MILITARY DECISION MAKING PROCESS

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MILITARYDECISIONMAKINGPROCESS
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Military Decision Making Process
MISSION RECEIVED
CDR ACTIONS
STAFF ACTIONS
INFO TO CDR
INFO TO STAFF
MSN ANALYSIS RESTATED MSN CDRS GUIDANCE
MISSION ANALYSIS PROPOSED RESTATED MSN
CDRS EST
STAFF EST
COA DEVELOPMENT/ ANALYSIS
COA DEVELOPMENT
COA ANALYSIS, COMPARISON, RECOMMENDATION
COA COMPARISON AND DECISION
PREP PLAN/ ORDER/FRAGO
PLAN/ORDER/ FRAGO APPROVAL
ISSUE PLAN/ ORDER/FRAGO
MSN RECD BY SUB UNITS
EXECUTION
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Military Decision Making Process
RECEIPT OF MISSION
WARNING ORDER
MISSION ANALYSIS
WARNING ORDER

COA DEVELOPMENT
COA ANALYSIS
COA COMPARISON
COA APPROVAL
WARNING ORDER
ORDERS PRODUCTION

REHEARSAL
EXECUTION ASSESSMENT
FM 101-5 pg 5-2
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Military Decision Making Process
WARNING ORDER __ References 1. SITUATION
a. Enemy forces. b. Friendly forces.
(1) Mission (2)
Commanders Intent c. Attachments and
detachments. 2. MISSION 3. EXECUTION
Intent (when available). a. Concept of
operation (when available). Assembly area
locations (If applicable, when available).
b. Tasks to maneuver units (when available).
(1) Reconnaissance.
(2) Surveillance (2)
Security c. Tasks to combat support
units (when available). d.
Coordinating instructions. (1)
Earliest movement time and degree of notice.
(2) Orders group meeting
(attendees, location, and time) (when
applicable). 4. SERVICE SUPPORT a.
Special equipment. b.
Transportation. 5. COMMAND AND
SIGNAL ACKNOWLEDGE


NAME (Commanders last name)


RANK (Commanders rank) OFFICIAL ANNEXES DI
STRIBUTION
Copy __ of __ Copies Issuing headquarters Place
of issue Date-time group of signature Message
reference no.
FM 101-5 pgs H-27/28
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Military Decision Making Process 7 Steps

• Receipt of mission
• Mission analysis
• Course of action development
• Course of action analysis
• Course of action comparison
• Course of action approval
• Orders production

FM 101-5 pg 5-3
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Military Decision Making Process Step 1
Output
Input
Receipt of Mission
Mission of Higher
Cdrs Initial Guidance
- Initial Assessment - Update Staff Estimates -
Prepare for Mission Analysis
Warning Order 1
FM 101-5 pgs 5-3, 5-4
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Military Decision Making Process Step 2
Output
Input
Initial IPB Products
Mission
Mission Analysis
Restated Mission
Staff Estimates
- Analysis of Higher Msn/Intent - Identify
Specified / Implied Tasks / Essential Tasks
- Review Task Org / Assets -
Determine Restrictions / Constraints - Assess
Risk - Identify Critical Facts / Assumptions
Cdrs Intent / Guidance
Facts Assumptions
Warning Order 2
Staff Products
Battlefield Framework
Preliminary Movement
FM 102-5 pgs 5-4, 5-5
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Definition of Commanders Intent
The commanders intent is a clear, concise
statement of what the force must do to succeed
with respect to the enemy and the terrain, and
the desired end state. It provides the link
between the mission and the concept of operations
by stating the key tasks that, along with the
mission, are the basis for subordinates to
exercise initiative when unanticipated
opportunities arise or when the original concept
of operations no longer applies. Intent is
normally expressed in four or five sentences and
is mandatory for all orders. The mission and the
commanders intent must be understood two
echelons down.






