COLLEGE%20OF%20NAVAL%20WARFARE,

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COLLEGE OF NAVAL WARFARE, MUMBAI - 400
001    15th Naval Higher Command
Course     December 2nd 2002   CHINAS
STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION AN ANALYSIS OF ITS
GLOBAL STRATEGIC IMPACT   Dr. W.LAWRENCE
S.PRABHAKAR, Ph.D., ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR,
DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE MADRAS CHRISTIAN
COLLEGE CHENNAI.
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Influences of SunZi, Confucius, Menicus on
Chinese Strategic Thought Strategic Culture
The most viable method to understand Chinese
Strategic Thought. - Civilizational
Antiquity - Unique Historical
Dynamics - Unique Geo-Strategic
Location - Unique Lingual Cultural
Heritage Sustenance of Strategic Culture over
5000 years - SunZi, The Art of
War - Confucius, The Analects - Predominant
Strategic Paradigm of China Confucius
Menicus Pragamatism Concept of Absolute
Flexibility Concept of The Three
Heavens Concept of The Middle Kingdom
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Salient Principles of Chinese Strategic
Thought - Deception The Essence of all
Warfare Subtlety, Sophistication, Maneuver,
Covert Operations and the Indirect
Approach - Centrality of Armed
Forces Political and Praetorian
Purposes Political Power Flows from the
Barrel of the Gun - Human Dimensions of
Conflict Primacy of Man Over Material
Primacy of Spirit and Life Energy Over
Matter - Essence of Counter Strategy Signif
icance of Winning Over the Adversary by negation
of his Strategy Primacy of Spirit and
Life Energy Over Matter - Peoples War Total
War (MaoTseTung) Peoples War Under Hi-Tech
Conditions (Limited War Conventional and
Nuclear Forces) - Primacy of Human Force Over
Technology Motivation, Resilience, Élan Vital
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Chinas Changing Strategic Doctrines - Domin
ant Elite in the Post 1949 Era MaoTseTung
DengXiaoPing Jiang Zemin MaoTseTung
Revolutionary Radical Militarism Peoples
War Nuclear Weapons Paper Tigers DengXiaoPin
g Pragmatic Flexibility Four Modernizations
Primacy of Economy and Technology Five
Changing Paradigms - Debate of Ideologue Vs
the Technocrat (MaoTseTung) - Integration
of Defence and Development (DengXiaoPing)
- Struggle against Nuclear Hegemony (US and
Soviet/Russian Domination) - Shift from
Disarmament to Nonproliferation - New
Paradigms of Chinese Nuclear Activism
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Strategic Determinants of Chinese Behaviour in
the Modernization Period - Pursuit of
Comprehensive National Power Economic
Technological Strength Basis for Strategic
Power - Sovereignty Concerns Taiwan
Reunification Disputes in the South China Sea
Conflict over Resources in the
Region Zealous preservation of vital National
Interest - Regime Maintenance Preservation of
Political Power Monopoly of Communist Party
Consolidation of Economic Strength under
Authoritarian Regimes - Dissatisfaction with
Current International Order China
Dissatisfied Power Penchant for Power
Expansion Anti-Hegemonic Defiance of
US Hegemonic Power Quest for Multi-Polarity
or Align with US as peer Partner - Sino US
condonmium
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Factors Affecting Chinese Strategic
Behaviour - Acculturation to International
Order Assumption that China would reform to
International Order Induction of China into
WTO would soften their aggressive behaviour
- Democratization Spread of Liberal Democracy
Hub for Political Reform Rule of Law,
Economic Liberalization, Free Markets,
Structural Reform - Future of the PLA
Vanguard of the Regime Bolster the Regime in
event of Crisis of Governance Dynamics of PLA
Modernization - PLA Strategic
Strengths Sizeable Conventional Forces 2.8
million compared to 1.4 million US 1.2
million Russia Man power Reduction and
Technological modernization Induction of New
Weapon Systems Technology intensive
drive - Strategic Nuclear Capability ICBMs
DF-31 (10-20) IRBMs MRBMs (DF-4, DF-5,
DF-3) - MIRV capability GPS/GLONASS/Twin Star
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Nuclear Naval Arsenal - Xia Class SSBNs Han
Class Ming Class Song Class Nuclear
SSNs Julang Class SLBMs JL-1 JL-2,
Modified Xia Class tipped with
JL-2 - Chemical Biological Weapons
China signatory of 1972 Chemical
Biological Conventions Clandestine CB
Warfare Capabilities Creation of Anti-CB
Warfare Units - Surface to Surface Missiles
Substantial Chinese Inventory of SSMs
Missiles Weapons of Quick Resort
Intimidation Tactics Icons of Chinese
Commercial Military Sales Missile
Modernization Improved Payloads Increased
Accuracy GPS Guidance Variable NBC
Payloads Geographical Terrain - Chinas
Geographical Terrain suited for Guerilla
Warfare Peoples War High Levels of
Attrition against Invading force - Causality
Tolerance Willingness to absorb High
Causality Korean War 300,000 to 1 million

