Petroleum Economics

1
Petroleum Economics
Istvan Csato Department of Geological
Sciences University of South Carolina January
2002 Source EIA
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World Oil Demand
Oil Consumption
Declines

• Oil embargo, 1973
• Revolution in Iran, 1979
• Economic crisis in Asia and FSU,
• 1997-98

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World Oil Demand
Increments in Oil Consumption by Region
Largest increase Asia
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World Oil Demand
Oil Consumption per Capita by Region
Declines

• Industrialized countries
• oil price crises
• EE/FSU collapse of communism
• Developing countries no decline

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World Oil Demand
Oil Intensity by Region
Continuous decline
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World Oil Demand
Oil Consumption by Sector
Main area of growth

• Industrialized countries
• Transportation
• Developing countries
• Other uses

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World Oil Demand
Oil Consumption in the Developing World
Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020
China 6.1 MBD South Korea 1.2 MBD India 3.9
MBD Middle East 5.3 MBD Africa 2.9 MBD Central
and South America 4.7 MBD
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World Oil Demand
Oil Consumption in the Industrialized World
Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020
USA 6.3 MBD Mexico 2.2 MBD Canada 0.3
MBD Western Europe 1.5 MBD Japan 0.35 MBD
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World Oil Demand
Oil Consumption in EE/FSU
Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020
FSU 4.1 MBD Eastern Europe 0.2 MBD
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World Oil Supply
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World Oil Supply
12
World Oil Supply
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World Oil Supply
World Oil Production by Region
More than 2/3 of increase in oil demand will be
supplied by OPEC
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World Oil Supply
OPEC Oil Production
Projected growth rate 3.4 per year
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World Oil Supply
OPEC and Non-OPEC production
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World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC production by Region, 2020
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World Oil Supply
Red OPEC member Blue Non-OPEC member
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World Oil Supply
Red OPEC member Blue Non-OPEC member
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World Oil Supply
814 B bbl
Total 1030 B bbl
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World Oil Trade