FM 101-5 pg 5-9
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Intent Statement

• Commanders intent statement should state the
  following
• Key tasks
• End state

FM 101-5 pg 5-9
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Key Tasks For Commanders Intent

• Tasks that must be performed, or conditions that
  must be met, to achieve stated purpose of the
  operation
• Not tied to specific course of action, but
  fundamental to the forces success
• Subordinates use these tasks to keep their
  efforts supporting the commanders intent
• Examples
• Tempo
• Duration
• Terrain that must be controlled
• Effect on the enemy

FM 101-5 pg 5-9
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Example Commanders Intent
Mission At 112130JUL97, 1 CAV DIV attacks in zone
to PL VIRGINIA to defeat the 61 BDE (MTZD) and
establish a covering force NLT 120600JUL97 from
PL ALABAMA to PL MAINE to protect CORPS
assembly areas. On order, 1 CAV DIV attacks in
zone to PL FLORIDA to defeat the remaining enemy
forces. On order, defends in sector from PL
ILLINOIS to PL VIRGINIA to defeat enemy attacks
across the international border. Commander's
Intent I want to rapidly defeat the remaining
enemy forces in zone to PL ALABAMA to establish a
covering force. The covering force will protect
the division until we are prepared for combat and
facilitate the forward passage of the heavy
brigades, allowing the heavy brigades to rapidly
defeat enemy forces in zone to PL FLORIDA, and
posture the division to destroy any enemy
counterattacks across the international border.
End state is the international border restored
and the division defending in sector along PL
FLORIDA prepared to defeat any enemy attacks
across the international border.
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Military Decision Making Process

• 13 Elements of commanders guidance
• Specify COAs, friendly enemy, and the priority
  for addressing them
• The CCIR
• Reconnaissance guidance
• Risk guidance
• Deception guidance
• Fire support guidance
• Mobility countermobility guidance
• Security measures to be implemented
• Additional specific priorities for CS and CSS
• Other information the Cdr wants the staff to
  consider
• The time plan
• Type of order to issue
• Type of rehearsal to conduct

FM 101-5 pg 5-10
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Commanders Critical Information
Requirements(CCIR)

• Supports the commanders battlefield
  visualization
• Identifies critical decisions
• Assists in determining or validating COAs
• Helps filter information available to the
  commander
• Focuses the efforts of subordinates and staff
• Assists in the allocation of resources
• Assists staff officers in making recommendations
• 10 or less items of information
• Directly affects the success or failure of the
  mission

FM 101-5 pg 5-7
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Commanders Critical Information
Requirements(CCIR)

• PIR - Information about the enemy.
  Example Are
  the 14 TMD and 13 ID DAGs located vicinity NAI 17
  (CH 4535) and NAI 14 (CH3736) respectively?
  LTIOV 252300JUL97
• EEFI - Information needed to protect friendly
  forces from the enemys information-gathering
  systems.
  Example Location of brigade
  command posts.
• FFIR - Information about the capabilities of own
  or adjacent units.
  Example First
  contact with enemy.
• Combat power below
  designated level.

FM 101-5 pg 5-8
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NCOs In The Military Decision Making Process
PLANNING PROCESS
COMMANDER
STAFF OFFICERS
STAFF NCOs
RTOs/CLERKS

• MISSION ANALYSIS
• Prepare charts for mission analysis
• Prepare terrain sketches
• Update and post unit reports/status
• Prepare TOC for planning process
• Conduct mission analysis
• Serve as a recorder during process
• Brief commander and staff

X X X X X
X X X X X
X X
X

• COMMANDERS GUIDANCE
• Assist Cdr in developing guidance
• Issue guidance
• Record/post Cdrs guidance

X
X
X X
X X

• COA DEVELOPMENT
• Prepare charts
• Sketch COAs
• Develop COAs

X
X
X
X X
FM 101-5 pg K-2
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NCOs In The Military Decision Making
Process (continued)
PLANNING PROCESS
COMMANDER
STAFF OFFICERS
STAFF NCOs
RTOs/CLERKS

• COA ANALYSIS
• Collect and prepare tools/charts
• Serve as a war-game recorder
• Conduct war-game session

X
X
X X
X X

• DECISION
• Make recommendation to Cdr
• Decide
• Record/post Cdrs guidance

X
X
X X
X X

• ORDERS PREP
• Write annexes
• Consolidate annexes
• Type order
• Reproduce orders/graphics
• Review order
• Approve order

