LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System

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LEAPLong-range Energy Alternatives Planning
System

• Charlie Heaps
• Stockholm Environment Institute-Boston/Tellus
  Institute
• www.seib.org/leap
• leap_at_tellus.org

April 2003
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Highlights

• Integrated energy-environment, scenario-based
  modeling system.
• User-friendly data entry, scenario management and
  reporting tools.
• Scope demand, supply, resources, environmental
  loadings (emissions), cost-benefit analysis,
  non-energy sector emissions.
• Methodology Physical accounting of energy. Also
  spreadsheet-like expressions, for econometric and
  simulation modeling.
• Time-Frame medium to long-term, annual
  time-step, unlimited number of years.
• Data requirements low initial data requirements.
  Many aspects optional. Start-out simple and add
  detail later.
• Geographic Applicability local, national,
  regional.

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What Can You Do With LEAP?

• Energy outlooks (forecasting)
• Energy balances and environmental inventories.
• Integrated resource planning.
• Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis.
• Strategic analyses of sustainable energy futures.

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Scope

• Energy Demand
• Choice of methodologies from top-down
  econometric to bottom-up end-use analysis.
• Flexible hierarchical data structures.
• Basic methodology energy activity level x
  energy intensity.
• Final or Useful energy intensities.
• Special features for modeling transport sector
  energy and emissions.
• Energy Conversion (Transformation)
• Simulation of any energy conversion and
  transportation sector (e.g., electric generation,
  transmission distribution, oil refining,
  charcoal making, coal mining, oil extraction,
  ethanol production, hydrogen production, etc.)
• Choice of simulations for dispatch of processes
  (e.g. simple shares or merit-order dispatch to a
  load-duration curve).
• Exogenous and/or endogenous modeling of capacity
  expansion.
• Energy Resources
• Resource requirements, production, sufficiency,
  imports and exports.
• Optional land-area based accounting for biomass
  and renewable resources.
• Costs
• Capital, fixed and variable OM, fuel,
  environmental externalities.
• Environment
• Emissions and direct impacts of energy system.
• Database includes emission factors for 100s of
  technologies (including all IPCC factors)
• Non-energy sector sources and sinks.

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Selected Applications
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Selected Applications

• Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Studies Argentina,
  Bolivia, Cambodia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Lebanon,
  Mali, Mongolia, Korea, Senegal, Tanzania, Vietnam
  and many others.
• Energy and Carbon Scenarios Chinese Energy
  Research Institute (ERI) and U.S. National Labs.
• Envisioning a Hydrogen Economy in 7 U.S. Cities
  Tellus Institute/NREL.
• U.S. Light Duty Vehicle Energy Use and Emissions
  for U.S. transportation NGOs.
• Multi-stakeholder Greenhouse Gas Action Plan
  Rhode Island State Government, USA.
• APERC Energy Outlook Energy forecasts for each
  APEC economy.
• East Asia Energy Futures Project Study of energy
  security issues in East Asian countries including
  the Koreas, China, Mongolia, Russia, Japan.
• Rural Wood Energy Planning in South Asia
  FAO-RWEDP.
• Integrated Resource Planning Malaysia,
  Indonesia, Ghana.
• Integrated Transportation Studies Texas (Tellus)
  and 7 Asian Cities (AIT).
• Sulfur Abatement Scenarios for China Chinese
  EPA/UNEP.
• Global Energy Studies Tellus Institute
  Greenpeace.

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Demand Modeling Methodologies

• Final Energy Analysis e a ? i
• Where eenergy demand, aactivity level, ifinal
  energy intensity (energy consumed per unit of
  activity)
• Example energy demand in the cement industry can
  be projected based on tons of cement produced and
  energy used per ton. Each can change in the
  future.
• Useful Energy Analysis e a ? (u / n)
• Where uuseful energy intensity, n efficiency
• Example energy demand in buildings will change
  in future as more buildings are constructed a
  incomes increase and so people heat and cool
  buildings more u or building insulation
  improves -u or as people switch from less
  efficient oil boilers to electricity or natural
  gas n.

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A Simple Demand Data Structure
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Transformation Modules
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Social Cost-Benefit Analysis in LEAP

• Societal perspective of costs and benefits (i.e.
  economic not financial analysis).
• Avoids double-counting by drawing consistent
  boundary around analysis (e.g. whole system
  including.
• Cost-benefit analysis calculates the Net Present
  Value (NPV) of the differences in costs between
  two scenarios.
• NPV sums all costs in all years of the study
  discounted to a common base year.
• Optionally includes externality costs.

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Simple Example of Cost-Benefit Analysis

• Two scenarios for meeting future growth in
  electricity lighting demand
• Base Case
• Demand future demand met by cheap incandescent
  bulbs.
• Transformation growth in demand met by new
  fossil fired generating capacity.
• Alternative Case
• Demand DSM programs increase the penetration of
  efficient (but more expensive) fluorescent
  lighting.
• Transformation Slower growth in electricity
  consumption and investments to reduce
  transmission distribution losses mean that less
  generating capacity is required.

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Simple Cost-Benefit Analysis (cont.)

• The Alternative Case
• uses more expensive (but longer lived)
  lightbulbs.
• Result depends on costs, lifetimes, discount
  rate.
• requires extra capital and OM investment in the
  electricity transmission distribution system.
• Result net cost
• ..requires less generating plants to be
  constructed (less capital and OM costs).
• Result net benefit
• requires less fossil fuel resources to be
  produced or imported.
• Result net benefit
• produces less emissions (less fuel combustion).
• Result net benefit (may not be valued)

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TED The Technology and Environmental Database
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Typical Data Requirements
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..Compared to DOS Version of LEAP

• Windows-based tool.
• Visual editing of data (tree and RES diagram).
• Flexible data structures.
• Wider choice of methodologies including useful
  energy analysis and transport stock turnover.
• Spreadsheet-like expressions allow simulation and
  econometric modeling techniques to be used within
  overall accounting framework.
• User-friendly reporting capabilities.
• Import/export to Excel/Word.
• Internet enabled for updates and technical
  support.

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Forthcoming

• New data being developed for TED.
• Improvements to TED to allow for easier updating
  of data.
• Limited Optimization.
• Software translations French, Spanish, Chinese.

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Minimum Hardware/Software Requirements

• Windows 98 or later
• 400 Mhz Pentium PC
• 64 MB RAM
• Internet Explorer 4.0 or later
• Optional Internet connection, Microsoft Office

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Status and Dissemination

• Available at no charge to non-profit, academic
  and governmental institutions based in developing
  countries.
• Download from http//www.seib.org/leap or on CD
  distributed at this meeting.
• Technical support from leap_at_tellus.org
• User name and password required to fully enable
  software. Available on completion of license
  agreement.
• Most users will need training available through
  SEI-Boston or regional partner organizations.
• Check LEAP web site for news of training
  workshops.

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View Bar

• Analysis View where you create data structures,
  enter data, and construct models and scenarios.
• Results View where you examine the outcomes of
  scenarios as charts and tables.
• Diagram View Reference Energy System diagram
  showing flows of energy in the area.
• Energy Balance standard table showing energy
  production/consumption in a particular year.
• Summary View cost-benefit comparisons of
  scenarios and other customized tabular reports.
• Overviews where you group together multiple
  favorite charts for presentation purposes.
• TED Technology and Environmental Database
  technology characteristics, costs, and
  environmental impacts of apx. 1000 energy
  technologies.
• Notes where you document and reference your data
  and models.