation system
• Stand-alone freight program
• including MPOs
• NHTSA
• PMSHA
• Contentious Committee action
• Passed without unanimous support (unusual)

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• Senate Banking,
• Housing and Urban Development Committee

• Addressing the federal transit title of the bill
• Yet to Introduce
• Senate EPW and Banking Committees both share
  jurisdiction over the transportation planning
  titles
• Must be the same language

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• Senate Finance Committee

• Chaired by Sen. Baucus (D-MT)
• Developing ways to pay for the legislation as a
  whole
• Chair Boxer (D-CA) projects the need for 12
  billion over 2-years to fund her portion
• Yet to Introduce

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• House Transportation
• Infrastructure Committee

• Projected 6-year authorization
• Yet to be Introduced
• May reorganize key formula programs
• Emphasizes performance measures and targets for
  all formula programs
• National Highway System (assets)
• Highway Safety Improvement Program (safety)
• Surface Transportation (?)
• CMAQ (?)

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• Differences b/t House and Senate

House Outline Senate MAP 21
6-yr authorization 2-yr authorization
30 cut Funded at current levels
Restructuring and Devolution Restructuring and Devolution
Constrained by House Rules Spend for Job/Economic Growth
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• Role of MPOs and Local Govts

• Many MPOs voluntarily adopting PM systems
• More than safety and asset management
• Including quality of life fuzzy measures
• What will the role of MPOs be in a formula based,
  state DOT system
• MPO policy function
• Need flexibility to address on the ground
  factors
• Politically sensitive topics

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• Role of MPOs and Local Govts

• How do talk about transparency and accountability
  without talking about MPOs and their local
  governments?
• Closest unit of government to the people
• Own majority of infrastructure in U.S.
• Navigate local political barriers to
  infrastructure
• Where do the RPOs play?

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• NARC Transportation Priorities

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• Showcase your activities and successes
• Completed stimulus projects
• Regional collaboration
• Keep Communication Open
• DC AND District staff for Members of Congress
• Engage your local elected officials
• Case studies/examples
• Contact Erika with more information

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• H.R. 3780
• Regional Infrastructure Improvement Zones
  (RIIZs)
• An Innovative
• Infrastructure Financing Funding Tool
• Introduced by
• U.S. Congressman Geoff Davis (R-KY, 4)
• Conceptualized by
• Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of
  Governments (OKI)

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RIIZs are

• A simple change to federal tax code tax
  deduction
• A voluntary public-private partnership for
  investment in infrastructure urban rural
• Infrastructure surface transportation, water,
  wastewater, stormwater
• A part of an approved plan through COG/MPO, local
  governments and community stakeholders
• A possible local match contribution
• A way to leverage private, federal, state, local
  dollars
• A complement to other infrastructure funding
  opportunities and mechanisms

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RIIZs are NOT

• Reliant on lengthy federal authorization/appropria
  tion processes
• A tax credit
• An infringement on or contradictory to local or
  state statutes
• A direct liability of the local governments or
  their officials
• New mandates or federal requirements
• To supplant other funding/financing mechanisms
• Limited to any one category of public
  infrastructure

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Legislative Update

• House bill (H.R. 3780) introduced by Rep. Davis
  (R-KY, 4) on 1/18/12
• Looking for Congressional Co-sponsors
• Building Support
• Educating on Infrastructure Needs