X X X
X X
X X
X X X X
FM 101-5 pg K-2
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MILITARY DECISIONMAKING PROCESSWorkshop 2
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Military Decision Making Process Step 3
Output
Input
Restated Mission
COA Stmts / Sketches
Course of Action Development
Cdr's Guidance / Intent
- Analyze Relative Combat Power - Generate
Options - Array Initial Forces - Develop the
Scheme of Maneuver - Assign Headquarters -
Prepare COA Statements / Sketches
Staff Estimates
Enemy COAs
FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-11
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Course of Action Development Criteria

• Suitability
• Feasibility
• Acceptability
• Distinguishability
• Completeness

FM 101-5 pg 5-11
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COA 1
CFL 52 DIV
CFL 52 DIV
LOA (PL WISCONSIN)
LOA (PL WISCONSIN)
200100 MAY 97
200100 MAY 97
37
OBJ SABER

42
TONGDUCH
O/O FEBA (PL FLORIDA)
O/O FEBA (PL FLORIDA)
OBJ KNIFE
OBJ BAYONET
PL IOWA
PL IOWA
AA
SCABBARD
PL NEBRASKA
PL NEBRASKA
X 52 ID X MNC X

3 X 1
LD/LC (PL NEVADA)
LD/LC (PL NEVADA)
Course of Action BDE attacks frontally with two
task forces abreast at 200630 May 97 with a mech
heavy task force conducting the main attack in
zone in the east to seize OBJ BAYONET to defeat
an enemy battalion. Priority of indirect fires
initially to counterbattery then neutralization
of enemy forces at the point of attack. Smoke
will be used to isolate enemy positions at
the point of attack. A 20 minute prep on the
OBJs will be fired to suppress enemy forces. An
infantry battalion conducts a supporting attack
in zone in the west to seize OBJ KNIFE to defeat
an enemy battalion. A tank heavy task force
follows the mech heavy task force and assumes the
main effort to defeat the second echelon
battalion vicinity OBJ SABER. Lead battalions
provide frontal and flank security. A mech team,
brigade reserve, follows the tank heavy task
force prepared to reinforce the main effort or
respond to threats to LOC. DS, R artillery and
Q36 radar will initially position forward along
PL NEVADA. One battery from the DS and one
battery from the R battalion will initially move
behind the lead Co/Tms in the right and left
zone, respectively. The Q36 radar will move with
the mech heavy TF. BDE Main CP will position vic
PL NEVADA prior to attack. TAC CP will follow
mech heavy TF. Risk is accepted by having a
small reserve in order to mass combat power on
the objective.
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COA 1
CFL 52 DIV
CFL 52 DIV
LOA (PL WISCONSIN)
LOA (PL WISCONSIN)
O/O
O/O
37

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TONGDUCH
FEBA (PL FLORIDA)
FEBA (PL FLORIDA)

TAC

PL IOWA
PL IOWA

EA DALLAS
EA AUSTIN
MAIN
AA SCABBARD
PL NEBRASKA
PL NEBRASKA

X 52 ID X MNC X
AA HILT
3 X 1
PL NEVADA
PL NEVADA
Course of Action On order, BDE defends from PL
FLORIDA to PL NEVADA with two task forces abreast
to defeat the advance guard and lead battalions
a task force in depth, the defeat mechanism, will
counter attack to defeat the enemy. Forward
battalions establish screen from PL WISCONSIN to
PL FLORIDA. The tank heavy task force establishes
a combat outpost in TONGDUCH to engage enemy
reconnaissance and force deployment of the
Advanced Guard Battalion. Indirect fires
neutralize Advance Guard in security zone. A tank
heavy task force, main effort, in the east
defends in sector from PL FLORIDA to PL IOWA to
defeat the advance guard and first echelon
battalion. An infantry battalion in the west
defends in sector from PL FLORIDA to PL IOWA to
defeat a first echelon battalion. A mech heavy
task force occupies AA SCABBARD on order main
effort counterattacks into EA DALLAS or EA
AUSTIN to defeat the second echelon battalion.
Priority of fires to main effort battalion. Use
blocking obstacles to shape EA DALLAS or EA
AUSTIN once enemy main effort is identified, to
support mech heavy TFs CATK. A mech team,
brigade reserve, occupies AA HILT, prepared to
defeat penetrations of PL NEBRASKA or respond to
level II rear area threats. DS and R artillery
with Q36 radar positioned forward between PL
FLORIDA and PL IOWA. Risk is accepted by having a
small reserve in order to defeat penetrations of
PL NEBRASKA.
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COA 1
CFL 52 DIV
CFL 52 DIV
LOA (PL WISCONSIN)
LOA (PL WISCONSIN)
200100 MAY 97
200100 MAY 97
37
OBJ SABER

