Forecasting Future Skills Needs in Ireland

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Forecasting Future Skills Needs in Ireland

• Presentation to Ministry of Education
• Ministry of Industry and Commerce
• And Delegation
• Colombia

Dr. Catherine Kavanagh Department of
Economics University College Cork, Ireland and
Former Manager Expert Group on Future Skills
Needs Forfas, Ireland
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Overview

• Background to skills forecasting in Ireland
• Expert Group on Future Skills Needs - today
• Skills forecasting at the economy level and some
  results for Ireland
• Skills forecasting at the sectoral level

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Background

• Irish education system served Ireland well and
  played a critical role in helping to drive
  economic growth Celtic Tiger, skills met by
  qualified workforce, returning emigrants and
  expansion of higher education graduate numbers
• About 1995/96, evident there was shortage of
  skills, especially in some key sectors, (ICT)
• 1997 sees the establishment of the Expert Group
  on Future Skills Needs as part of a Business,
  Education and Training Partnership (BETP)
• It is an independent advisory body appointed by
  government
• Chair of Group is Dr. Danny OHare, Former
  President of DCU
• Key focus partnership approach
• Group comprises representatives from education,
  employees, enterprise, government and State
  agencies

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Background

• Initial objectives of the Group were as follows
• Identify, in a systematic way, the skill needs of
  different sectors and to advise on the actions
  needed to address them
• Develop estimating techniques that will assist in
  anticipating future skill needs and requirements
  of the economy and the associated resource
  requirements
• Advise on the promotion of education and
  continuous training links with business at
  national and local levels
• Consider strategic issues in developing
  partnerships between the business and the
  education and training sectors in meeting the
  skills needs of business (Skillnets arose from
  this)
• Advise on how to improve the awareness of job
  seekers in sectors where there are demands for
  skills, of the qualifications required, and how
  they can be obtained

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The Expert Group on Future Skills
Needs - today

• The Expert Group on Future Skills Needs is the
  central national resource on skills and labour
  supply issues for the enterprise sector
• It is now chaired by a leading entrepreneur and
  business person Ms. Anne Heraty
• The membership consists of representatives from
  education, training, business, employees, state
  agencies and government departments
• Crucially, the Department of Finance is
  represented on the Group, and there is
  international representation (OECD). Also, senior
  members from the two key government departments
  (DES and DETE)

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The Expert Group on
Future Skills Needs - today

• The Objectives now of the Group are as follows
• Advise Government on projected skills
  requirements at national and sectoral levels and
  make recommendations on how best to address these
  needs
• Advise Government on associated priority training
  requirements and the most cost effective ways of
  responding to them
• Advise on any skills requirements that cannot be
  met internally at a given time and so must be met
  through inward migration
• Advise on development on content and delivery
  systems that support excellence in training
  quality elsewhere and on adaptions necessary to
  incorporate such developments into training
  provision in Ireland
• Respond to any request for advice from the
  Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment on
  training programmes that are supported through
  the National Training Fund
• Ensure that recommendations made are adequately
  assessed by the relevant responsible authorities
  and periodically inform members of the EGFSN of
  progress made in the implementation of such
  recommendations.

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The Expert Group on
Future Skills Needs - today

• The Group operates under the auspices of Forfás
  the national policy and advisory board for
  enterprise, trade, science, technology and
  innovation
• The Group reports make recommendations to the
  Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment and
  the Minister for Education and Science
• The work of the Group is supported by a number of
  state agencies and government departments
  including Forfás, FÁS (the national training
  and employment agency), Higher Education
  Authority, Department of Enterprise, Trade and
  Employment, Department of Education and Science,
  Industrial Development Agency and Enterprise
  Ireland

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Map of Institutional Interaction
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EGFSN Development
5th Report Tomorrows Skills Toward a National
Skills Strategy
Output
Merger with NTAC
4th Report
5 Key Reports 34 Reports
SLMRU/National Skills Database Established
Sector Skills Focus
3rd Report
2nd Report
1st Report (ICT Focus)
Established
1997
1998
2000
2007
2001
2003
2004
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National Skills Database circa 2001

• Operated by FÁS the employment and training
  agency on behalf of the EGFSN
• It is the central data gathering and data
  analysis unit for the EGFSN
• Contains the following data
• Demand for skills
• Employment data from CSO, by sector, occupation
  and education
• Notified vacancies from FAS, Irish Times
  (newspapers) and www.irishjobs.ie
• Immigration data (economic) from DETE on work
  permits, work visas, etc.
• Supply of skills
• Education and training data from all
  educational and training providers (HEA for First
  Destination of Graduates report HETAC and FETAC
  for graduation awards, all universities,
  institutes of technology, VECS, private colleges,
  FAS (for training info)
• Job seekers data - FAS