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PLA Strategic Weakness - Obsolete Equipment
Ex-Soviet Vintage Mig19s (J-6), Mig21s
(J-7), T-54,T-55, Ex-Soviet MBT Chinese
Type 59, Type 62 MBTs PLA Navy
Warships, Ex-Soviet Riga Type frigate -
Jianghu Class Frigate Ex-Soviet Whiskey,
Romeo Class SS adapted in Chinese
Models - Poor Logistics Obsolescent
Air and Naval Logistical Capabilities
Defensive Nature of Military Campaign
Improvements in the anvil Procurement and
Buildup of Logistical Air Naval
Craft - Command, Control Communications
Deficiencies Lack of Hi-speed, Hi-bandwidth
redundant communication system Geographical
Spread Infrastructure weakness, Obsolescent
Equipment Advancement in C4I2SR Capabilities
as a result of RMA Chinese RMA Quantum Leap
in this Sector - Poor Quality of Personnel
Training Less Premium on Personnel training,
Less Time on Simulated Combat Operations
Lack of Joint Service Training
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Pathways in Chinas Military Modernization - Tw
o Pathways of Military Modernizations
Procurement from Foreign sources Various
Technologies Limited Means Divergent
Operating Platforms Operational
Difficulties Problems of Maintenance
Training Complications of Hardware
Induction Problems in License Production
Attempts to Reverse Engineering - Home
Grown Technologies Mass Production of
Licensed Technologies, Mixed Results,
Problems of Quality Control Technological
Lag Attempts to Hybridize Technology - Nucl
ear Weapons Initial Soviet Assistance
Self-reliance Indigenous Technological
Innovation - Ballistic Missiles Range of
Chinese Ballistic Missiles Chinese
Specialization in IRBM MRBM production and
Mass Export DF-11 (SRBM) to DF-51(ICBM)
Development of Solid propellants MIRV
Capabilities - Cruise Missiles
primarily antiship variety Ex-Soviet
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- HY-1 First Chinese Cruise Missile based on
SS-N2A STYX YJ-1 or C-801 Solid
Propellant Booster, 40 Km Range based on
French Exocet Similar Design YJ-2 or C-802
Solid Propellant Sustainer, 120 Km Range YJ-2
Land Attack Version/GPS equipped 180 Km with
TERCOM capabilities Induction of SS-N-22/23
M80 SUNBURN/MOSKIT equipped on Russian
supplied Sovremenny Class destroyers
- Nuclear Submarines 5 Han-Class SSNs 1
Xia-Class SSBN Type 093 SSN modeled after
Ex-Soviet Victor III SSN Type 094
SSN - SAMS HQ-2 Medium to High Altitude, Radar
Guided Ex-Soviet SA-2 HQ-7 Low to Medium
Altitude Radar Guided Ex-French Crotale
HN-5 Shoulder Portable Infra-Red Ex-Soviet
SA-7 QW1 Advanced Shoulder Portable Infra
Red Ex-US FIM-92 Stinger HQ-61 Low to Medium
Altitude LY-60 Low to Medium Altitude HQ-9
Advanced All Altitude SA-10 PAC
Patriot - New Fighter Attack Air Craft Current
PLAAF J-10 High Performance Single Engine FGA
produced with Israeli Russian Assistance
High-Low Mix Preference
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- Future Generation FGA-XXJ of SU27 and F-15
Class IOY 2015 Others Strategic
Programs - Chinese Space Launch Capabilities
Wide Variety of Space Payloads
Meteorological, Communications, Surveillance
New Generation of Photo Reconnaissance FSW-3
Series with 1 m Resolution Linkages with US
Landsat French SPOT Israeli EROS and
Russian Remote Sensing Satellites Chinese
Participation in Iridium, Globalstar
Satellite Communication Systems Partnership
in US GPS/ Russian GLONASS System - Directed
Energy Weapons New RD into High- Powered
Micro Wave Weapons and Lasers Advance
Research into Electronic Counter Measures
- Information Warfare Secret Chinese Efforts
in Offensive Defensive Strategies in IW
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• SEA POWER PERSPECTIVES OF CHINA SPECIFIC
  CONTEXT TO IOR, INDIA AND SOUTH ASIA
• PLA Naval Modernization and expansion
• Brown water to Green water capability Future
  Projections to Blue Water Capability Offshore
  Defense Concept.
• Sino-South Asian Maritime links Provides
  Chinas link to East Africa and Straits of Hormuz
  