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TONGDUCH
O/O FEBA (PL FLORIDA)
O/O FEBA (PL FLORIDA)
OBJ KNIFE
OBJ BAYONET
PL IOWA
PL IOWA
AA
SCABBARD
PL NEBRASKA
PL NEBRASKA
X 52 ID X MNC X

3 X 1
LD/LC (PL NEVADA)
LD/LC (PL NEVADA)
Course of Action BDE attacks frontally with two
task forces abreast at 200630 May 97 with a mech
heavy task force conducting the main attack in
zone in the east to seize OBJ BAYONET to defeat
an enemy battalion. Priority of indirect fires
initially to counterbattery then neutralization
of enemy forces at the point of attack. Smoke
will be used to isolate enemy positions at
the point of attack. A 20 minute prep on the
OBJs will be fired to suppress enemy forces. An
infantry battalion conducts a supporting attack
in zone in the west to seize OBJ KNIFE to defeat
an enemy battalion. A tank heavy task force
follows the mech heavy task force and assumes the
main effort to defeat the second echelon
battalion vicinity OBJ SABER. Lead battalions
provide frontal and flank security. A mech team,
brigade reserve, follows the tank heavy task
force prepared to reinforce the main effort or
respond to threats to LOC. DS, R artillery and
Q36 radar will initially position forward along
PL NEVADA. One battery from the DS and one
battery from the R battalion will initially move
behind the lead Co/Tms in the right and left
zone, respectively. The Q36 radar will move with
the mech heavy TF. BDE Main CP will position vic
PL NEVADA prior to attack. TAC CP will follow
mech heavy TF. Risk is accepted by having a
small reserve in order to mass combat power on
the objective.
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MILITARY DECISIONMAKING PROCESSWorkshop 3
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Military Decision Making Process Step 4
Input
Output
Enemy COA
Course of Action Analysis

War Game Results
COA Stmts / Sketches
- Conduct War Game
Task Organization
Staff COA
Mission to Subordinates
CCIR
FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-16
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Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Rules

• Remain unbiased
• List advantages and disadvantages (as found)
• Continually assess COA feasibility,
  acceptability, and suitability
• Avoid drawing premature conclusions and gathering
  facts to support such conclusions
• Compare COAs during comparison process Not
  during war game

FM 101-5 pg 5-16
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Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Steps

• Gather the tools
• List all friendly forces
• List assumptions
• List known critical events and decision points
• Determine evaluation criteria
• Select the war game method (avenue/belt/box)
• Select method to record and display results
  (synch matrix or sketch note)
• War game the battle and assess the results

FM 101-5 pg 5-17
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Course of Action Analysis War Game
Results 1 OF 3

• Modified COA
• Modified location and timing of the decisive
  point
• Identification of key terrain
• Refinement of enemy event template matrix
• Refinement of task organization
• Identification of subordinate units tasks
• Allocation of combat, CS and CSS assets to
  subordinates
• The synchronization matrix and decision support
  template
• Estimate duration of each critical event / entire
  operation
• Projection of enemy force destruction
• Identification of location and commitment of
  reserve

FM 101-5 pgs 5-23, 5-24
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Course of Action Analysis War Game
Results 2 OF 3

• Identify likely times and areas for enemy use of
  WMD and friendly NBC requirements
• Most dangerous enemy COA
• Location of commander and CPs
• Identify additional critical events
• Identify additional CS and CSS requirements
• Requirements for deception and surprise
• Refined C2 requirements
• Finalize CCIR and IR with LTIOV
• Finalize RS plan
• Refined CCIR and incorporate into RS plan and
  graphics

FM 101-5 pgs 5-23, 5-24
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Course of Action Analysis War Game
Results 3 OF 3

