Mike Carey, Naval Center for Cost Analysis

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Mike Carey, Naval Center for Cost Analysis Paul
Hardin, Technomics Inc.
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Outline

• Objective
• Existing Models and Applications
• Model Design (Phase 1)
• CER Development
• Inputs
• Outputs
• Model Enhancements (Phase 2)

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Objective

• Provide an Operating and Support Cost Estimating
  capability to the VAMOSC user community

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Existing Models and Previous Applications

• Leveraging VAMOSC VIEWS for ships, Technomics has
  developed OS cost estimating models for a
  variety of applications and customers
• OS estimates developed for the following
  programs
• CVN
• Tactical Air Ship Study
• Alternative Propulsion Study
• Australian Frigate
• MAMDJF AoA
• LCS

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Model Design (Phase 1) - CER Development

• Leverage VAMOSC VIEWS data and concepts
• Depending on cost element, develop personnel or
  weight-based CERs sensitive to
• Age
• Economies of scale
• OPTEMPO
• Develop Personnel and Fuel related estimating
  relationships that can be used when information
  is not available

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Model Design (Phase 1) - Inputs

• Required
• Ship Type
• Weight
• Number of Ships
• Ship Life (Years)
• Optional (if unknown, model can provide
  estimates)
• Personnel
• SHU and SHNU
• Fuel Consumption Underway and Not Underway
• Fuel Price per Barrel

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Model Design (Phase 1) - Outputs

• Cost in FY07
• Steady-State Average Annual Cost per Ship
• Total Cost per Ship and Class
• Annual Cost per Class - profiled over life of
  program
• Risk / Sensitivity Analysis
• Graphical and Tabular Displays showing estimates
  by percentiles
• Derived from uncertainty distributions generated
  for each cost element based on the CER residuals
  (i.e., actual versus estimated data)

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Model Enhancements (Phase 2)

• Capability to provide estimates for Multiple Ship
  Classes, Quantities and Build Plans (i.e., Fleet
  Level Analysis and Trade-offs)
• Provide costs in TY