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Summary of Key Points on EGFSN

• Independent body with wide representation
• Well integrated into wider policy system through
  Forfás
• Grounded in evidence base provided by the
  National Skills Database
• Strong link to enterprise development policy
• Underpinned by social and economic theory
• Practical and workable solutions

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Skills Forecasting

• Undertaken at two levels
• Economy wide recent development
• Sector specific will continue to be important
• There is a recognition that we need to understand
  all aspects of the labour/skills market
• Public and Private
• Traded and Non-Traded

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Tomorrows Skills

• Towards a National Skills Strategy in Ireland
  2020

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Tomorrows Skills

• So, what is it?
• This was a major economy wide skills forecasting
  exercise undertaken by the EGFSN over 2005/2006
  which led to the publication of the National
  Skills Strategy in March 2007 first of its kind
  in Ireland
• Sets out clear long-term objectives for Irelands
  education and training requirements to develop
  Ireland as a knowledge-based, innovation-driven,
  participative and inclusive economy with a highly
  skilled workforce by 2020

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The Policy Context
World-class Skills, Education Training
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The Overall Conceptual Framework Used
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HOW?

• Adoption of economic scenario for Ireland to 2020
  based on econometric forecasting model
• Quantitative projections of labour/skills needs
  based on sectoral profile, occupational profile
  and educational profile (DEMAND analysis
  conducted for EGFSN by ESRI))
• Quantitative projections of labour/skills supply
  based on demographic projections, output from
  formal education system, net migration etc.
  based on no policy change scenario (SUPPLY)
• Qualitative projections on types of generic
  skills required in future based on a sample of
  occupations
• The skills gap that would exist based on no
  policy change (DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND AND
  SUPPLY)
• The desired outcome a VISION that will drive
  enterprise development

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Findings the Current Situation

• High percentage of labour force with 3rd level
  qualifications (27)
• High percentage of labour force with lower
  secondary education or below (37 - above OECD
  average of 30)
• Low levels of adult literacy, expected to decline
• Poor participation in ongoing education and
  training (14 relative to EU average of 16.5)
• Skill shortages in a number of sectors
• Strong educational profile of immigrant
  population not being availed of

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Findings Changing Needs of Enterprise

• Shifting sectoral profiles
• Shifting occupational level profile
• Increasing emphasis on generic skills
• Occupational specific skills

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Findings Employment by Sector
Source EGFSN, ESRI
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Findings Change in Absolute and Relative
Employment by Occupation from 2005 to 2020
Source EGFSN, ESRI
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Findings Increasing Emphasis on
Generic Skills

• Basic or fundamental skills such as literacy,
  using numbers, using technology
• People-related skills such as communication,
  interpersonal, team working, customer-service
  skills and
• Conceptual skills such as collecting and
  organising information, problem-solving, planning
  and organising, learning-to-learn skills,
  innovation and creativity, systems thinking

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Within Occupations
Findings Increasing Emphasis on Generic
Skills

• There is likely to be demand for an
• Increasing Breadth of Knowledge
• Increased Share of Knowledge Work / Reduced Share
  of Routine Work
• Rising Qualification and Technical Skill
  Requirements
• Importance of Continuing Learning
• Significance of Regulation
• Skills for Dealing with Others
• Management Level Skills
• Sales and Marketing Skills
• Language Skills
• RD

Enterprise Skills
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Findings Labour Market in 2020

• Labour Market 2020 based on No Policy Change
  Scenario
• 2.4m in labour force
• 1.4m of current workforce still in labour force
  in 2020
• 640,000 extra young people from formal education
• 310,000 shortfall, demand outstrips supply
• Must be met from immigration and increased
  participation
• NOTE Science, engineering, ICT, RD skills
  integral to knowledge-based economy!!