• Develop FS, Engr, AD, IO, CSS plans and graphics
• Identify / confirm DPs / NAIs, TAIs
• Timing of force concentration initiation of the
  attack or counterattack
• Develop the intel collection and dissemination
  plan
• Determine movement times and tables
• Identify, analyze, and evaluate strengths and
  weaknesses of the COA
• Integrate targeting process
• Synchronize smoke
• Identify additional risks, develop control
  measures

FM 101-5 pgs 5-23, 5-24
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Military Decision Making Process Step 5
Output
Input
Course of Action Comparison
War Game Results
Decision Matrix
- Assess Risk - Compare COAs - Recommendation
Establish Criteria
FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-24
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Course of Action Comparison

• Select comparison method
• Determine decision criteria
• Assign weighting values to criteria
• Make recommendation

FM 101-5 pg 5-24
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MILITARY DECISIONMAKING PROCESSWorkshop 4
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If the band played a piece first with
the piccolo then with the brass horn, then with
the clarinet, and then with the trumpet, there
would be a hell of a lot of noise but no music.
To get harmony in the music, each instrument
must support the others, to get harmony in
battle, each weapon must support the others.
Team play wins.
General George S. Patton
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Orders
There is a type of staff officer who seems to
think that it is more important to draft
immaculate orders than to get out a reasonably
well-worded order in time for action to be taken
before the situation changes or the opportunity
passes.
BH Liddell Hart Thoughts on War 1933
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Military Decision Making Process Step 6
Output
Input
Approved COA
Course of Action Approval
Decision Matrix
Refined Cdrs Intent
- Select COA - Assess Risk - Specify Type of
Order
Specified Type of Order / Rehearsal
High Pay-Off Target List
Warning Order 3
FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-26
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OPORD / OPLAN Development Guidelines /
Characteristics 1 OF 2

• Address critical facts and assumptions
• Authoritative expression
• Positive expression
• Avoiding unqualified directives
• Balance
• Simplicity
• Be concise
• Clarity
• Completeness

FM 101-5 pgs H-3, H-4
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OPORD / OPLAN Development Guidelines /
Characteristics 2 OF 2

• Coordination
• Flexibility
• Clear, concise mission and intent statements
• Centralized planning
• Decentralized execution
• Use of existing resources
• Timeliness

FM 101-5 pgs H-3, H-4
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Military Decision Making Process Step 7
Input
Output
Orders Production
Approved COA
OPORD / OPLAN
- Translate into Plan / Order - Incorporate
Branches and Sequels - Establish Control
Measures - Synchronize Plan / Order
FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-26
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NCOs In TOC OPS
TOC FUNCTION
XO
BATTLE CPT
STAFF NCOs
RTOs/CLERKS

• RECEIVE INFORMATION
• Monitor situation
• Receive messages/reports
• Maintain journal
• Update post unit locations
• Update status boards/charts

X
X X
X X X X X
X X X X

• DISTRIBUTE INFORMATION
• Submit reports
• Publish orders
• Pass messages/reports within TOCs

X X X
X X X
X

• ANALYZE INFORMATION
• Review in/out going reports/orders
• Conduct predictive analysis
• Identify CCIR
• Conduct TDMP
• Serve as recorders
• Develop terrain Sketches
• prepare charts and overlays

X X X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X
X
X
MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO CDR
X
INTEGRATE/SYNCH RESOURCES
X
Reference CALL Newsletter 95-12, DEC 95,
Tactical Decision Making Abbreviated Planning
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NCO Use

• NCOs involvement
• Enforce duties and responsibilities
• Battlestaff trained NCOs

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Military Decision Making Process
Rehearsal
- 5 Types of Rehearsals - Confirmation
Brief - Backbrief - Combined Arms
Rehearsal - Support Rehearsal - Battle
Drill or SOP Rehearsal
FM 101-5 pgs 5-2, G-1/2
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Military Decision Making Process
Execution Assessment
FM 101-5 pg 5-2
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Common Problems In Applying The MDMP

• Using intelligence tools/products properly
• Forgetting the enemy has a vote
• Providing adequate commanders guidance
• Intent
• Developing/analyzing courses of action
• War-gaming
• Presenting information for decision
• Format/content
• Meeting timeline guidance

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MILITARY DECISIONMAKING PROCESS