Land Use Change and the

1
Land Use Change and the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
in Asia
29th January - 1st February, 2001 Kobe, Japan
An APN supported workshop with GCTE, LUCC, START,
IDGEC IGBP and IHDP
2
Land Use Change and the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
in Asia
29th January - 1st February, 2001, Kobe, Japan
Workshop Structure
3
Land Use Change and the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
in Asia
29th January - 1st February, 2001 Kobe, Japan
An APN supported workshop with GCTE, LUCC, START,
IDGEC IGBP and IHDP
4
Global Carbon Sources and Sinks
Pep Canadell
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Global CO2 Budgets (Pg/yr)
1980s 1990-95
Atmospheric Increase 3.30.1 2.9 0.1
Emissions (fossil fuel, cement) 5.5 0.3 6.3
0.4
Ocean-Atmosphere Flux -2.0 0.6 -2.4 0.5
Land-Atmosphere Flux -0.2 0.7 -1.0 0.6
Land-Use Change (80s) 1.6 (0.5 to 2.4)
Residual Terrestrial Sink - 1.8 (-3.7 to 0.4)
IPCC, TAR 2001
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Global Carbon Budget - The fate of CO2 Period
1990-1996
7.9 Pg C/yr (6.3 Pg Fossil Fuel) (1.6 Pg Land
Use)
After IPCC, TAR 2001
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- Amospheric constraints of Global C sources and
sinks -
Location of Global C Sources and Sinks CO2
Flask Network and Inverse Modeling
NOAA-CMDL 1999
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Inverse Model Estimates of CO2 Uptake (7 Models)
IPCC, TAR, 2001
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Biological Net C Balance
- 0.7 to - 2.4 Pg C/yr
- 0.0 Pg C/yr
- 0.0 Pg C/yr
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Biological C Sources and Sinks
- 0.7 to - 2.4 Pg C/yr
1.6 Pg C/yr
0.0 Pg C
- 1.6 Pg C/yr
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Global Biological Carbon Sinks
- 0.7 to - 2.4 Pg C/yr
1.6 Pg C/yr
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Inverse Modeling Calculations of C Sources and
Sinks
North America 1.6 PgC/yr
Euroasia 0.5 PgC/yr
Fan et al. 1998
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Inverse Modeling Calculations of Terrestrial
Carbon Sources and Sinks
Pg C/yr
TM2 1985-1995 GlobalView-CO2
Ciais et al 2000
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- Forest Inventories and Land Use Change as
constraints of C Sources and Sinks -
Northern Hemisphere Carbon Sink
Late 80s-Early 90s
Forestry Sector
0.7 to 0.8 Pg C/yr Inverse modeling 0.7 - 2.4
Pg C/y 70 in Temperate Regions Larger sink in
Euroasia than in North America
Goodel et al 2001 (submitted)
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NH-Boreal Forest has a Neutral C Balance
Area burned in the North America Boreal Forest
Region (1940-1998)
Kasischke and Stocks 2000
Photo M. Flannigan, Canada
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Future Trajectory of the Terrestrial Carbon Sink
DGVM Model Intercomparasion
Net Ecosystem Productivity (Pg C/yr)
aCO2 Stabilizes at 800 ppm in year 2100
Cramer et al. 2000
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Current Terrestrial Sink Potential Driving
Mechanisms

• CO2 fertilization
• N fertilization
• Climate change
• Regrowth of previously harvested forests
• Reforestation / Afforestation
• Regrowth of previously disturbed forests
• Fire, wind, insects
• Fire suppression
• Decreased deforestation
• Improved agriculture
• Sediment burial
• Future Terrestrial Carbon Management (e.g.,
  Kyoto, CDMs, etc.)

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Future Dynamics of C Sink Mechanisms
None
Increased Precipitation
Forest Regrowth
CO2 fertilization
Woody Encroachment
N deposition
Kyoto P. Art.3.3
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Current Terrestrial Sources Driving Mechanisms

• Soil Respiration
• due to Climate Warming
• Others of minor
• global significance !?

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Global Emissions from Land Use Change
Total emissions of C deforestation and
fossil-fuel burning
- From 1850 to 1990 -
90 due to deforestation 20 descrease Forest
Area
Difference to 180-200 Pg occurred before 1850
mostly in temperate areas
Houghton et al. 1999, Houghton 1999, Defries et
al. 1999, IPCC-TAR 2001
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Net Annual Flux of Carbon from Changes in Land
Use
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Annual Net Flux of Carbon (Pg)
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
1980 2000
Year
Houghton 1999
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Annual Net Emissions of C (Pg) South and
Southeast Asia
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Annual Net Flux of Carbon (Pg)
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
1980 2000
Year
Houghton and Hackler 1999
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Land Cover Changes Predicted by IMAGE for 2090
relative to that predicted for 1990
Courtesy of Rik Leemans, 1997
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The Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Multi-Technique App
roach
1. Location 2. Causes 3. Trajectories
Canadell et al. 2000
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Land Use Change and the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
in Asia
29th January - 1st February, 2001 Kobe, Japan
An APN supported workshop with GCTE, LUCC, START,
IDGEC IGBP and IHDP
26
Global Crop Cover Change from 1700 to 1992
Fraction of Grid Cell in Croplands
Ramankutty Foley 2000
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Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Uptake and Storage
IGBP 1998 (modified by IC-SEA)
CO2
Plant respiration
Soil and litter respiration
Disturbance
GPP
Short-term carbon uptake NPP 60 Gt/yr
Medium-term carbon storage NEP 10 Gt/yr
Long-term carbon storage NBP 1-2 Gt/yr
Gross Primary Production
Net Primary Production
Net Ecosystem Product.
Net Biome Product.