INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CHALLENGES: TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2010-2019

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INDONESIA ELECTRICITYSUPPLY
CHALLENGESTEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN
2010-2019
PT PLN (PERSERO)
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ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019

• The electricity demand growth estimated average
  9.3 per year (Jawa-Bali 8.97, West Indonesia
  10.2 and East Indonesia 10.6)
• The electricity sales from year 2010 onwards is
  forecasted by assuming an average economic growth
  of 6.2 and an average population growth of
  1.17.
• It is anticipated that the sales for those years
  would not be constrained, as all of the power
  plants of the fast track program would have been
  already in operation.
• Electrification ratio increase from 65 in 2009
  to 91 by the end of 2019.
• DSM program to shave and shift peak load has not
  been taken into account.

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DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019
JAVA-BALI SYSTEM
Electricity Demand growth average 9.3/year
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INDONESIA ELECTRICITY RATIO 2009 sekita63
NAD 72,7
Sumut 75,5
Kaltim 53,9
Kalselteng 56,3
Riau Kepri 44,7
Sulutenggo 51,2
Kalbar 49,5
Sumbar 67,6
Sulteng 47,64
Babel 48,4
Sulselrabar 55,8
SumselJambiBengkulu 50,3
Maluku 53,5
Bali 76,2
Lampung 47,1
JabarBanten 64,95
Jatim 61,6
JatengYogya 70,2
NTT 21,7
NTB 29,9
Papua Irjabar 27,8
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POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING

• Some ageing and inefficient oil-fired power
  plants are retired as soon as more effcient
  plants are available.
• Generation expansion planning is made on
  least-cost principle, by looking for generation
  configuration that have minimum system costs.
• However, development of renewables (especially
  geothermal and some hydro) is encouraged, by
  treating these as fixed plants prior to
  optimisation process.
• Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of lt1 day/year is
  used as reliability criteria during planning
  process.
• The reserve margin is restricted within 35-50
  range based on net dependable capacity. Rental
  power plants and excess power are not taken into
  account.

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POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING

1. Gas supply is assumed to be available for Java
   Bali system, yet for outside Java Bali system
   gas-fired power plants are considered only if
   there is a definite gas supply. LNG receiving
   terminal is also considered as one option of gas
   supply.
2. Development of small scale coal-fired powerplants
   is used to substitute oil-fired powerplants for
   smaller systems, if there is no local primary
   energy resource available.
3. Coal-fired power plants with unit size of 1,000
   MW supercritical would be introduced into the
   Java-Bali system.
4. PLN expects a bigger role from private sector in
   IPP development.

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GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN
Additional Capacity 53,219MW up to 2019 PLN
Generation 32,636MW and IPP 20,583MW, Average
4800MW/year
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Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Jawa)

• PLTU 1 Jateng-Rembang, 2x315MW, Cons.
  ZelanTronohPriamanaya, Contract Signed
  21March2007
• PLTU 2 Banten-Labuan, 2x300MW, Cons.
  ChengdaTruba Jurong, Contract Signed 21March2007
• PLTU 1 Jabar-Indramayu, 3x330MW, Cons.
  SinomachCNEECPT Penta Adi Samudra, Contract
  Signed 21March2007
• 4. PLTU 2 Jatim-Paiton, 1x660MW, Cons. Harbin
  PEMitra SelarasHutama Energi, Contract Signed
  7August2007
• 5. PLTU 1 Banten-Suralaya, 1x625MW, Cons.
  CNTICRekayasa Industri, Contract Signed
  12March2007
• 6. PLTU 1 Jatim-Pacitan 2x315MW, Cons. Dongfang
  ElectricDalle Energy, Contract Signed 7Augus2007
• 7. PLTU 2 Jabar-Pelabuhan Ratu, 3x350MW, Cons.
  Shanghai ElectricMaxima Infrastructure, Contract
  Signed 7August2007
• 8. PLTU 3 Banten-Teluk Naga, 3x315MW, Cons.
  Dongfang ElectricDalle Energy, Contract Signed
  7August2007
• 9. PLTU 3 Jatim-Tg. Awar Awar, 2x350MW,
  SinomachCNEECPenta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed
  25April2008
• 10. PLTU 2 Jateng-Adipala Cilacap, 1x660MW,
  Contract 22December2008, COD 2012

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Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)

