Title: Introduction to investing
1Introduction to investing
- Brought to you by
- Online Share Trading
- Presented by
- Simon Pateman Brown
2- You dont have to be wealthy to invest.
- But you do have to invest to be wealthy.
- Warren Buffett
- (Richest person in the world
- US62billion)
3Why are we providing free education?
- A study found that people do not invest in shares
when they do not understand them - An educated investor is more likely to be a
successful investor and hence a long term
investor - We want our clients to be successful so that they
continue to invest with us - If you lose money you stop investing and we lose
you as a client! - The more people invest with us the lower the fees
can be - Our brokerage fees have fallen over the last 5
years
4Educate yourself!
Name Duration Cost When
Introduction to investing 5 hours Free Saturday morning
How to use the website 2 hours Free Mid-week evening
Investing using fundamentals 1.5 hours Free Mid-week evening
Technical analysis (Part 1) 5 hours Free Saturday morning
Company announcements fundamentals 5 hours Free Saturday morning
Market truths and trading skills 1.5 hour Free Mid-week evening
Introduction to share installments 1 hour Free Mid-week evening
Half day detailed warrants course 4 hours Free Saturday morning
Technical analysis (Part 2) 5 hours Free Saturday morning
Futures (single stock currency) 1.5 hours Free Mid-week evening
Market outlook (6 to 12 month view) 1.5 hours Free Mid-week evening
5- Who is the course aimed at?
6Who is the course aimed at?
- Wide appeal.
- Novice investor.
- Some one new to the share market.
- Review or recap on the basics.
7 8Introduction to share investments
- Investing in the share market is not a pastime,
is must be taken seriously. Investors require an
education and the tools before they can hope for
any measure of success. - There are no magic formulas or Holy Grails to
becoming rich investing in shares, but through
education, you will be in the driving seat
regarding your financial freedom.
9The general misconception
- Misinformation regarding the share market.
- My friend Richard made a killing in ABC company,
and now hes got another hot tip!!. - "Watch out, with shares-you can lose your shirt
in a matter of days!. - Get rich quick mentality.
- e.g. The amazing dotcom market in the late 90s
Didata. - Shares can (and do) create massive amounts of
wealth, but they aren't without risks. - The key to protecting yourself in the share
market is to understand where you are putting
your money.
10Investing and Returns
- What is investing?
- Putting your money to work for you.
- Investing is more than simply hoping that luck is
on your side (Gambling). - Successful investing is committing capital only
if there is a reasonable expectation of profit. - Why Invest?
- Financial security.
- What do you invest in?
- What are your average returns?
- What are the fees that you are paying?
11 12Risk
- Investing is all about managing risk.
- Types of risks
- Business risk
- Financial risk
- Liquidity risk
- Exchange rate risk
- Country / Political risk
- Portfolio risk
- Psychological risk
- Neglect
13How is risk managed
- Diversification is a technique that reduces risk
by allocating investments among various financial
instruments, industries and other categories. - "Dont put all of your eggs in one basket..
- Move to five shares.
14JSE investments Risk vs. Return
Futures
Warrants
Increasing risk of loss of purchasing
power Increasing safety of capital
Share instalments
Increasing risk of loss of capital Increasing
potential for capital appreciation
Small caps shares
Blue chip shares
Cash / Fixed deposits
Start here
15What is a reasonable return?
- Return must compensate for
- Time value of money during investment period
- The expected rate of inflation
- Risk in the business
- Market return (beat the market or buy Satrix40)
- Buy the winning stock in the winning sector
16 17Why the share market?
Source JPMorgan
18Why the share market?
- Over a long period of time, shares generally
outperform any other type of investment often
experience extreme returns. - Different types of strategies
- Growth (reinvests profits to grow the business)
- Income (distributes most of profits as dividends)
- Speculating (short term buy/sell)
- Buy and hold
- Liquidity (speed of sale or purchase)
- Accessibility
- Youre in control
19Why the share market?
- An investment of R5000 in Standard Bank in 1990
when the share price was R1.77. Jan 08 it was
R126, Jun 08 R75 now worth R211k, a return of
over 4,220 excluding dividends (386c in 2007). - Note that one can also experience extreme losses
e.g. Didata.
18 September 1995 R3.20 18 September 1999
R23.80 18 September 2000 R69.60 18 September 2001
R10.70 18 September 2002 R2.40 18 September 2007
R8.01
20- Before you start investing
21Develop an investment strategy
- INTENT
- What stage of life are you at?
