Australia Fire Weather Forecasting

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Australia Fire Weather Forecasting

• March 2-24, 2007
• Mary-Beth Schreck
• NWS Wichita, KS

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Biggest Question Why Did We Go?

• 2005 2006 fire season very bad
• Brought people out of retirement to help out
• That resource was used up
• El Nino developing by October 2006
• Means hotter and drier summers for Australia
• Even more help needed for 2006 2007 season
• Australia and US already working together to
  implement GFE in the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)
• Many of the details already worked out to have a
  partnership between the two countries
• Australia BoM applied for funding to bring US
  forecasters over to help with forecasts

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Fall/Winter Rainfall Anomalies
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Land Area Comparison

• The continental United States is slightly larger
  than Australia

• Tasmania is approximately the same size as South
  Carolina

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Flying into Melbourne

• Left ICT Friday afternoon (LT)
• Arrived in Melbourne Sunday morning (LT)
• 2 Forecasters from NWS in this shift
• 2 Forecasters from Predictive Services (BLM)

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First Views of Australia
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Flying out of Melbourne
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Days 2 3 Training
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Day 4 Flying to Hobart
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Day 4 Flying to Hobart
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Hobart Facts

• Australias southern most capital city
• 2nd driest capital city in Australia 24
  rainfall annually (compared to 30 at ICT)
• Fishing and tourism very big industries
• Time zone is GMT 10 hours
• Hobart population 150,000
• Tasmania population 300,000
• Latitude is about 43 degrees S
• Comparable to Southern OR, Northern IA, Southern
  WI, Southern VT/NH

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Bureau of Meteorology - Hobart
Operations - 7th Floor (of 8 total) Public
Information 5th Floor
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Operations
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BoM Hobart Routine Duties

• Land Areas Forecasts
• Hobart Forecast
• Tasmanian Cities/State Forecast
• Precis Forecast for Tasmanian Cities
• District Forecasts
• Via Clickable Map
• TV Briefing Notes
• Macquarie Island Forecast
• Marine Forecasts
• Via Clickable Map
• Tasmanian Coastal Waters Forecast
• Bass Strait and Approaches Forecast
• SE Inshore Boating Weather Forecast
• High Seas Forecast
• Tide Predictions for Tasmania

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BoM Hobart Warning Products

• Marine Warnings
• Almost always at least one warning in effect
• Severe Weather warnings (mostly fire weather)
• Flood Warnings
• Road Weather Alert
• Sheep Graziers Warnings (large temp. changes)
• Tsunami Warnings
• Bushwalking Weather Alerts

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Severe Weather Bench Duties

• Prepare fire weather model guidance
• Participate in morning temperature discussion
• Prepare fire weather outlooks
• Prepare fire weather forecast
• Participate in afternoon temperature discussion
• Prepare forecast and outlook graphics
• Prepare/update any spot forecasts that need to be
  issued

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ABC TV

• BoM Meteorologist does TV weather forecast M-F on
  7pm news

• All (3) network TV stations owned by the
  government
• TV commercials are made by the lowest bidder
  and therefore have a very local feel
• Newscasts are ½ hour long with no commercial
  breaks
• Avg. of 12 to 14 stories per newscast

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October 12, 2006Eastern Shore of Hobart
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October 12, 2006 Surface Analysis
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Sea Elephant Road Fire

• King Island
• 18th February 2007
• 12,500ha

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18th Feb 2007
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Any Questions?