• PLTU 2 Sumut-Pangkalan Susu, 2x220MW, Cons.
  GuangdongNintecBagus Karya
• PLTU Kepri-Tg. Balai Karimun, 2x7MW, Cons.
  ShangdongRekadaya Elektrika
• PLTU NAD-Meulaboh, 2x110MW, Synohydro
• PLTU 1 Riau-Bengkalis, 2x10MW, Cons. Guandong
  MachineryModacoKelsriAngkasa Buana
• 5. PLTU 2 Riau-Selat Panjang, 2x7MW, Bouwstead
  Maxitherm
• 6. PLTU Sumbar-Teluk Sirih, 2x212MW, Cons.
  CNTICRekayasa Industri
• PLTU Lampung-Tarahan Baru, 2x100MW, Jiangxi
  Electric Power Design InstituteAdhi Karya
• 8. PLTU 3 Babel-Bangka Baru, 2x30MW, Cons.
  Truba,China Shanghai Group
• 9. PLTU 4 Babel-Belitung 2x16,5MW, Cons. Shandong
  MachineryPoeser Indonesia
• 10. PLTU 1 Kalbar-Parit Baru, 2x50MW, Cons. Bumi
  Rama NusantaraAltons
• 11. PLTU 2 Kalbar-Bengkayang, 2x27,5MW, Cons.
  Guangdong MachineryWijaya Karya
• PLTU Kalsel-Asam Asam, 2x65MW, Cons.
  ChengdaWijaya Karya
• 13. PLTU 1 Kalteng, Pulang Pisau, 2x60MW
• 14. PLTU 1 NTB-Bima, 2x10MW, GuandongModaco
  EnersysAngkasa Buana Cipta
• 15. PLTU 2 NTB-Lombok,2x25MW, Barata Indonesia
• 16. PLTU 1 NTT-Ende 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong
  MachineryRekadaya Elektrika

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Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)
18. PLTU Gorontalo, 2x25MW, Meta Epsi 19. PLTU 2
Sulut-Amurang, 2x25MW, Wijaya Karya 20. PLTU
Sultra-Kendari, 2x10MW, Cons. Shangdong
MachineryRekadaya Elektrika 21. PLTU
Sulsel-Barru, 2x50MW, Cons. Hubei Hongyuan
EngineeringBagus Karya 22. PLTU Maluku
Utara-Tidore, 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong
MachineryRekadaya Elektrika 23. PLTU 3
Papua-Jayapura, 2x10MW, Cons. Modern Widya
TechnicalBoustead Maxitherm
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Fast Track Program Phase 2

• More geothermal projects will be developed, and
  large coal fired power plant in Java to be
  excluded from Fast Track Program Phase 2. In
  addition to that, Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage
  Project will be included in the program.
• The composition of project will consist of
  geothermal 48, hydro 12, gas combined cycle
  14 and coal fired outside Java-Bali 26.
• The capacity of the projects will be as follows
• Java-Bali geothermal 2,137 MW, hydro 1,000 MW
  and gas combined cycle 1,200 MW.
• Outside Java-Bali coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 174
  MW, geothermal 2,596 MW, and gas combined cycle
  240 MW.
• Total Indonesia coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 1,174
  MW, geothermal 4,733 MW and gas combined cycle
  1,440 MW, totalling 9,963 MW.

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Fast Track Program Phase 2

• The second phase of fast track program will
  consist of 3,649 MW of PLNs project and 6,314 MW
  of IPP project.
• The 1,200 MW gas combined cycle in Java-Bali is
  Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 project. This project is
  very strategic in that it will meet the future
  demand by the year 2011-2012, however the
  feasibility of the project will subject to gas
  supply availability.
• The 1,000 MW hydro project in Java-Bali is Upper
  Cisokan Pumped Storage. This project is very
  strategic as it will serve as peaking unit to
  replace the role of oil fired plants.
• Most geothermal projects will be IPP. To ensure
  the success of the projects within the time frame
  of the program (up to 2014), geothermal
  developers must take immediate project
  preparation and PLN must make immediate
  geothermal IPP procurement.

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Summary of Fast Track Program Phase 2
REGION Steam Coal PP (MW) Combined Cycle PP (MW) Geo PP (MW) Hydro PP (MW) Total (MW)
JAVA-BALI - 1.200 2.137 1.000 4.337
OUTSIDE JAVA-BALI 2.616 240 2.596 174 5.626
TOTAL 2.616 (26) 1.440 (14) 4.733 (48) 1.174 (12) 9.963 (100)
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Map of Fast Track Program Phase 2