- Young
- Married with children
- Retirement
- What knowledge stage are you at?
- Whats your style? Know thyself
- What is your risk profile and risk tolerance?
- Being able to master risk is being able to master
the markets - Success depends on ensuring that your investment
strategy fits your personal characteristics. - What is your investment time frame?
- Invest, buy hold or speculate?
22Investment policy
- What are the real risks of an adverse financial
outcome, especially in the short term? - What probable emotional reaction will I have to
an adverse financial outcome? - How knowledgeable am I about investments and the
share market? - What other capital or income source do I have?
How important is this part of the portfolio to my
overall financial position? - What, if any legal restriction maybe applicable
to my investment needs? - What, if any unanticipated consequence of interim
fluctuation in portfolio value. - Dont risk more then you can afford to loose
23Common Mistakes
- No investment strategy
- Investing in individual shares instead of in a
diversified portfolio of securities. - Investing in shares instead of in companies.
- Buying high and selling low.
- Churning your investments.
- Acting on tips and sound bites.
- Paying too much in fees and commissions.
- Decision-making by tax avoidance.
- Unrealistic expectations.
- Neglect.
- Not knowing your real tolerance for risk.
- Averaging down.
24- The mechanics of the share market
25What is a share?
- Your share of a company you have invested in.
- If a company does well (is growing its profits)
then its share price should rise. - Likewise if a company is not doing well (is
making losses) then its share price should fall. - You can profit from share price movements and
share income (dividends). - You have a right to your say.
26What is a share market?
- Like any other market.
- Requires buyers and sellers.
- Shares are bought or sold when buyers and sellers
agree on a price.
27JSE Over the last 45 years
- Logarithmic scale
- Excluding dividends
28Different types of shares
- Ordinary shares.
- Preference shares Retail notes (bonds).
- Exchange Traded Funds (EFT).
- Satrix
- DB x-trackers
- NewGold
- PropTrax
- Derivatives.
- Options (Warrants (calls puts), Share
Instalments) - Futures (Single Stock Futures and Currency
futures) - Contract for difference - CFD
29Shares vs. Other investments
JSE share type Alternate investment JSE advantage
Ordinary shares Owning a business Liquidity and costs
Property unit trust Owning property Costs and liquidity
Satrix Unit trust Costs
DB x-trackers Off-shore unit trusts Foreign allowance and exchange rate
Preference shares and retail notes Fixed deposits Liquidity and better rates (does not track normal share)
New Gold Gold/ Kruger rands Physical storage and liquidity
30Share categories
- Income shares.
- companies which pay large dividends.
- Blue chip shares.
- Issued by companies with long histories of growth
and stability. - Growth shares.
- Issued by entrepreneurial companies experiencing
a faster rate of growth. - Cyclical shares.
- Issued by companies that are affected by general
economic trends. - Defensive shares.
- The opposite of cyclical shares.
31Different types of market
- Primary market.
- New issues of ordinary and preference shares are
sold by companies to the public to raise new
capital. - Initial public offering (IPO).
- e.g. Pick n Pay may issue shares to grow the
number of supermarkets it has. - Secondary market.
- This is what people are talking about when they
refer to the share market" . - Allow trading in issued shares in the market.
32Characteristics of a good share market
- High liquidity.
- Timely and accurate information.
- Price continuity.
- Low transaction costs.
- JSE meets all the above mentioned criteria.
33What are share indices?
- The market performed well today what do they
mean when they refer to the market? - An index is a way of measuring the performance of
a selection of shares across the market. - When an index is up it means that on balance the
share price of most of the shares in that index
have increased that day. If the index is down
then on balance most share prices of the shares
on the market have decreased that day. - Indices can be used as market barometers for the
market as a whole. - Examples of well know indices are
34What determines a share price?
- Supply and demand.
- Market Issues.
- Overseas markets.
- Interest rates and inflation.
- The economy.
- Government policy.
- Company issues.
- Earnings prospects.
- Management.
- Strategic initiatives.
- Competitive environment.
35How to make money in the stock market
- You can make money with shares in two ways
- Buying a share at a low price and selling that
share at a higher price at a future date This is
referred to as capital growth. - e.g. buying Sanlam on 02 Jan 2007 for R19.00 per
share and selling on 02 Jan 2008 for R22.81. A
profit of R3.81 per share or a return of 20 over
that period of time. - From dividends received from a share. This is
referred to as income. - Growth and income are usually mutually exclusive.
36What is a dividend?
