Pest Risk Analysis

1
Pest Risk Analysis

• International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC)

2
SPS Definition

• Risk assessment -- the evaluation of the
  likelihood of the entry, establishment, or spread
  of a pest or disease and the associated
  potential biological and economic consequences
  ... (SPS Annex A)

3
IPPC Definition

• The process of evaluating biological or other
  scientific and economic evidence to determine
  whether a pest should be regulated and the
  strength of any phytosanitary measures to be
  taken against it -- (1997 IPPC)

4
PRA Obligations

• SPS Article 5.1 -- Members shall ensure that
  phytosanitary measures are based on an assessment
  of the risks
• IPPC Article II -- technically justified
  (phytosanitary measures) justified on the basis
  of conclusions reached by using an appropriate
  pest risk analysis ...

5
Standards and PRA

• Phytosanitary measures must be based on
  international standards or justified on the basis
  of PRA (SPS Articles 3 5)
• Deviations from standards must be justified by
  PRA (SPS Article 5)
• Provisional (emergency) measures must be reviewed
  using PRA (SPS Article 5)

6
PRA and Trade

• Few specific phytosanitary standards have been
  done, therefore most phytosanitary measures must
  be justified by PRA
• PRA is used to
• justify protection measures affecting trade
• evaluate or challenge others measures
• encourage technical dialogue/info sharing
• prioritize risk management and research

7
The Role of Scientists

• Recognize that regulatory policy is dependent on
  scientific inputs
• Actively participate, support, and influence
  regulatory decision-making with trade-sensitive
  scientific inputs
• Ensure that plant pests are only a barrier to
  trade when and where appropriate

8
Evolution of PRA in the IPPC

• ISPM 2 Guidelines for PRA
• Supplementary standards
• Pest categorization
• Probability of introduction
• Economic impact
• Risk management

9
And More Evolution

• Concept standard
  Guidelines for PRA (to be revised)

Supplementary Standards
Pest Risk Analysis for Regulated Non-Quarantine
Pests
Pest Risk Analysis for Quarantine Pests
10
Stages of PRA

• Initiation
• Risk Assessment
• probability
• consequences
• Risk Management
• Transparency
• uncertainty

11
Initiation Stage

• Pest-initiated
• detection (interception or incursion)
• research or biological control
• Pathway
• commodity evaluation
• other regulated article
• policy review or change

12
Risk Assessment Stage

• Presence/absence/distribution
• Official control
• Introduction potential
• Establishment potential
• Spread potential

13
Elements of Risk Assessment

• Probability
• With pathway
• Escapes detection
• Survives transit
• Favorable location
• Overcomes resistance
• Able to reproduce and spread

• Consequences
• Direct economic
• Indirect economic
• Environmental
• Other
• Political
• Social
• aesthetic

14
Risk Management Stage

• Identify options
• Evaluate options for
• efficacy
• feasibility
• impacts

15
Transparency

• Document information sources
• Identify processes/methods
• Provide rationale for conclusions/decisions
• Describe uncertainty and identify data gaps or
  areas for additional research