New Fuels and Technologies for Powertrains

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New Fuels and Technologies for Powertrains

• State of the Art and prospective for the
  Automotive Industry

Oscar Ciordia FITSA Foundation GM
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Yet another summary crystal ball?

• The world is full of congresses, scientific
  publications, books, etc describing the
  Transport Sector efforts on solving the
  sustainability issues and trying to guess the
  future.
• BUT
• Is there a complete, rigorous, synthesis of all
  the eforts?
• Is there a compelling synthesis on the views for
  the future?
• The answer is NO

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Goal

• Make a thorough knowledge search on the
  scientific literature for all the technical
  proposals on powertrains and alternative fuels.
• Synthesis and coherence work to build a manual
  that compiles in a brief publication tons of
  written papers and abstracts.
• Review all the relevant forecasts on future
  technology share and look for agreements. Build
  the most agreeded upon future based on it.

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Topic of today

• We will describe the process and results from the
  forecasting exercise.
• Benefit Conclusions of the final forecast.
• The work is currently just in Spanish. FITSA is
  glad to give the rights for translation and
  publication in any other language for non profit
  purposes.

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Methodology (I)

• Based on the well known Delphi method.
• The Delphi method is based on the assumption that
  group judgments are more valid than individual
  judgments.
• The Delphi method was developed at the beginning
  of the cold war to forecast the impact of
  technology on warfare http//www.rand.org/pubs/pa
  pers/2006/P3925.pdf It was developed by Project
  RAND during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer,
  Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Resche

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Methodology (II)

• Key characteristics and benefits of Delphi
• Structuring of information flow
• The initial contributions from the experts are
  collected in the form of answers to
  questionnaires and their comments to these
  answers.
• The panel director controls the interactions
  among the participants by processing the
  information and filtering out irrelevant content.
  
• This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face
  panel discussions and solves the usual problems
  of group dynamics.
• Regular feedback
• Participants comment on their own forecasts, the
  responses of others and on the progress of the
  panel as a whole.
• At any moment they can revise their earlier
  statements. While in regular group meetings
  participants tend to stick to previously stated
  opinions and often conform too much to group
  leader, the Delphi method prevents it.
• Anonymity of the participants
• Usually all participants maintain anonymity.
  Their identity is not revealed even after the
  completion of the final report.
• This stops them from dominating others in the
  process using their authority or personality,
  frees them to some extent from their personal
  biases, minimizes the "bandwagon effect" or "halo
  effect", allows them to freely express their
  opinions, encourages open critique and admitting
  errors by revising earlier judgments.

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Process followed (I)

• 1st Different technical alternatives for fuels
  and propulsions analyzed in detail with the
  following criteria
• Socioeconomic impact.
• Energy efficiency.
• Pollutants and CO2 emissions.
• 2nd Definition of key parameters
• By selected experts from all affected actors.
• Affecting the future viability of the technology.

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Key parameters
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Process Followed (II)

• 3rd A weight was assigned to each parameter
  according with its influence on the market
  introduction.

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Process Followed (IV)

• 4th For each technology rank each parameter
  according to a 1 to 5 scale on 2007-2010-2015-2020
  time steps

Example for Raw Matls. Energy Res.
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Process Followed (V)

• 5th A final score was calculated using each
  parameter weight.

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Process Summary
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Results (Powertrains)

• ICE will remain on leadership for next future
  due to its cost, investments, reliability and
  fuel flexibility.
• HCCI and CAI will increase share very, very
  slowly.
• HEV and EV considerable penetration rate
  short-mid term helped by Policy support.
• FC slow penetration conditioned by
  infrastructure (also for H2 in ICEs) and
  Technology development.

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Results (Fuels)

• Biodiesel, bioethanol, GTL, BTL increase share
  on 2015 with 2nd generation biofuels.
• BTL shows higher penetration rate starting with
  high scale production. Better environment and
  efficiency behavior helps. Same trend for
  Ligno-ethanol.
• LPG and NG increase penetration with NG winning.
  NG is a clear winner for most UE countries.
• H2 grows slow due to infrastructure.

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Discussion (I)

• The best discussion is to put ourselves face to
  face with the plethora of forecasts

EUCAR
EARPA
HYNET
FURORE
HYWAYS
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Discussion (II)

• FI (intro date) date when the technology or fuel
  penetration will start
• FC (consolidation date) gt 80 market penetration
  is expected.
• RD period (in red)
• Market growth (in yellow)
• Mass penetration (in green).

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Road Maps key messages agreed

• Some modifications as i.e. EGR, catalysts, etc,
  are already in the market and they are undergoing
  an important development. The rest of the
  modifications as Stop Start, DPF, etc will be
  probably introduced in a short-term in all
  vehicle models
• Alternative fuels as GTL and LPG, will not
  consolidate in the market. Due to the fact that
  they do not entail any GHE reduction.
• Biofuels and in the mid-term the second
  generation biofuels are one of the most promising
  alternatives to reduce GHE and petrol dependence
  followed in the long-term by hydrogen generated
  by renewals.
• HCCI and CAI are proposed as a bridge towards
  fuel cell propulsions although it seems that they
  will not dominate the market.
• HRV and EV are good alternatives but it is
  necessary to accommodate current electric
  infrastructure and its technological development.
  Cross the Chasm
• FC will increase market share slowly as it will
  also be the case with hydrogen in ICE. (Yet
  another infrastructure??)

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Summary (90 of world agrees)
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MIX-MIX MIX

• Clear future trend towards energy
  diversification and the coexistence of different
  technologies and fuels.
• Each technology will impact on different market
  niches attending to their fitness for different
  applications.

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SHRINK IT!
Most likely scenario will be controlled by a high
percentage of more efficient petrol and diesel
propulsions and with a higher specific
performance.
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GATHER IT!
For alternative fuels the European objective of
20 of total consumption by 2020 will be probably
reached thanks to the usage of biofuels, second
generation biofuels and natural gas.
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Zap it!!!
Market share for EV and HEV will reach more than
10 in 2015 thanks to cost reductions (economies
of scale and technological development).
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YAI?......... Yet Another Infrastructure?
As far as hydrogen in ICE is concerned, it will
participate in this diversification as well,
although it will probably be replaced in the
long-term by FC based propulsions as soon as the
technology and the infrastructure are developed
and cost is decreased.
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Thanks for your attention!!!
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