- Dividends can be seen to be like tax free
interest earned on the share. - Dividends are distributions of a companies
earnings to shareholders. The dividend earned on
shares depends on the profits earned by the
company and payment is decided by the company. - The return that you receive from dividends can be
expressed as and is referred to as the dividend
yield.
37Dividend Yield
- The return that you receive from dividends can be
expressed as and is referred to as the dividend
yield (like interest). - Dividend Yield
- Represents annual income from the share.
- Different for different types of shares.
- Income stocks DY 3-8, growth stocks DY 0-3.
Dividend per share Price per share
X 100
38The Dividend Yield - Example
- If you purchased Sanlam on 02 Jan 2007 at R19.00
you would have received a divided payment of
R0.77 per share. This is a return of 4 per share
(R0.77 / R19.00 4) - e.g. Sanlam paid a dividend of 77c in 2007, which
is a 4 tax free yield
39- Choosing companies to invest in
40Choosing companies to invest in
- Would you do business with them?
- General long term prospects.
- Will they be around in five years (or even better
forever)? - Do you know a bit about the business?
- Start with names you know and trust.
- Sound management.
- Financial strength and capital structure.
- Strong companies in strong sectors.
41Methods used to chose companies
- Fundamental analysis
- Involves looking at any data, besides the trading
patterns of the share itself, that can be
expected to impact the price or perceived value
of a share. - Technical analysis
- A method of evaluating shares by analyzing
statistics generated by market activity, such as
past prices and volume.
42Put another way
- The story- what the company does what its
outlook is (e.g. Pick n Pay is a supermarket
chain. The outlook could be good for the economy
and hence for personal spending could lead to
more purchases at Pick n Pay hence the profits
could be up and hence the share price could go up
as well). - The numbers review the financial statements
of the company to see how healthy it is (Look at
the income statement to see the profitability of
Pick n Pay. Look at the balance sheet to see how
financially secure it is). Look at the Price
Earnings (PE) Ratio. - The picture look at the history of the
companies share price in a price chart (e.g. look
at the past performance to see if the share is
rising or falling, what is its trend?).
Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
43 44The story (eg Pick n Pay)
From the Standard Online Share Trading Website
45The numbers (e.g. Pick n Pay)
From the Standard Online Share Trading Website
46Share Price vs. Value
- Company A is worth R1m
- Issues 100,000 shares
- Each share is worth R10
- Company B is worth R1m
- Issues 10,000 shares
- Each share is worth R100
- Which company is cheap based on price?
- Share price alone does not always tell the full
story. - P/E ratio will be used to explain the concept of
price vs. value. - A 10 rise in Company A , is the same as a 10
rise in Company B. - Price per share is not the same as amount
invested.
47The Price earnings ratio (P/E)
- PE ratio is one of the most widely regarded
barometers of a companys value. - It establishes a direct relationship between the
profitability of a companys operations (EPS or
the earnings per share) and the share price. - P/E ratio price of share
- (EPS)
- It allows you to compare one share to another
within the same sector. - If Pick n Pay has a share price of R36.00 and
Spar has a share price of R60.00 which one would
you buy? PE helps you.
48The importance of the P/E Ratio
- Is this stock expensive?
- MNO Co has a net profit (EPS) of R2000 for the
year - Asking price is R100 000
- P/E R100 000
- R2 000
- 50
- Is this stock cheap?
- ABC Co has a net profit (EPS) of R2000 for the
year - Asking price is R12 000
- P/E R12 000
- R2 000
- 6
- This means that the business would pay for itself
in 6 years instead of 50, which is much more of a
sane purchase! - Income stocks P/E10-15, growth stocks P/E 20-30.
49The importance of the P/E Ratio
- ABC Co has a net profit (EPS) of R2000 for the
year - Asking price is R12 000
- P/E R12 000
- R2 000
- 6
- XYZ Co has a net profit (EPS) of R6000 for the
year - Asking price is R24 000
- P/E R24 000
- R6 000
- 4
50Fundamental analysis
Uses key financial indicators to analyse company
performance.
Growth
Price/earnings
Income
Dividend Yield
51Price Earnings Ratio where do you get it?
- Our website makes it easy by giving you the PE
ratios. - You simply need to understand what it means.
Pick n Pay _at_ R36
Spar _at_ R60
52Using the website
53Using the website
- The return that you receive from dividends can b
54 55The Picture (e.g. Pick n Pay)
From the Standard Online Share Trading Website
56Three core concepts of technical analysis
- The market discounts everything.
- Price moves in trends.