• SUMATERA
• PLTA 174 MW
• PLTP 2285 MW
• PLTU 1100 MW
• PLTGU 120 MW

• KALIMANTAN
• PLTU 840 MW
• PLTGU 120 MW

• SULAWESI
• PLTP 195 MW
• PLTU 418 MW

• MALUKU
• PLTP 40 MW
• PLTU 44 MW

• PAPUA
• PLTU 114 MW

• NTT
• PLTP 46 MW
• PLTU 30 MW

• TOTAL
• PLTA 1174 MW
• PLTP 4733 MW
• PLTU 2616 MW
• PLTGU 1440 MW
• TOTAL 9963 MW

• JAMALI
• PLTP 2.137 MW
• PLTU 0 MW
• PLTGU 1.200 MW
• PLTA 1.000 MW

• NTB
• PLTP 30 MW
• PLTU 70 MW

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Investment of Fast Track Program Phase 2
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TRANSMISSION EXPANSION PLANNINGJAVA-BALI
2008-2018
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Project Name COD Financing Plan
Transmisi 275 kV Sumatera (Payakumbuh Padangsidempuan) 2012 Loan JICA
Transmisi 275 kV Rengat Garuda Sakti (220 km) 2014 unallocated
Transmisi Sumatera-Jawa 500 kV HVDC 2016 USD 2,3 milyar, Loan JICA
Jawa-Bali Crossing 500 kV HVAC 2015 USD 328 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB
Interkoneksi Kalbar-Serawak 275 kV HVAC 2012 USD 101 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB
Interkoneksi Sumatera-Malaysia 250 kV HVDC 2015 USD 353 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB/JICA
Perkuatan Transmisi Sistem Jakarta dan Bali 2011 2012 USD 420 juta, KE
Perkuatan Transmisi Kota-Kota Besar di Jawa 2012 USD 250 juta, IBRD
Transmisi 500 kV AC Tj Jati - Ungaran Pemalang Mandirancan Indramayu (500 km) 2015 USD 300 juta, unallocated
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DISTRIBUTION EXPANSION PLAN

• ADDIONAL DISTRIBUTION FACILITY UP TO 2019
• MV 181,000KMS ? 16,500 KMS/YEAR
• LV 249,500KMS ? 22,700 KMS/YEAR
• DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER 35,000 MVA ?
  3,200 MVA/YEAR
• ADDITIONAL COSTUMER 27,4 MILION? 2,5
  MIO/YEAR

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PLN INVESTMENT
INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 USD 64,7
BILLION, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE
EXTENSION/REFURBISHMENT EXISTING GENERATION,
SPARE IBT
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PLN IPP INVESTMENT
INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 USD 83,0
BILLION OR USD 7,6 BILLION PER YEAR, INCLUDING
INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBIS MENT
EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT
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PLN PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM
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IPP PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM
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SUMMARY

• For the next 10 years
• The average electricity demand would grow at
  9.3/year (Jawa-Bali 8.97, West Indonesia 10.2
  and East Indonesia 10.6)
• Total additional generation capacity for
  Indonesia is 53,219 MW, consists of 32,636 MW of
  PLN projects and 20,583 MW of IPP projects
• Development of renewable energy, especially
  geothermal, is encouraged, by additional 5,006 MW
  by 2018
• Total additional transmission network would reach
  44,257 kms for all voltage levels, and total
  additional of transformers would be 103,000 MVA
  for all voltage levels.
• Total additional distribution network is 175,013
  kms for MV, 222,018 kms for LV, 30,877 MVA for
  distribution transformers and 25 million new
  customer connections.

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SUMMARY

• Total investment needed for Gen Trans Dis is
  US 64,69 billion (PLN only) or US 82,99 billion
  (PLNIPP).
• Investment needed for PLN power plant projects
  alone is US 38,581 billion, and for IPP projects
  is US 18,31 billion.

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Some strategic generation projects
SUMMARY

• CCGT Muara Tawar Add-on 2, 3, 4, 1,200 MW,
  commissioned in 2011-2012.
• Fast Track Generation Project 10,000 MW Phase 2
  with total capacity of 11,355 MW year 2011-2014
  (this figure might change due to recent
  governments will to promote more geothernal).
• Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage of 4x250 MW in 2014
  (WB)
• CFPP Jawa Tengah Infrastruktur (IFC) 2x1,000 MW
  in 2014-2015.
• CFPP mine mouth in Sumatera 6x600 MW in 2016-2017
  (transferred to Java Bali system)
• CCGT LNG Bojanegara 3x750 MW in 2015-2017.

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Some strategic transmission projects
SUMMARY

• HVDC transmission between Sumatera and Java in
  2016.
• Sub-sea 150 kV Java-Bali circuit 3,4, 2010
• Batam Bintan interconnected system using
  sub-sea 150 kV, 2010
• 275 kV transmission connecting West Kalimantan
  Serawak in 2011
• 500 kV Java-Bali Crossing from Paiton to
  Kapal/near Denpasar in 2015

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PT PLN (PERSERO)
Thank You
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