Technology Forecasting

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Technology Forecasting
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Technology Forecasting
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Technology Forecasting
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Forecasting of Technology

• Technology ? Applying a systematic technique,
  method or approach to solve a problem1
• Forecasting of Technology ? . . .
• Forecasting of Applying,
• Forecasting of Systems,
• Forecasting of Techniques/Methods,
• Forecasting of Solve,
• Forecasting of Problems.

• Note 1
• The application of science, especially to
  industrial or commercial objectives.
• The scientific method and material used to
  achieve a commercial or industrial objective.

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Forecasting of Technology
Product
Primary Function
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Forecasting of Technology
Product
Primary Function
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Es.Forecasting of Machine Tooling
Work Piece
machine
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Es.Forecasting of Photographic Camera
light
record
Focus adjust
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Es.Forecasting of Semantic Tool
Technology Nesting
concepts
show
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Es.Forecasting of Semantic Engine
words
tag
Database
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Es.Forecasting of lt?gt
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Methods for Technology Forecasting
Available Information Methods
Tacit Knowledge (Exp.) Delphi
Another Comparable System  Analogy Methods
Observation from System Extrapolation
Variables to be predicted Statistics
Phenomena Causal Relations
Back Link
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Methods for Forecast of Technology

• Forecasting of Technology
• Technology ? Applying a systematic technique,
  method or approach to solve a problem1
• Forecasting of Technology ? . . .
• Forecasting of Applying,
• Forecasting of Systems,
• Forecasting of Techniques/Methods,
• Forecasting of Solve,
• Forecasting of Problems.

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Methods for Forecast of Technology

• "TIPS" is the acronym for "Theory of Inventive
  Problem Solving"
• "TRIZ" is the acronym for the same phrase in
  Russian
• TRIZ was developed by Genrich Altshuller and his
  colleagues in the former USSR starting in 1946,
  and is now being developed and practiced
  throughout the world.
• The research has proceeded in several stages over
  the last 50 years.
• Over 2 million patents have been examined,
  classified by level of inventiveness, and
  analyzed to look for principles of innovation.

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Methods for Forecast of Technology

• TRIZ Basics Achievements
• Problems and solutions were repeated across
  industries and sciences
• Patterns of technical evolution were repeated
  across industries and sciences
• Innovations used scientific effects outside the
  field where they were developed

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TRIZ forecasting

• consists these major phases
• Analysis of the system's evolution study of the
  history of the system and its position on its
  "life curve" (S-curve)
• "Road mapping application of the Laws and Lines
  of Technological Systems Evolution to forecast
  functional and structural alterations in the
  system
• Problem formulation formulation of engineering
  problems to be solved so as to achieve targets
  set at the previous phase
• Problem solving solving the formulated problems
  by using powerful analytical and solution tools
  of TRIZ

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Analogy
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Extrapolation
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Statistics
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Causal Relations