- History tends to repeat itself.
57Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis
Both have their place, up to the individual
how/which to use.
Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis
Charts Financial Statements
Short term long-term
Trading Investing
Focuses on what actually happens in the market Focuses on what ought to happen in the market
58Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis
Charts are based on market action involving Price Volume Time Factors involved in price analysis Supply and demand Seasonal cycles Weather Government policy Company policy and management
59In Practice
- One major advantage of technical analysis is that
experienced analysts can follow many markets and
market instruments, whereas the fundamental
analyst needs to know a particular market
intimately. - Use fundamentals to choose and technical's for
timing.
60 61The website (e.g. Pick n Pay)
- We help you by providing a research report that
covers - the numbers
- the story
- the picture
From the Standard Bank Online Share Trading
Website
62Profile Consensus forecast
63- Buying and selling shares
64Buying and selling shares
- Top down approach
- Select strong markets
- Select strong sectors within those markets
- Select strong stocks within that sector
65Buying and selling shares
- Decide what you want to do and capital out lay
(quantity). - Place an order
- Limit price or market price
- Life of trade
- Establish exit strategy
- Start feeling like an owner.
66What Type Of Order Do I Place?
- Price
- Market order
- requires immediate execution of the trade at the
best possible price available at that time. Be
careful using these orders particularly for
warrants as the market can move overnight. - Limit order
- A limit order is an order to buy or sell a
predetermined amount of shares at a specified
price or better. Note that a limit order may
match over multiple days and hence incur multiple
fees. - Life
- Day order
- An order that expires at the end of the business
day if it has not been filled. - Good Till Cancelled (GTC)
- An order either to buy or sell a security that
remains in effect until the customer cancels the
order or alternatively until it is executed by
the broker (valid for 1 month). - Special orders
- Stop loss
- A order that trades after a specific level has
been reached (fixed or trailing - valid for 1
months).
67What Type Of Order Do I Place?
An at market order would be purchased at R30.60
for a maximum of 661 shares. A limit order
could be placed at say R30.55 and become the best
bid to buy.
68 69Market Depth
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
2 200 400 402 600 3
3 450 399 403 2000 5
1 150 398 404 800 4
4 700 397 406 500 1
6 950 396 407 1000 2
70Market Depth
Price (in cents) Time Priority
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
2 200 400 402 600 3
3 450 399 403 2000 5
1 150 398 404 800 4
4 700 397 406 500 1
6 950 396 407 1000 2
Decreasing Price
Increasing Price
71Market Depth
Number of individual orders
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
2 200 400 402 600 3
3 450 399 403 2000 5
1 150 398 404 800 4
4 700 397 406 500 1
6 950 396 407 1000 2
Total number of shares to be sold
Total number of shares to be bought
72Market Depth - expand
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 100 400 402 200 1
1 100 400 402 300 1
3 450 399 402 100 1
1 150 398 403 2000 5
4 700 397 404 800 4
73Market Depth new order
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 500 402 402 600 3
2 200 400 403 2000 5
3 450 399 404 800 4
1 150 398 406 500 1
4 700 397 407 1000 2
6 950 396
74Market Depth left over
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
2 200 400 402 100 1
3 450 399 403 2000 5
1 150 398 404 800 4
4 700 397 406 500 1
6 950 396 407 1000 2
75Market Depth new order
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 1000 402 402 100 3
2 200 400 403 2000 5
3 450 399 404 800 4
1 150 398 406 500 1
4 700 397 407 1000 2
76Market Depth partial match
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 900 402 403 2000 5
2 200 400 404 800 4
3 450 399 406 500 1
1 150 398 407 1000 2
4 700 397
77 78Market Depth
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 900 402 403 2000 5
2 200 400 404 800 4
3 450 399 406 500 1
1 150 398 407 5000 2
4 700 397 408 500 1
79Market Depth
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 5000 _at_ market 403 2000 5
1 900 402 404 800 4
2 200 400 406 500 1
3 450 399 407 5000 2
1 150 398 408 500 1
80Market Depth
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 5000 _at_ market 403 2000 5
1 900 402 404 800 4
2 200 400 406 500 1
3 450 399 407 5000 2
1 150 398 408 500 1
81Market Depth
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 3000 _at_ market 404 800 4
1 900 402 406 500 1
2 200 400 407 5000 2
3 450 399 408 500 1
1 150 398 410 50 1
82Market Depth
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 2200 _at_ market 406 500 1
1 900 402 407 5000 2
2 200 400 408 500 1
3 450 399 410 50 1
1 150 398 413 500 5
83Market Depth
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 1700 _at_ market 407 5000 2
1 900 402 408 500 1
2 200 400 410 50 1
3 450 399 413 500 5
1 150 398 414 200 1
84Market Depth
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 900 402 407 3300 2
2 200 400 408 500 1
3 450 399 410 50 1
1 150 398 413 500 5
4 700 397 414 200 1
85At market order final price
- Average price paid
- Brokerage will be charged based on a single
transition.