• Port Calls Karachi, Colombo, Chittagong.
• Economic aid, technical assistance,military
  hardware supplies for low budget South Asian
  States/allies on concessional terms
• Sustained covert transfer of WMD technologies to
  Pakistan
• Pakistan Myanmar anchors for China in the South
  Asian Region - striving to neutralize India
• Karachi, Gawadar in Pakistan Hainggyi Katan
  islands Great Cocos in Myanmar.
• Role of COSCO in PLAN activities
• Future potential to base PLAN nuclear subs in the
  Arabian Sea SSN/SSGN access to Pakistan

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• PLA NAVAL STRATEGY SPECIFIC CONTEXTS TO IOR,
  INDIA SOUTH ASIA
• Naval diplomacy Port calls, joint naval
  exercises in the region
• Naval basing facilities Access to Gawadar in
  Pakistan, Yangon Hainggyi Akyab Mergui, Great
  Coco islands off Andaman Sea. SIGINT/ELINT
  facilities.
• Chinese arms transfers Massive military
  hardware supplies to Myanmar and Pakistan.
• China is comfortable with the authoritarian
  regimes in Pakistan and Myanmar
• Bolsters them with arms transfers for political
  security reasons
• Objective Tilt regional balance against India
  with tactical alliances and gain naval access in
  the region / Regional Naval alliance
• Control of Seagates Beijings objective is to
  control the critical sea straits Taiwan straits,
  Straits of Malacca, Singapore Straits and
  possibly uninterrupted access to the Straits of
  Hormuz.
• Apparent intent Rapid surge into the Indian
  Ocean via Straits of Malacca access to Myanmar
  and Pakistan.
• Integrated Sea Control Strategy Offshore Defense
  Concept Limited Sea control and Sea Denial
  capability through assortment of limited numbers
  of high performance surface combatants and
  submarines.
• Possible deployment of SSNs and SSGNs in the
  region.

