New%20Dynamics%20of%20Security%20in%20East%20Asia

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New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

• May 18, 2006
• Regional Anatomy I
• Ken JIMBO

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Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East AsiaPolitical
Security Dimension
1) April 13 Overview and Introduction What is
Regionalism? 2) April 20 Regionalism Regional
Integration 3) April 27 Regionalism in Asia 4)
May 11 East Asian Community and East Asian
Summit 5) May 18 New Dynamics of Security in
East Asia
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Introduction Understanding Asia-Pacific Security

• Security Environment in Asia-Pacific
• European Theater and Asia Pacific Theater
• Impact of the End of Cold War
• Strategic Circumstances
• US Engagement
• Rise of Multilateral Security
• Prevailing Double Track Approach
• New Dynamics of Security in East Asia
• Strategic Circumstances
• US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia
• Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated
• Cooperative Security Multi-Layered Cooperation
• Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

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European Theater and Asia-Pacific Theater(During
the Cold War)
Warsaw Pact
NATO
European Theater (Regional Approach)
Asian Theater (Bilateral Approach)
Bilateral (Hub-Spokes) Alliances
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Impact of the End of the Cold WarFour Dimension

• In Europe
• Dissolution of Warsaw Pact
• NATO Expansion
• European Security Defense Policy (ESDP)
• ? In Asia, Hub-Spokes Remain the Same! But
• Four Dimension
• Strategic Circumstances
• US Engagement
• Rise of Multilateral Security
• Prevailing Double Track Approach

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End of the Cold War 1)Strategic
Circumstances

• Declining of Large Scale Threat
• Demise of East-West Confrontation
• Transformation of USSR
• Rising Regional Agenda
• Korean Nuclear Crisis (1993-94)
• Taiwan Straits Tensions (1996)

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End of the Cold War 2)US Military
Engagement

• Bush Sr. Administration (1989-1993)
• East Asian Strategic Initiative (EASI)
• gt Force Reduction Plan
• Clinton Administration (1993-2000)
• East Asian Strategic Report I (EASR I, 1995)
• gt US-Japan Alliance
• East Asian Strategic Report II (EASR II, 1998)
• gt Comprehensive Engagement

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End of the Cold War 3)Rise of Multilateral
Security

• Track-I Framework
• ASEAN Regional Forum
• (ARF lt1994-presentgt)
• Track-II Dialogues
• Council for Security Cooperation in Asia Pacific
  (CSCAP)
• Northeast Asian Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD)

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US East Asian Regional SecurityEASI-I (1990)
Our friends and allies in East Asia are
reluctant to enter into multilateral consultation
on security concern for a variety of reasons.
Foremost is the wide cultural, political and
economic diversity among most of the Asian states
which makes bilateral security arrangements much
more appropriate ?February 1990

• US Department of Defense, A Strategic
  Framework for the Asian Pacific Rim Looking
  toward the 21st Century. April 19, 1990.

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US East Asian Regional SecurityEASR (1995)
Some in the United States have been reluctant to
enter into regional security dialogues in Asia,
but I see this as a way to supplement our
alliances and forward military presence, not to
supplant them ?February 1995

• US Department of Defense, The United States
  Security Strategy for East Asia-Pacific Region,
  February 1995

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Prevailing Double Track Approach
(1995-2001?)
Deterrence/Response
Korean Peninsula Taiwan Straits
Alliance Mechanism
Cooperative Security
US-Japan Security Alliance US-Korea Security
Alliance
ARF
CBM / Preventive Diplomacy
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New Dynamics of Security in East Asia
(2001-Present)

• Strategic Circumstances
• US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia
• Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated
• Cooperative Security Multi-Layered Cooperation
• Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

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New Dynamics of
Security in East Asia 1)Strategic Circumstances

• Rise of Asymmetrical Warfare
• Terrorist Networks
• Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
  (WMD)
• Lingering Traditional Risks Reloaded
• Korean Nuclear Crisis (2002-present)
• Taiwan Straits
• Rise of China
• Rising Military Capability
• Responsible Stakeholder? (Robert Zoellick)

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Traditional Risks ReloadedNorth Korean
Missile Range (status 1994)
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Traditional Risks ReloadedNorth Korean
Missile Range (status 1998-)
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Traditional Risks ReloadedProliferation
RiskA.Q. Kahns Nuclear Black Market
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New Dynamics of Security in East
Asia 2)US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia

• Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2001/05
• Capability-Based Approach
• Static to Dynamic Defense Posture
• Transformation of US Military and the Global
  Posture Review (GPR)
• Reducing Size of US Forces
• Increase US Military Capability
• Enable Rapid Power Projection
• Regional-Global Forward Presence

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New Dynamics of Security in
East Asia 3)Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US
Alliance Renovated

• Japan-US Alliance Toward Global Alliance
• Common Strategic Objective on Regional / Global
  Context
• Roles, Missions and Capabilities (RMC) Sharing
• Relocation of US Bases in Japan
• Korea-US Alliance Constraint Transformation
• Future of Alliance Initiatives gt FOTA gt SPI
• Reduction of 12,500 US Troops from DMZ
• Cooperative Autonomous Defense

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New Dynamics of Security in East
Asia 4)Cooperative Security Multi-Layered
Cooperation

• Region-wide Security Mechanisms
• ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)
• Shangri-la Dialogue
• Sub-Regional Security Mechanisms
• Six-Party Talks
• Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
• Various Types of Military Exercises

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New Dynamics of Security in East
Asia 4)Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

• Counter- / Anti- Terrorism Cooperation
• Proliferation Security Initiatives (PSI)
• Trafficking Controls / Information Sharing
• Non-Traditional Security Cooperation
• SARS / Aviation Flu
• Anti-Piracy Cooperation
• Transnational Organized Crimes

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New Dynamics of Security in East Asia
Members Functions Inclusive / Regional (Geographical Cooperation) Exclusive / Functional (Regional Security Complex)
Forceful Competitive (Deterrence/Response) (Collective Security) Japan-US Alliance Korea-US Alliance
Unforceful Cooperative (CBM / PD) Shanghai Cooperation Organization ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Shangri-la Dialogue Proliferation Security Initiative Anti-Terrorism Cooperation Non-Traditional Security