Price Quantity Total
403 2000 8,060
404 800 3,232
406 500 2,030
407 1700 6,919
Total 5000 20,241
Average Price 405c Average Price 405c Average Price 405c
86 87Possible outcomes in the share market
BIG PROFIT
Small Profit
Break Even
0
Small Loss
BIG LOSS
Use a Stop Loss to Avoid Big Losses
-
Make sure you do not lose money and you are half
way there!
88Stop Loss Notification
89Types of stop losses
- An initial stop is designed to protect your
capital. - A breakeven stop will help lock in a no-loss
trade. - Trailing stops are designed to protect your
profit. - Determine style of stop loss
- Know your intent
- Volatility
- Previous lows
90Fixed stop loss illustration
91Trailing stop loss illustration
92How the stop loss is executed
- Works on the last traded price, not bid and offer
- Market may move overnight
- Example
- Trigger 402c
- Lowest trade price acceptable 399c
- Order quantity 2000
93Stop loss order execution
Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Bid to Buy Offer to Sell Offer to Sell Offer to Sell
Number Quantity Price Price Quantity Number
1 900 402 399 2000 1
2 200 400 408 500 1
3 900 399 410 50 1
1 150 398 413 500 5
4 700 397 414 200 1
94 95Online Share Trading Costs
- Brokerage is charged at 0.6 of the trade with a
minimum fee of R70 plus statutory taxes. - Monthly fees of R50.00 (incl VAT). This fee
waived if you trade 3 or more times in a month. - Worked Example
96Impact of costs on your investments
A - R1,559,694
Difference of R288K in returns
B - R1,271,699
97 98Warren Buffet Chairman Berkshire Hathaway
- If past history was all there was to the game,
the richest people would be librarians. - Rule No1 Never lose money Rule No2 Never forget
rule No1. - Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
- Key lesson Stop loss, education
99John (Jack) BogleFounder and Chairman of The
Vanguard Group
- If you have trouble imagining a 20 loss in the
stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks. - Key lesson Stop loss, know your risk profile
100Peter Lynch Former fund manager, today he is
vice-chairman of Fidelity
- Go for a business that any idiot can run -
because sooner or later, any idiot probably is
going to run it. - Key lesson Know the companies you are investing
in.
101George Soros Founder of Soros Fund Management
- It's not whether you're right or wrong that's
important, but how much money you make when
you're right and how much you lose when you're
wrong. - Key lesson Stop loss
102John Templeton Founder of the Templeton Group
- The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to
buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best
time to sell. - Key lesson Be contrarian.
103Benjamin Grahamfather of value investing
- To achieve satisfactory investment results is
easier than most people realize to achieve
superior results is harder than it looks. - Key lesson Do your home work.
104Benjamin Grahamfather of value investing
- Intelligent investment is more a matter of mental
approach than it is of techniques. - A sound mental approach toward share fluctuations
is a touchstone of all successful investment
under present-day conditions . - Key lesson Dont be emotional.
105 106Summary
- Investing in the share market makes sense.
- Good companies perform in the long term.
- Jargon can be overcome.
- Research before you buy.
- Buying and selling share is easy.
- Move towards 5 stocks quickly.
107 108Attend How to use the website presentation
All courses can be booked online
109Subscribe to the Daily Standard
110Explore the website Site map
111Disclaimer
- The information and opinions stated in this
document are of a general nature, have been
prepared solely for information purposes and do
not constitute any advice or recommendation to
conclude any transaction or enter into any
agreement. It is strongly recommended that every
recipient seek appropriate professional advice
before acting on any information contained
herein. Whilst every care has been taken in
preparing this document, no representation,
warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is
given as to the accuracy or completeness of the
information or representations. All information
contained herein is subject to change after
publication at any time without notice. The past
performance of any investment product is not an
indication of future performance. Online Share
Trading is operated by Standard Financial Markets
Proprietary Limited Reg. No. 1972/008305/07, a
subsidiary of the Standard Bank Group Limited and
authorised user of the JSE Limited.