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• SOUTH ASIAN REGIONAL NAVAL DEVELOPMENTS IN
  BEIJINGS INTEREST
• April 2001 Pakistan-Bangladesh joint naval
  exercises followed by a Pakistan naval squadron
  visiting Yangon
• Pakistans naval flotilla the first ever foreign
  naval flotilla to visit Yangon precedes
  Gen.Pervez Musharaffs visit to Yangon
• Implications of the new Pakistan - Bangladesh
  naval ties
• Recent sour in India-Bangladesh relations/
  Border skirmishes. Bangladesh militarys
  traditional hostility to India.
• Future possibilities Pakistans naval ships
  could dock in Myanmar waters during a possible
  conflict with India.
• Pakistani naval surveillance of Indian Naval
  activities in the Eastern / Far Eastern Naval
  Command
• Sino-Pakistani monitoring of telemetry data of
  Indian missile tests from Balasore Chandipur
  Missile test ranges.

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Source Reported Chinese Arms Purchases RAND
Research Report MR-1082-AF
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THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA THE FUTURE SUPER
POWER - Multi-Dimensional Regional Competitor
- Regional Aerospace Dominance - Regional and
Off-Shore Naval Power Projection - Increased
Defense Spending - Emphasis on Quality Vs
Quantity - Mature Defense Industrial
Base Rationalization of Defense - Industrial
Production Selective Integration of Foreign
High Technology Development of Technology Work
Force Long Range Strategic RD
Vision - Regional Hegemony Enhanced Global
Status - Enhanced Chinese WMD Warfare
Capabilities - Ambitious Space Faring
Power - Determined Long Range Power
Projection
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CHINAS GRAND STRATEGIES CHINA AND US gtChinese
perceptions of its emergent power
status. gtEmphasis on the development of
Comprehensive National Power(CNP) gtEmphasis on
development of RMA technologies. gtChinese
strategies of Cooptation and Prevention Dual
policies vis-à-vis US. gtEconomic engagement with
US Chinas constant endeavor to weaken US
Bilateral relations gtChinas entry to WTO
facilitation by US gtPost 9/11 developments
US-China convergence. gtNew US Strategic
perceptions of China in post-Quadrennial Review
Report 2001
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• CHINA and INDIA
• Sino-Indian relations A contest of the Asian
  Balance of Power.
• Chinas Strategic domain has overwhelming
  influence on India domestic external realms.
• Strategies of Engagement CSBMs TradeCounter
  terrorism.
• Indian Deterrence Power Response to Chinese
  renewed aggrandizement.Nuclear and Missile
  postures.Limitations are inherent.
• Multilateral Grand Strategic Alliances US, EU,
  Russia, Japan.
• India Expanded ties with ASEAN Counter balance
  PRCs influence.

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China Russia Bilateral Issues Contentious,
overspill could aggravate tensions. Military-Techn
ological Cooperation Positive signs
Sino-Russian Strategic alliance counter to US
NMD, unilateralism. Scenarios of Change I China
succeeds Reforms Transforms into hegemonistic
power.Russian interests affected. II.Chinas
reforms collapse instability/ local wars. III
Sino-Russian alliance against a hegemonistic
US. Sino-Russian Strategic Understanding 2001.
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China ASEAN Economics Securityforces of
unity and divergence. Pragmatism and Realism
Hallmarks of ASEAN-PRC relations ASEAN concerns
of PLA Modernization and Regional security. Local
wars and Strategic Symbolism of PLA force
postures Missile reality ASEAN Engagement of PRC
in regional peace stakes Good Regional
Atmospherics. ASEAN PRC Multilateral security
framework.
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China ASEAN Economics Securityforces of
unity and divergence. Pragmatism and Realism
Hallmarks of ASEAN-PRC relations ASEAN concerns
of PLA Modernization and Regional security. Local
wars and Strategic Symbolism of PLA force
postures Missile reality ASEAN Engagement of PRC
in regional peace stakes Good Regional
Atmospherics. ASEAN PRC Multilateral security
framework.
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CHINA RMA. Asymmetric WarfareCNP,
Economic-Technological quantum leaps New
Technologies and Weapons systems smart weaponry
and nano-technology Space combatRadiational
combatParalysis combat Cyber warfareRobot
combat Intelligent warfare Assassins Mace