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The Gap

• No policy change scenario, the demand and supply
  analysis in 2020 shows the following
• 5 of the labour force will have no
  formal/primary level qualifications
• 19 will have below upper secondary education
• 29 will have upper secondary education
• 24 will have post-leaving certificates and
  higher certificate (certificate/diploma level)
• 28 will have tertiary education as their highest
  level of education (honours degrees, masters,
  Phds)

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Vision 2020

• The Expert Group proposes a vision of a
  competitive, innovation-driven, knowledge-based,
  participative and inclusive economy with a highly
  skilled labour force by 2020

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Findings Supply and Demand in 2020
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Objective Setting and NFQ

• National Qualifications Framework (NFQ) is an
  agreed framework by which educational
  qualifications are classified
• Classifications based on standards and on
  learning outcomes. Includes recognition of
  previous learning and work experience
• 10 Levels
• 1 and 2 Level 1 and 2 Certificate
• 3 Level 3 Certificate and Junior Certificate
• 4 Leaving Certificate
• 5 Leaving Certificate
• 6 Advanced/Higher Certificate (FETAC or HETAC
• 7 Ordinary Batchelors Degree
• 8 Honours Batchelors Degree or Higher Diploma
• 9 Masters Degree
• 10 Doctoral Degree

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Specific Objectives for 2020

• 48 of the labour force should have
  qualifications at National Framework of
  Qualifications (NFQ) level 6-10 from national
  certificate to Phd
• 45 should have qualifications at NFQ levels 4-5
  awards equivalent to Leaving Certificate
• Remaining 7 are likely to have qualifications at
  NFQ levels 1-3 (below junior certificate, while
  aiming to achieve higher levels

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Achieving the Vision

• Upskilling existing workforce An additional
  500,000 individuals in the workforce need to
  progress by at least one level of educational
  attainment above their current highest level
• Second level completion rate (the leaving
  certificate, level 4 5) retention should reach
  90 by 2020
• Educational Attainment of population Ireland
  should aspire to have 94 of the population aged
  20-24 with upper secondary education (level 4
  5)
• Third level The progression rate to third level
  to increase from 55 to 72 over the period 2020

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Achieving the Vision

• Report also highlights the following
• Integration of immigrants into the education and
  training system at all levels
• Career guidance and mentoring for those at work
• Assistance for individuals and companies in
  identifying their skills needs
• More awareness programmes that highlight the
  benefit of education and training
• Education and training provision needs to be
  flexible and responsive to the needs of employers
  and employees

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Sectoral Skills Forecasting

• EGFSN identifies sectors of strategic importance
  high growth and/or high employment (e.g
  tourism), those in decline, high value added etc.
  Also enterprise can express a particular concern
  for a sector which it wishes the EGFSN to look at
• Research methodology may change depending on
  enterprise sector. A lot depends on how defined
  the sector is and how unique the skills are to
  that sector

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Sectoral Skills Forecasting

• How?
• Sectoral profile is there a sectoral plan?
• Analysis of skills/labour demand
• Analysis of skills/labour supply
• Normally, an international benchmarking element
  looking at how skills are being developed
  elsewhere or what are the emerging skills in
  leading countries in this sector?
• Technology and market trends goes beyond demand
  and supply
• Recommendations in relation to education and
  training systems
• Consultative process/sector expertise helps
  information flows

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Sectoral Studies

• Sectors which the EGFSN has examined include
• High Skilled Needs of the ICT Sector
• The International Digital Media Industry
  Implications for Skills in Ireland
• The Skills Needs of the Medical Devices Sector
• The Skills Needs of the International Financial
  Services Sector
• The Demand and Supply of Skills in the
  Biotechnology Sector
• The Demand and Supply of Skills in the Food
  Processing Sector
• The Demand and Suppply of Skills in the
  Construction Sector

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Horizontal Skills Studies

• Skills Needs of the Irish Economy The Role of
  Migration
• Careers and Labour Market Information
• SME Management Development Skills
• The Demand and Supply of Language Skills
• The Supply and Demand for Researchers and
  Research Personnel
• National Skills Bulletin (Annual)
• Education and Training Supply Bulletin (Annual)

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Skills Bulletin Reports

• Objectives
• To provide the most comprehensive source of info
  on education outputs in Ireland
• Raise awareness of current and possible skills
  shortages
• Share information with all interested parties

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Other Studies that Inform Skills
Forecasting

• Other studies that complement the work of the
  Expert Skills Group include
• FAS Quarterly Labour Market Commentary
  analyses data from CSOs Quarterly National
  Household Survey once released
• FAS Irish Labour Market Review annual review
  of labour market with some projections for
  employment, unemployment, and key economic
  indicators in the short term

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For more information

• Visit the following
• www.skillsireland.ie
• www.skillsstrategy.ie
• www.forfas.ie
• www.fas.ie